Highlights:

In anticipation of higher demand for industry feed and protein meal, based on a recovery in swine production and steady growth in the poultry sector, China's soybean imports are forecast to hit a record of 86 million metric tons (MMT) in MY16/17, up from the estimated 83 MMT in MY15/16. Post's forecast for MY16/17 soybean imports is slightly lower than the official USDA data forecast of 87 MMT. China's recent sale of stored oilseed and oilseed product reserves (soybeans and rapeseed oil) is expected to absorb market share for food soybeans and vegetable oils. However, forecast lower imports of DDGS as a result of China's anti-dumping investigation may increase demand for soybean meal and thus support growth in soybean imports.

Executive Summary:

In anticipation of higher demand for industry feed and protein meal, based on a recovery in swine production and steady growth in the poultry sector, China's soybean imports are forecast to hit a record of 86 million metric tons (MMT) in MY16/17, up from the estimated 83 MMT in MY15/16. Post's forecast for MY16/17 soybean imports is slightly lower than the official USDA data forecast of 87 MMT. China's recent sale of stored oilseed and oilseed product reserves (soybeans and rapeseed oil) is expected to absorb market share for food soybeans and vegetable oils. However, forecast lower imports of DDGS as a result of China's anti-dumping investigation may increase demand for soybean meal and thus support growth in soybean imports.

MY16/17 Chinese soybean production is forecast to recover to 13 MMT

Due to recent change in the Chinese government's corn policy, domestic soybean production is forecast to recover in MY16/17 to13 MMT from the estimated 11.6 MMT in MY15/16. Post's MY16/17 production is higher than the USDA July 2016 official data of 12.2 MMT. This is based on a larger forecast planted area of 7.11 MHa (up 10.4 percent from the previous year) and a slightly higher yield. In late July, China's Ministry of Agriculture (MOA) announced that newly added soybean area reached 8 million Mu (or 533,000 Ha) in MY16/17 as a result of government's efforts and policy support to restructure the crop mix. In mid-August, The China Agricultural Outlook Committee (affiliated to MOA) raised MY16/17 soybean production to 12.86 MMT from its previous forecast of 12.76 MMT. The increase reflects expected higher yields due to favorable weather conditions. The China National Grain and Oilseed Information Center (CNGOIC) forecast MY16/17 soybean production at 12.6 MMT, up by 8.6 percent from last year. This is based on a larger planted area of 6.95 MHa, up 7.8 percent compared to the previous year.

An independent oilseed information source based in Heilongjiang province reported that the total soybean acreage in the four northeast provinces reached 3.61 MHa in MY16/17. This is a net increase of 1.25 MHa from the previous year. Similarly, the combined soybean planted area for all other provinces is forecast at 3.41 MHa, up by 327,000 Ha compared to last year. Thus, this source forecasts MY16/17 total soybean production will reach 14.1 MMT, up by 3.67 MMT from its estimated 10.43 MMT in MY15/16.

The the Heilongjiang province's soybean industry leader estimated that the MY16/17 corn acreage in the province is down by 1 million hectares (MHa), part of which was substituted with soybeans. One of the major branches of the Heilongjiang State Farm Bureau also reported that the branch's 2016 soybean acreage increased by 40 percent to 152,000 Ha from the 108,666 Ha last year. This is in response to the government's call for less corn planting and also to keep good crop rotation practices. The growth of MY16/17 soybean crop in the Northeast soybean-producing region is rated as “good" due to favorable weather conditions.

MY16/17 soybean imports forecast at 86 MMT

Post's forecast for MY16/17 soybean imports is 86 MMT. This is a net increase of 3 MMT from MY15/16 but lower than the USDA July 2016 official forecast of 87 MMT. Post's estimate for MY15/16 soybean imports coincides with USDA's official July estimate of 83 MMT, up by 4.65 MMT from MY14/15. According to the Global Trade Atlas, total soybean imports in the first ten months of MY15/16 stands at 68.4 MMT, up 8 percent over the previous year. CNGOIC estimates combined soybean arrivals in August and September could reach 14.6 MMT supporting MY15/16 soybean imports to 83 MMT. China's leading industry sources generally agree that MY16/17 soybean imports continue to grow to about 85 MMT. CNGOIC's current forecast is 85 MMT while China JCI's forecast stands at 84.6 MMT.

