Highlights

In Marketing Year (MY) 2014/15 (Calendar Year 2015), the U.S. was unseated by Brazil as the largest exporter of soybeans to Vietnam. U.S. exports placed 2nd in the market at 660 thousand metric tons (TMT), a drop of 5.4 percent in volume. In MY 2015/16 (CY 2016), U.S. soybean exports are expected to fall to about 550 TMT as poor early year sales will not be made up for by fall 2016 exports. In MY 2014/15, total soybean meal (SBM) imports were 4.5 million metric tons (MMT), an increase of about 23 percent over the previous year (3.65 MMT) due to increasing demand from animal and aquaculture feed industries and food industry. The feed sector continues to grow keeping pace for the livestock and aquaculture sector's development and Post forecasts 2016 and 2017 SBM imports to slightly increase, to 4.6 MMT and 4.7 MMT, respectively.

Executive Summary

Vietnam's oilseed production continues to fall well below demand from the food industry and the livestock and aquaculture feed sectors due to low yield and strong competition from other field crops, such as corn. Post estimates that soybean production will not significantly increase in the coming years due to generally low yields and lack of meaningful expansion of growing areas. Competitiveness is a major disincentive to the expansion of the soybean sector overall.

Total imports of soybeans in 2014/15 were 1.7 MMT, an increase of 9 percent over the previous year due to rising demand from the food and feed industries. In MY 2014/15, U.S. was the second largest exporter of soybeans to Vietnam, following Brazil, capturing a 39 percent market share. U.S. soybean exports to Vietnam were 660 TMT, a drop of 5.4 percent in volume and a significant drop of 33 percent in value from the previous MY.

In MY 2014/15, Vietnam imported about 4.5 million metric tons (MMT) of SBM and soy flour, an increase of about 23 percent over the previous year (3.65 MMT) due to increasing demand for protein feed, and food industry. In 2015, U.S. SBM exports to Vietnam were 320 TMT, accounting for 7 percent market share. This is a drop from 10 percent in the previous year (368 TMT). In MY 2014/15, approximately 96 percent of U.S. SBM exports to Vietnam were soybean flour (HS Code 120810). Post projects soy flour imports will continue to increase in 2016 and in coming years as demand continues to grow due to population growth and rising incomes. Post forecasts 2016 and 2017 total SBM imports to increase slightly to 4.6 MMT and 4.7 MMT, respectively, given rising demand from the food and feed industries.

Vietnam continues to rely heavily on imported crude and refined vegetable oils to meet consumer demand, although domestically produced crude soybean oil has been available in the country since 2011. In 2015, Vietnam produced about 214 TMT of crude soy oil from commercial crushing facilities, but continued to import an estimated 761 TMT of crude and refined vegetable oils to meet local consumption and regional export demand. In 2015, refined vegetable oil imports were 662 TMT, a drop of about 10 percent from the previous year, and crude vegetable oil imports were almost at the same level of the year ago, which was 17 percent increase over 2014. Post forecasts that total vegetable oil imports in 2016, particularly crude imports, will rebound in the 800-820 TMT range due to new operation of a large vegetable oil refiner in Vietnam. Vietnam's exports of all types of vegetable oil and animal fat in 2015 were an estimated 182 TMT, almost the same level of the previous year (183 TMT), of which crude and refined soy oil accounted for 57 percent, while palm oil, copra oil and other products accounted for 43 percent. Post estimates soy oil exports at 100 TMT in both MY 2014/15 and MY2015/16.

OILSEED SECTION

Commodities:

Oilseed, Soybean

Production

Post's first forecast for Vietnam's MY 2016/17 soybean production is 167 thousand metric tons (TMT) on a forecasted 115,000 (ha). Soybean competitiveness vis-à-vis corn cultivation remains limited as per hectare revenue for soybean cultivation remains lower than corn cultivation.

FAS-Hanoi also revises Vietnam's MY 2015/16 soybean production down from 181 TMT to 161 TMT on 110,000 ha harvested area due to decreased growing areas. The scale of soybean production remains small, compared to other crops, and continues to fall far short of domestic demand. The major soybean growing area is concentrated in the Red River Delta in the North of Vietnam and accounts for 90 percent of total area.