The profit margins for swine farmers in the first half of August remained high. Margins exceeded RMB500 ($76)/head but were much lower than the RMB1,000 ($151) to 1,500 ($227)/head in May. However, China's industry association estimated a slight fall in the 2016 pork production based on a slow recovery of the swine and sow inventory. Poultry production remained generally stable during July to August. Industry leaders estimate moderate growth for both poultry meat and eggs in 2016. Feed use during the month of August continues to grow as swine farmers continue to fatten pigs for the upcoming mid-autumn and national day festivals. In the second half of 2016, soybean meal use is expected to continue growing moderately. MOA forecast feed production growth is expected to level off during the 13th Five-Year Plan Period (2016-2020), with a yearly growth rate ranging from 1.5 to 2 percent or annual net growth of 4 to 6 MMT. The growth is mainly driven by swine (of which currently 75 percent are raised with industry feed) and ruminant farming. MOA estimates soybean meal use increased rapidly to 55 MMT in 2015, a net growth of 5.5 MMT from 2014. This is based on a small domestic supply of other protein meals and relatively low price for soybean meal (which is also supported by industry insiders).

Factors impacting China's soybean imports

The Chinese government's decision to sell part of its 6 MMT of stored soybean reserves is likely to impact soybean import growth in MY15/16 and MY16/17. As of August 23, six weekly auctions were held with sales totaling 1.04 MMT at relatively cheap price. The declining purchase rate is reportedly due to weak prices for soybean meal and oil since August. Weak prices coupled with soy food processors' concerns with quality impacted crusher's participation in the auctions. Currently, the auction price remains lower than the RMB3,500 (or $ 530)/ton for imported soybeans at ports in mid-August. The government continues to restrict the use of imported biotech soybeans for food processing. These factors might encourage food processors to continue purchasing from the upcoming auctions. Similarly, crushers may return to auctions if crushing margins improve. Otherwise, the total purchased volume by the end of September may not reach more than 2 MMT, much lower than expected 3 MMT. A favorable factor supporting soybean import growth is China's anti-dumping investigation against U.S. DDGS imports. This may result in 2 to 3 MMT less of DDGS imports in 2016. China's DDGS imports declined significantly to about 1.5 MMT during the first 6 months of 2016 compared to the 2.4 MMT in the previous year. As the anti-dumping investigation is pending, many industry insiders estimate total DDGS imports could fall to 3 MMT from the record 6.3 MMT in 2015 (or average yearly imports of 5 MMT in recent years). Lower DDGS imports in 2017 may continue and may boost China's use of soybean meal. Forecast lower rapeseed and cottonseed production in MY16/17 is also expected to be compensated by soybean imports for protein meal.

Forecast MY16/17 rapeseed production is 13.5 MMT

Based on a forecast planted area of 7 MHa, down 4.1 percent from the previous year, MY16/17 rapeseed production is forecast to fall by 5.6 percent to 13.5 MMT. CNGOIC's August estimate of MY16/17 rapeseed production stands at 14 MMT based on a relatively high acreage at 7.1 MHa.

MY16/17 rapeseed imports forecast at 3.9 MMT

Post's forecast for MY16/17 rapeseed imports is 3.9 MMT. This forecast is unchanged from the estimated imports for MY15/16, but is higher than the USDA official forecast of 3.8 MMT. Rapeseed imports face uncertainty as the Chinese regulatory authorities are likely to enforce stricter inspection rules in September 2016. Based on a new inspection requirement, rapeseed suppliers will be requested to reduce foreign matter content in rapeseed exports to China to 1 percent from the current 2.5 percent. The technical discussions between China and the major rapeseed exporting country to address China's quarantine concern on foreign matter were held in mid-August. However, there was reportedly no immediate breakthrough on the issue. This could impact China's import contracts as rapeseed harvest in major exporting country approaches.