Post estimates that soybean production will not significantly increase in the coming years due to generally low yields and lack of meaningful expansion of growing areas. Competitiveness is a major disincentive to the expansion of the soybean sector overall.

Regarding commercial cultivation of biotech soybean, as of yet, biotech developers have not pursued the commercial release of biotech soy in Vietnam. This further reduces the competiveness of soybean cultivation as revenue from new corn varieties (including biotech varieties) exceeds revenue from soybean cultivation.

Soybean production

Imported soybeans continue to feed Vietnam's two industrial-scale crushing plants (one in the North and one in the South) to produce soy oil and soybean meal. Domestically produced, full fat soybeans are mainly used in food processing (tofu and soymilk) and household-scale soybean oil production. In Calendar Year 2015 (MY 2014/15), total reported crush of the two facilities was approximately 1.13 MMT, about 77 percent of total capacity, a 9 percent drop from the level of the previous year due to decreased operation of the facility in the North. The resulting total soy products production was 822 TMT soymeal, 214 TMT crude soy oil, 56 TMT soy hulls, and about 4 TMT of feed grade Lecithin.

Both facilities anticipate slightly increasing crush in Calendar Year 2016 (MY 2015/16) as price dynamics keep crush margins positive and a new fermented soybean meal plant in the North fuels additional demand for soybean meal. Demand for soybeans used in the food processing industry is also increasing. Post estimates MY 2015/16 crush at 1.15 MMT. Post's forecast for Calendar Year 2017 (MY 2016/17) is 1.2 MMT as overall demand for soybean meal from Vietnam's livestock sector will drive overall demand higher.

The livestock and aquaculture industries continue to drive the demand for feed and soybeans, and this will drive the further development of the domestic crushing industry. In 2015, of the 15.9 MMT of commercial animal feed production, about 3.2 MMT (20 percent) was soybean meal, and of the 3.05 MMT of aquaculture feed, about 763 TMT (25 percent) was soybean meal. According to local feed producers, animal and aquaculture feed production continues to grow in 2016 with MARD estimating demand for locally-produced industrial feed at 16.5 MMT, up about 4.3 percent from 2015. Aquaculture feed demand will grow to over 4.5 MMT in 2016 and to 5.6 MMT by 2020, according to MARD. Food use domestic consumption of soybean products (such as soy milk, tofu, and other drinks using soybeans) continues to grow. Post estimates the growth in food use consumption of soybeans at about 5.5 percent a year. Post's MY 2015/16 and 2016/17 food use consumption estimates are 380 TMT and 400 TMT, respectively.

Trade

Imports

In MY2014/15, Vietnam imported about 1.71 MMT of soybeans, of which approximately 40 percent came from Brazil, 39 percent from the United States, and the rest sourced from Argentina, Canada, Cambodia, Uruguay, Paraguay, and other countrie. Brazil overtook the United States and became the largest exporter of soybeans to Vietnam with the United States falling to the second largest exporter. Soybean imports from the United States were 660 TMT (valued at $269.4 million) in MY 2014/15, a drop of 5.4 percent in volume and a significant drop of 33 percent in value from the previous MY (698 TMT and $402.6 million). Overall, soybean import value was $764 million in 2015, a significant drop of 16 percent from the record level of $913 million in 2014 due to deep decline in global prices.

Under the current tariff structure, soybeans enjoy a zero percent tariff for imports from World Trade Organization (WTO) member countries, while the new tariff rate for soybean meal is 2 percent. This new tariff structure will drive increasing soybean imports in the coming years. Post forecasts MY 2015/16 soybean imports at 1.75 MMT, based on Post's projections for increasing demand from the livestock and aquaculture feed industries, operation of Vietnam's crushing plants, and demand from the food processing sector. Post's initial MY 2016/17 import estimate is 1.8 MMT as the growth in imports slows as the crushing facilities near their respective crushing capacities. Any expansion in crush capacity, either by expanding existing plants or the construction of new plants, will result in large increases in soybean imports.

In Fiscal Year 2015 (October 2014-September 2015), USDA's Export Credit Guarantee Program (GSM-102) continued to support the growth of soybean exports to Vietnam. GSM-102 transactions for soybean exports continued to dominate GSM-102 program usage in Vietnam, accounting for 99 percent of total exports financed by GSM-102

Prices

Vietnam's average import price for soybeans in 2015 was $448/MT, about a 24 percent drop from the previous year. Local traders forecast that soybean import prices will continue at low levels in 2016 due to strong supply in the world market from Brazil and low gas/oil prices leading to lower transportation costs. Import prices for grade 2 full fat soybeans were quoted at $399 and $400 per MT, CNF Ho Chi Minh City and CNF Hai Phong, respectively, for shipments in April/May 2016, a 16 percent drop from the same time the previous year.

Policy

The regulatory process for agricultural biotechnology for use as food and feed

Regarding the regulatory process for reviewing the safety of agricultural biotechnology for use as food and feed (including soy biotech events), please refer to the 2015 Agricultural Biotechnology Annual GAIN report VM5042 for further information. As of March 2016, the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development (MARD) approved eighteen biotech events, of which ten are soybean events. In addition, there are 12 events for cotton, canola, soybean, and corn that are under review at MARD.

Import Tariffs

According to Circular 182/2015/TT-BTC dated November 16, 2015, the tariff rate applied to soybeans (HS Code: 1201) imported from countries having Most Favored Nation (MFN) status with Vietnam remains 0 percent.

Production, Supply and Demand Data Statistics:

Oilseed, Soybean

2014/2015

2015/2016

2016/2017

Market Begin Year

Jan 2015

Jan 2016

Jan 2017

Vietnam

USDA

New

USDA

New

USDA

New

Official

Post

Official

Post

Official

Post

Area Planted

120

115

120

120

120

125

Area Harvested

100

100

110

110

115

115

Beginning Stocks

154

154

199

400

230

631

Production

146

146

161

161

165

167

MY Imports

1509

1707

1650

1750

1750

1800

MY Imp. from U.S.

660

660

650

700

700

750

MY Imp. from EU

0

0

0

0

0

0

Total Supply

1809

2007

2010

2311

2145

2598

MY Exports

0

0

0

0

0

0

MY Exp. to EU

0

0

0

0

0

0

Crush

1130

1127

1250

1150

1400

1200

Food Use Dom. Cons.

360

360

380

380

390

400

Feed Waste Dom.

120

120

150

150

160

170

Total Dom. Cons.

1610

1607

1780

1680

1950

1770

199

400

230

631

195

828

Ending Stocks

Total Distribution

1809

2007

2010

2311

2145

2598

Commodities:

Oilseed, Peanut

Production:

According to GSO and MARD statistics, peanut production in MY 2014/15 was 451.8 TMT, slight drop to compare with the previous year. This is due to smaller planted area compared to the previous MY (a 4.2 percent drop), although yield increased 4 percent over the previous year The peanut planting area is focused in the North Central Coast and the South Central Coast (accounting for 66 percent and 34 percent of the total cultivated area, respectively).

In MY 2015/16, Post revised its estimated growing area to 210,000 ha and production to increase about 5.5 percent to 477 TMT Expanding growing area and variety improvement will boost yield and production. In 2016/17, Post forecasts peanut production will continue to increase to 490 TMT, nearing the level in 2013, as cultivated area rebounds.

Vietnam's Peanut production

Consumption:

Post estimates that 630 TMT of peanuts (in-shell basis) were consumed domestically in Vietnam in MY 2014/15. In MY 2015/16 and MY 2016/17, Post estimates peanut consumption at 660 TMT and 690 TMT, respectively. The majority of peanuts, locally produced and imported, are used in the snack and confectionery industries with a small amount used in-shell for household consumption, extruded for cooking oil, or exported.