Notwithstanding, industry sources indicate that in August Chinese buyers signed import contracts for 4 shipments of rapeseed from Canada implying that the industry remains confident on a consensus on the issue. Additionally, China's cumulative sales of state rapeseed oil reserves of 2.28 MMT (ending in June) are expected to satisfy part of the rapeseed product market for the rest of 2016. Positive news is the world rapeseed production in MY16/17 appears to be higher than the previous forecast. That said, a significant fall in rapeseed imports is not expected given China's large crushing capacity and lower-than-officially.

MY16/17 Chinese peanut production is up

MY16/17 peanut production is expected to grow to 17 MMT given its comparatively stable profits and also in response to lower government support for corn planting. CNGOIC's late July report raised MY16/17 peanut production to 17.7 MMT, up 7.7 percent over the previous year.

Forecast MY16/17 peanut imports remain strong

Post raised its MY15/16 peanut imports to 550,000 tons primarily due to price advantages for imported peanuts both in shell and shelled. Comparatively, Post forecast MY16/17 imports are down to 400,000 tons mainly based on expected high domestic production.

Chinese imports of both shelled and in-shell peanuts surged during the first three quarters of MY15/16. Peanut import shipments usually decline during July to September as the crushers try to avoid the hot season to guarantee oil quality and domestic crop partly will enter market in late August. Currently, Post forecast MY16/17 imports are 400,000 tons given the MY16/17 domestic peanut acreage seems to be expanded greatly coupled with a continuing depreciation of Chinese currency, both adding pressure on import profit margins.

MY16/17 cotton seed production is expected to fall to 8.3 MMT

Post's forecast MY16/17 cotton seed production is 8.3 MMT, significantly lower from the 11 MMT in MY14/15, and lower than the estimated 8.9 MMT in MY15/16. In response to low profit expectations due to the government's low support for cotton production, Post's forecast for MY16/17 cotton acreage is more than 9 percent lower than the previous year. According to a survey done in May by the China Cotton Association, MY16/17 cotton acreage is expected to fall by 10 percent from MY15/16.

Forecast MY16/17 vegetable oil imports level off

Based on the high crushing volume of oilseeds and the sales of state oilseed product reserves, China's vegetable oil imports in MY15/16 declined and continue to be flat in MY16/17. MY16/17 soybean oil imports are forecast at 650,000 tons, unchanged from MY15/16 estimate. MY16/17 rapeseed oil imports are forecast at 700,000 tons, down from the estimate 750,000 tons for MY15/16. Peanut oil imports are forecast at 130,000 tons in MY16/17 from the estimate of 120,000 tons in MY15/16. Due to the relatively cheaper prices for Ukraine and Russia supplies, and Chinese consumer's diversified preferences for vegetable oil, sunflower seed oil imports are up to 0.8 MMT in MY15/16 and expected to remain similar level in MY16/17.

Post's estimate for MY15/16 palm oil imports are lowered to 5 MMT based on lower than expected imports in recent months. Weaker palm oil imports are due to a combination of factors: resumption of export duty in exporting countries; weak demand for palm oil; an adequate supply of other vegetable oils; and depreciation of the Chinese currency. Palm oil imports were 3.8 MMT in the first ten months of MY15/16, significantly down from the 4.6 MMT in the previous year. Palm oil imports may recover moderately during August through September given low domestic palm oil stocks. Domestic palm oil stocks are estimated at less than half of the average level in the past five years. Post's preliminary forecast for MY16/17 palm oil imports are up to 5.2 MMT. However, this is significantly lower than the average 5.95 MMT during MY12/13 to MY14/15.