Trade:

Imports

Vietnam's total peanut imports (in-shell equivalent) were 176 TMT in MY 2014/15 (Tables 8, 9, 12 and 13), a drop of 19 percent from the previous year. Both in-shell and shelled imports, mainly from India, Senegal, Argentina, the United States, and Brazil, are used by the snack food industry in Vietnam. Post forecasts imports to be 200 TMT (in-shell basis) in MY 2015/16, and increase slightly to 210 TMT in MY 2016/17.

In-shell peanut imports by source

Vietnam's peanut imports from India dropped significantly in 2015 (by 67 percent) due to GOV's suspension of imported Indian peanuts, which began in April 2015 after finding a live quarantine pest.

Exports

In MY 2014/15, Vietnam exported a small quantity (7.4 TMT) of in-shell and shelled peanuts, mainly to Taiwan, Thailand, Russia, Malaysia, and Hong Kong. This is a drop of 10.5 percent from the year before due to much smaller demand from Taiwan and Russia to compare with the previous year. Post forecasts that peanut exports will remain at the same level or increase slightly in MY 2015/16 and MY 2016/17.

Vietnam's peanut exports

Import Tariffs

According to Circular 182/2015/TT-BTC dated November 16, 2015, the tariff rate applied to both in-shell and shelled peanuts (HS Codes: 1202.41, and 120242) imported from countries having Most Favored Nation (MFN) status with Vietnam remains 10 percent.

Production, Supply and Demand Data Statistics:

Oilseed, Peanut

2014/2015

2015/2016

2016/2017

Market Begin Year

Jan 2015

Jan 2016

Jan 2017

Vietnam

USDA

New

USDA

New

USDA

New

Official

Post

Official

Post

Official

Post

Area Planted

0

200

0

210

0

215

Area Harvested

215

200

220

210

0

215

Beginning Stocks

40

40

38

31

0

40

Production

473

452

485

477

0

490

MY Imports

181

176

200

200

0

210

MY Imp. from U.S.

0

28

0

30

0

35

MY Imp. from EU

0

0

0

0

0

0

Total Supply

694

668

723

708

0

740

MY Exports

6

7

6

8

0

8

MY Exp. to EU

0

0

0

0

0

0

Crush

50

20

50

30

0

40

Food Use Dom. Cons.

600

610

615

630

0

650

Feed Waste Dom. Cons.

0

0

0

0

0

0

Total Dom. Cons.

650

630

665

660

0

690

Ending Stocks

38

31

52

40

0

42

Total Distribution

694

668

723

708

0

740

Commodities

Oilseed, Copra

Production

Coconut palms are one of the perennial oil crops mainly grown in the Mekong Delta and central coast. The major coconut growing area, the Mekong River Delta, accounts for 79 percent of total coconut area in the country. According to MARD, Vietnam had 162,300 ha of coconut, producing 1.4 MMT of coconuts, and an estimated 254 TMT of copra production, copra production is estimated at 17.5%-17.8% of total coconut production as there is no official data for copra available in Vietnam. Currently, in the context of climate change, increased saltwater intrusion, droughts, and floods are all impacting the coastal plains, especially the Mekong Delta. Coconut palms are considered to have high resilience to withstand these threats and will be important crops as Vietnam is increasingly affected by these weather events.

Post initially estimates copra production at 258 TMT and 260 TMT in 2016 and 2017, respectively.

Coconut and copra production

Consumption

Coconuts have many food and industrial uses in Vietnam. Food use coconut includes fresh young coconut, fresh mature coconuts for immediate consumption and cooking, desiccated coconut, coconut jelly, frozen coconut meat, coconut candy, coconut jam, coconut milk, coconut milk powder, refined copra/coconut oil, and fresh coconut juice. Industrially, crude coconut oil is used for cosmetics industry, soap making, coconut fiber is used as cushioning, building materials, for woven rope, coconut carpet, coco chips for flowerbed decorations, coco-peat for air filtration, animal (cattle) bedding, organic agricultural fertilizer, organic compound for mushroom growing, moist-retentive substance for plants. Coconut shell is used for handicraft decoration and charcoal. According to local industry, about 17.5-17.8 percent of total coconut production is used to make copra for the crushing industry producing coconut oil and copra meal. In 2015, about 254 TMT of copra was used for crushing and produced about 160 TMT of copra oil (at about 63 percent extraction rate) and about 89 TMT of copra meal (at about 35 percent extraction rate). Copra oil is used for both industrial and food consumption.