Since late 2015, China began to sell its aged rapeseed oil reserves, estimated at 6.41 MMT. Based on CNGOIC, as of June 1, 2016, a total of 2.28 MMT of rapeseed oil reserves were sold. The 2.28 MMT of rapeseed oil sold is expected to reach end-users impacting vegetable oil market in the second half of 2016. The government suspended the auction of rapeseed oil in June without an official public notice. Based on CNGOIC's estimate China's state rapeseed oil reserve stands at about 4.1 MMT.

Oilseeds PSD Tables

Soybeans

PSD Table

Country

Commodity

China, Peoples Republic of

Oilseed, Soybean (1000 tons; 1000 Ha)

2014/15

2015/16

2016/17

Post

Post

Post

USDA

Estimate

USDA

Estimate

USDA

Estimate

Official

New

Official

New

Official

New

Market Year Begin

10/2014

10/2015

10/2016

Area Planted

7,700

6,800

6,600

6,440

6,200

7,110

Area Harvested

6,800

6,800

6,440

6,440

6,800

7,110

Beginning Stocks

13,877

13,877

17,034

16,234

15,984

14,984

Production

12,150

12,150

11,600

11,600

12,200

13,000

MY Imports

78,350

78,350

83,000

83,000

87,000

86,000

MY Imp. from U.S.

29,697

29,697

28,500

28,000

30,000

29,500

MY Imp. from EU

0

0

0

0

0

0

Total Supply

104,377

104,377

111,634

110,834

115,184

113,984

MY Exports

143

143

150

150

150

150

MY Exp. to EU

10

0

10

10

10

10

Crush

74,500

74,500

81,800

81,500

87,000

86,000

Food Use Dom. Cons.

10,200

11,000

10,800

11,400

11,200

11,700

Feed Waste Dom. Cons.

2,500

2,500

2,900

2,800

3,000

3,000

Total Dom. Cons.

87,200

88,000

95,500

95,700

101,200

100,700

Ending Stocks

17,034

16,234

15,984

14,984

13,834

13,134

Total Distribution

104,377

104,377

111,634

110,834

115,184

113,984

CY Imports

81,740

81,740

83,500

83,500

89,000

86,000

CY Imp. from U.S.

28,000

28,413

29,000

29,000

30,000

30,000

CY Exports

133

133

150

150

150

150

CY Exp. to U.S.

70

70

70

50

70

50

Rapeseed

Country

Commodity

China, Peoples Republic of

Oilseed, Rapeseed (1000 tons;1000 Ha)

2014/15

2015/16

2016/17

Post

Post

Post

USDA

Estimate

USDA

Estimate

USDA

Estimate

Official

New

Official

New

Official

New

Market Year Begin

10/2014

10/2015

10/2016

Area Planted

0

7,588

0

7,300

0

7,000

Area Harvested

7,588

7,588

7,300

7,300

7,000

7,000

Beginning Stocks

1,036

1,036

1,499

1,499

1,048

998

Production

14,772

14,772

14,300

14,300

13,300

13,500

MY Imports

4,591

4,591

4,250

3,900

3,800

3,900

MY Imp. from U.S.

0

0

0

0

0

0

MY Imp. from EU

0

0

0

0

0

0

Total Supply

20,399

20,399

20,049

19,699

18,148

18,398

MY Exports

0

0

1

1

0

0

MY Exp. to EU

0

0

0

0

0

0

Crush

18,300

18,300

18,400

18,100

16,800

16,800

Food Use Dom. Cons.

0

0

0

0

0

0

Feed Waste Dom. Cons.

600

600

600

600

600

600

Total Dom. Cons.

18,900

18,900

19,000

18,700

17,400

17,400

Ending Stocks

1,499

1,499

1,048

998

748

998

Total Distribution

20,399

20,399

20,049

19,699

18,148

18,398

CY Imports

4,470

4,470

4,200

3,900

3,800

4,000

CY Imp. from U.S.

0

0

0

0

0

0

CY Exports

0

0

0

0

0

0

CY Exp. to U.S.

0

0

0

0

0

0

Peanut

Country

Commodity

China, Peoples Republic of

Oilseed, Peanut (1000 tons; 1000 Ha)

2014/15

2015/16

2016/17

Post

Post

Post

USDA

Estimate

USDA

Estimate

USDA

Estimate

Official

New

Official

New

Official

New

Market Year Begin

10/2014

10/2015

10/2016

Area Planted

4,604

4,604

4,600

4,600

4,700

4,750

Area Harvested

4,604

4,604

4,600

4,600

4,700

4,750

Beginning Stocks

0

0

0

0

0

0

Production

16,482

16,482

16,500

16,500

16,900

17,000

MY Imports

161

161

580

550

600

400

MY Imp. from U.S.

0

21

0

5

0

10

MY Imp. from EU

0

0

0

0

0

0

Total Supply

16,643

16,643

17,080

17,050

17,500

17,400

MY Exports

502

502

500

500

500

500

MY Exp. to EU

37

37

50

50

50

50

Crush

8,394

8,394

8,750

8,850

9,050

9,130

Food Use Dom. Cons.

6,650

6,650

6,830

6,700

6,950

6,750

Feed Waste Dom. Cons.

1,097

1,097

1,000

1,000

1,000

1,020

Total Dom. Cons.

16,141

16,141

16,580

16,550

17,000

16,900

Ending Stocks

0

0

0

0

0

0

Total Distribution

16,643

16,643

17,080

17,050

17,500

17,400

CY Imports

165

175

550

500

600

450

CY Imp. from U.S.

0

12

0

8

0

10

CY Exports

511

509

500

500

500

500

CY Exp. to U.S.

0

0

0

0

0

0

Meal PSD Tables

Soybean Meal

PSD Table

Country

Commodity

China, Peoples Republic of

Meal, Soybean (1000 tons)

2014/15

2015/16

2016/17

Post

Post

Post

USDA

Estimate

USDA

Estimate

USDA

Estimate

Official

New

Official

New

Official

New

Market Year Begin

10/2014

10/2015

10/2016

Crush

74,500

74,500

81,800

81,500

87,000

86,000

Extr. Rate, 999.9999

0.7921

0.7921

0.792

0.792

0.792

0.792

Beginning Stocks

0

0

0

0

0

0

Production

59,008

59,008

64,782

64,548

68,900

68,110

MY Imports

58

58

30

27

30

20

MY Imp. from U.S.

0

0

0

0

0

0

MY Imp. from EU

0

0

0

0

0

0

Total Supply

59,066

59,066

64,812

64,575

68,930

68,130

MY Exports

1,595

1,577

1,850

1,800

1,850

1,850

MY Exp. to EU

60

60

30

100

30

100

Industrial Dom. Cons.

980

980

1,000

1,000

1,020

1,050

Food Use Dom. Cons.

0

0

0

0

0

0

Feed Waste Dom. Cons.

56,491

56,509

61,962

61,775

66,060

65,230

Total Dom. Cons.

57,471

57,489

62,962

62,775

67,080

66,280

Ending Stocks

0

0

0

0

0

0

Total Distribution

59,066

59,066

64,812

64,575

68,930

68,130

CY Imports

60

60

30

25

30

25

CY Imp. from U.S.

0

0

0

0

0

0

CY Exports

1,714

1,696

1,850

1,800

1,850

1,900

CY Exp. to U.S.

20

20

20

20

0

30

Oils PSD Tables

Soybean Oil

PSD Table

Country

Commodity

China, Peoples Republic of

Oil, Soybean (1000 tons)

2014/15

2015/16

2016/17

USDA

Post

Estimate

USDA

Post

Estimate

USDA

Post

Estimate

Official

New

Official

New

Official

New

Market Year Begin

10/2014

10/2015

10/2016

Crush

74,500

74,500

81,800

81,500

87,000

86,000

Extr. Rate, 999.9999

0.179

0.179

0.179

0.179

0.179

0.179

Beginning Stocks

965

965

778

778

693

750

Production

13,347

13,347

14,655

14,590

15,587

15,390

MY Imports

773

773

820

650

820

650

MY Imp. from U.S.