Trade:

Import

Vietnam imported various coconuts products such as desiccated coconuts (HS code 0801.11), coconut in the inner shell (endocarp, HS code 0801.12), copra (HS code 1203.00), and other coconut products (other than desiccated, HS code 080119). In 2015, Vietnam imported a small amount of coconut products from other countries, a drop of 90 percent from the previous year

Vietnam's copra and other coconut product imports

Import Tariffs

According to Circular 182/2015/TT-BTC dated November 16, 2015, the most updated tariff rate applied to coconuts (HS Code: 0801), copra (HS code 1203), and coconut fibers (HS code 5305.00) imported from countries having.

Coconut product import tariffs

Export

In 2015, Vietnam exported a small quantity of whole coconuts to two major markets, China and South Korea. According to Ben Tre Coconut Association, in 2015 Ben Tre province exported 16.2 million nuts to China and South Korea with a value of $4.5 million. Average export price to the Chinese market was 27 cents per nut, while it was 56 cents per nut to the South Korea market.

In 2015, Vietnam exported 212 TMT of copra and coconut products including desiccated coconuts (HS code 080111), coconuts in the inner shell (Endocarp, HS code 080112), copra (HS code 120300), other coconut produc, and coconut fibers (HS code 530500).

Oilseed, Copra

Market Begin Year

Vietnam

2014\2015

2015\2016

2016\2017

Area Planted

0

162

0

165

0

167

Area Harvested

155

155

155

160

0

162

Trees

0

0

0

0

0

0

Beginning Stocks

0

0

0

0

0

0

Production

242

254

240

258

0

260

MY Imports

0

0

0

0

0

0

MY Imp. from U.S.

0

0

0

0

0

0

MY Imp. from EU

0

0

0

0

0

0

Total Supply

242

254

240

258

0

260

MY Exports

0

0

0

0

0

0

MY Exp. to EU

0

0

0

0

0

0

Crush

242

254

240

258

0

260

Food Use Dom. Cons.

0

0

0

0

0

0

Feed Waste Dom.

0

0

0

0

0

0

Total Dom. Cons.

242

254

240

258

0

260

Ending Stocks

0

0

0

0

0

0

Total Distribution

242

254

240

258

0

260

(1000 HA) ,(1000 TREES) ,(1000 MT)


Production: Oilseed, Rapeseed Commodities:

In Vietnam, there is limited cultivation and research on colza seeds (rapeseed). The Research Institute for Oil and Oil Plants started to research higher oil content varieties, which are grown for research purposes in Lam Dong and Ha Giang Provinces. While the research is showing positive results, rapeseed production remains on a very small scale for research and is not yet commercialized.

Trade:

Import

In 2015, Vietnam imported a small volume of rapeseed (colza seed), a significant drop compared with the last year

According to Circular 182/2015/TT-BTC dated November 16, 2015, the tariff rate applied to Rapeseed or Colza seeds (HS Code: 120510 and HS code 120590), imported from countries having Most Favored Nation (MFN) status with Vietnam remains 5 percent.

Export

In 2015, Vietnam exported a negligible quantity of rapeseed (colza seed) with HS codes 120510 and 120590 to Switzerland.

Consumption:

In Vietnam, the majority of rapeseed are planted and used for making beautiful flower fields in some provinces such as Ha Giang and Son La. A negligible volume of rapeseed is used for oil extraction at household scale.

MEAL SECTION

Commodities:

Meal, Soybean

Production:

Vietnam's domestic soybean meal (SBM) production was 822 TMT in MY2014/2015, a drop of 7.5 percent from the record level of the previous year (889 TMT) due to decreased operation of one of the two crushing facilities operating in Vietnam. Local SBM production is projected to rebound in the coming years until the capacity of the existing crush facilities is reached.The demand for soybean meal production continues to serve as the encouraging factor for crush, but soy oil production acts as limiting factor in the long term . Post revises its estimates MY 2015/16 SBM production to 822 TMT. Post's initial forecast for SBM production in MY 2016/17 is about 840 TMT.