150

0

100

30

100

30

MY Imp. from EU

0

0

0

0

0

0

Total Supply

15,085

15,085

16,253

16,018

17,100

16,790

MY Exports

107

107

110

100

110

100

MY Exp. to EU

0

0

0

0

0

0

Industrial Dom. Cons.

0

0

0

0

0

0

Food Use Dom. Cons.

14,200

14,200

15,450

15,168

16,200

15,800

Feed Waste Dom. Cons.

0

0

0

0

0

0

Total Dom. Cons.

14,200

14,200

15,450

15,168

16,200

15,800

Ending Stocks

778

778

693

750

790

890

Total Distribution

15,085

15,085

16,253

16,018

17,100

16,790

CY Imports

818

818

820

650

820

700

CY Imp. from U.S.

150

0

100

30

100

30

CY Exports

104

104

110

100

110

100

CY Exp. to U.S.

0

0

0

0

0

0

Rapeseed Oil

PSD Table

Country

Commodity

China, Peoples Republic of

Oil, Rapeseed (1000 tons)

2014/15

2015/16

2016/17

Post

Post

Post

USDA

Estimate

USDA

Estimate

USDA

Estimate

Official

New

Official

New

Official

New

Market Year Begin

10/2014

10/2015

10/2016

Crush

18,300

18,300

18,400

18,100

16,800

16,800

Extr. Rate, 999.9999

0.390

0.390

0.390

0.390

0.39

0.39

Beginning Stocks

4,051

4,051

4,164

4,164

4,085

4,188

Production

7,137

7,137

7,176

7,059

6,552

6,552

MY Imports

732

732

800

750

700

700

MY Imp. from U.S.

0

0

0

0

0

0

MY Imp. from EU

0

107

0

110

0

100

Total Supply

11,920

11,920

12,140

11,973

11,337

11,440

MY Exports

6

6

5

6

5

5

MY Exp. to EU

0

0

0

0

0

0

Industrial Dom. Cons.

0

0

0

0

0

0

Food Use Dom. Cons.

7,750

7,750

8,050

7,779

8,200

8,061

Feed Waste Dom. Cons.

0

0

0

0

0

0

Total Dom. Cons.

7,750

7,750

8,050

7,779

8,200

8,061

Ending Stocks

4,164

4,164

4,085

4,188

3,132

3,374

Total Distribution

11,920

11,920

12,140

11,973

11,337

11,440

CY Imports

815

815

800

750

700

700

CY Imp. from U.S.

0

0

0

0

0

0

CY Exports

5

5

5

5

5

5

CY Exp. to U.S.

0

0

0

0

0

0

Country

China, Peoples Republic of

Commodity

Oil, Peanut (1000 tons)

2014/15

2015/16

2016/17

Post

Post

Post

USDA

Estimate

USDA

Estimate

USDA

Estimate

Official

New

Official

New

Official

New

Market Year Begin

Oct 14

Oct 15

Oct 16

Crush

8,394

8,394

8,75

8,85

9,05

9,13

Extr. Rate, 999.9999

0.320

0.320

0.320

0.32

0.32

0.32

Beginning Stocks

0

0

0

0

0

0

Production

2,686

2,686

2,8

2,832

2,896

2,922

MY Imports

141

141

150

120

150

130

MY Imp. from U.S.

0

0

0

0

0

0

MY Imp. from EU

0

0

0

0

0

0

Total Supply

2,827

2,827

2,95

2,952

3,046

3,052

MY Exports

8

8

10

7

6

6

MY Exp. to EU

0

0

0

0

0

0

Industrial Dom. Cons.

0

0

0

0

0

0

Food Use Dom. Cons.

2,819

2,819

2,94

2,945

3,04

3,046

Feed Waste Dom. Cons.

0

0

0

0

0

0

Total Dom. Cons.

2,819

2,819

2,94

2,945

3,04

3,046

Ending Stocks

0

0

0

0

0

0

Total Distribution

2,827

2,827

2,95

2,952

3,046

3,052

CY Imports

128

128

150

130

150

130

CY Imp. from U.S.

0

0

0

0

0

0

CY Exports

8

8

7

7

6

6

CY Exp. to U.S.

0

0

0

0

0

0


Palm Oil

PSD Table

Country

Commodity

China, Peoples Republic of

Oil, Palm (1000 tons)

2014/15

2014/16

2016/17

Post

Post

Post

USDA

Estimate

USDA

Estimate

USDA

Estimate

Official

New

Official

New

Official

New

Market Year Begin

10/2014

10/2015

10/2016

Area Planted

0

0

0

0

0

0

Area Harvested

0

0

0

0

0

0

Trees

0

0

0

0

0

0

Beginning Stocks

310

310

255

255

205

100

Production

0

0

0

0

0

0

MY Imports

5,696

5,696

5,000

5,000

5,150

5,200

MY Imp. from U.S.

0

0

0

0

0

0

MY Imp. from EU

0

0

0

0

0

0

Total Supply

6,006

6,006

5,255

5,255

5,355

5,300

MY Exports

1

1

0

0

0

2

MY Exp. to EU

0

0

0

0

0

0

Industrial Dom. Cons.

1,950

1,950

2,000

2,050

2,050

2,100

Food Use Dom. Cons.

3,800

3,800

3,050

3,105

3,100

3,050

Feed Waste Dom. Cons.

0

0

0

0

0

0

Total Dom. Cons.

5,750

5,750

5,050

5,155

5,150

5,150

Ending Stocks

255

255

205

100

205

148

Total Distribution

6,006

6,006

5,255

5,255

5,355

5,300

CY Imports

5,910

5,910

5,000

5,100

5,150

5,250

CY Imp. from U.S.

0

0

0

0

0

0

CY Exports

2

2

0

1

0

2

CY Exp. to U.S.

0

0

0

0

0

0


Sunflower Seed Oil

PSD Table

Country

Commodity

Market Year Begin

China, Peoples Republic of

Oil, Sunflower Seed (1000 tons)

2014/15

2015/16

2016/17

Post

Post

Post

USDA

Estimate

USDA

Estimate

USDA

Estimate

Official

New

Official

New

Official

New

10/2014

10/2015

10/2016

Crush

1,300

1,300

1,300

1,294

1320

1322

Extr. Rate, 999.9999

0.359

0.359

0.359

0.359

0.360

0.359

Beginning Stocks

0

0

0

0

0

0

Production

466

466

466

465

475

475

MY Imports

534

534

750

800

750

800

MY Imp. from U.S.

0

0

0

0

0

0

MY Imp. from EU

0

0

0

0

0

0

Total Supply

1,000

1,000

1,216

1,265

1,225

1,275

MY Exports

0

2

0

2

0

2

MY Exp. to EU

0

0

0

0

0

0

Industrial Dom. Cons.

0

0

0

0

0

0

Food Use Dom. Cons.

1,000

998

1,216

1,263

1,225

1,273

Feed Waste Dom. Cons.

0

0

0

0

0

0

Total Dom. Cons.

1,000

998

1,216

1,263

1,225

1,273

Ending Stocks

0

0

0

0

0

0

Total Distribution

1,000

1,000

1,216

1,265

1,225

1,275

CY Imports

450

651

700

800

700

800

CY Imp. from U.S.

0

0

0

0

0

0

CY Exports

0

1

0

2

0

2

CY Exp. to U.S.

0

0

0

0

0

0