Consumption:

Almost all SBM, both domestically produced and imported, is used in the animal and aquaculture feed industries to meet surging demand for animal and aquaculture protein. Recently, some domestically produced SBM has been exported to neighboring countries.

Vietnam also imports soy flour (336 TMT), which is used in the food and feed industries.This volume is about a 9.7 percent drop from the previous year, but it is still about 26 percent rise over the year 2013. Vietnam's SBM consumption was estimated at 5 MMT in MY 2014/15. Post estimates MY2015/16 SBM consumption at 5.17 MMT, a year-on-year increase of 3 percent. Post's initial MY 2016/17 SBM consumption forecast is 5.29 MMT, reflecting the steady, continued growth in the livestock and aquaculture.

Trade:

Imports

Vietnam continues to import increasing amounts of SBM to offset the protein shortage in the country and meet the growing demand of the animal and aquaculture feed industries. In MY 2014/15, Vietnam imported about 4.5 MMT of SBM and soy flour, an increase of about 23 percent over the previous year (3.65 MMT).

Post estimates total SBM imports, including SBM, soy flour, and other residues from soybeans in MY 2015/16 to slightly increase to 4.6 MMT, and in MY 2015/16 to continue to increase to 4.7 MMT due to strong demand from feed sector .

In 2015, Argentina remained the largest supplier of SBM to Vietnam, accounting for about 71 percent of the import market, up from 65 percent in 2014 and 58 percent in 2013. Brazil, the other main supplier of SBM to Vietnam, accounted for 13.5 percent of the import market, up from 8.3 percent in 2014.

China's and India's SBM exports to Vietnam dropped significantly in 2015 due to price competitiveness and the perception that Chinese and Indian SBM are lower in protein compared to sources from Argentina, Brazil, and the United States. In MY 2014/15, U.S. SBM exports to Vietnam were 320 TMT, accounting for 7 percent market share. This is a drop from 10 percent in the previous year (368 TMT). In MY 2014/15, approximately 96 percent of U.S. SBM exports to Vietnam were soybean flour (HS Code 120810).

Post estimates U.S. SBM exports in MY2015/16 and MY2016/17 at about the same level of 320 TMT.

Soybean meal imports by source in the period 2011-2015

Soybean meal imports by month in 2015

In 2015, Vietnam also imported about 336 TMT of soybean flour, mainly from the United States, Argentina, India, Taiwan and Malaysia, which was used for both feed and food industries. This is a drop of 9.7 percent from the record level in the previous year, but is still a 26 percent increase over 2013. Post projects soy flour imports will continue to increase in 2016 and in coming years as demand continues to grow due to population growth and rising incomes, as well as the growing food industry.

Soybean flour imports by sources

Exports

According to local traders, Vietnam exported about 295 TMT of soybean meal (HS Code: 230400), soy flour (HS Code: 120810), and other residues from soybeans (HS Code: 230250) in 2015 (MY 2014/15), valued at 45 million. Major export markets for Vietnamese SBM were Laos, Cambodia, Taiwan, Philippines, Malaysia, Myanmar, South Korea, and Japan. Although Vietnam will remain a large importer of SBM, occasional market dynamics in Vietnam and in neighboring countries will allow for small amounts of SBM exports. Post forecasts Vietnam's SBM exports at 300 TMT in MY2015/16, and at 310 TMT in MY2016/17.

Prices

Vietnam's average SBM import price in 2015 was $444 per metric ton, about a 21 percent drop from the previous year ($563. Currently, import prices are quoted at around $367-$368/MT CFR Ho Chi Minh City, and $370-$371/MT CFR Haiphong for shipments in April/May 2016. These prices are much lower than the average prices in the same period of the previous year. According to local importers, the import prices could be volatile, but will likely remain at this level or lower than $420/MT for 2015 due to growing global soybean meal production and increased availability.

Local prices of major feed ingredients in the Vietnam market

According to the Circular 182/2015/TT-BTC dated November 16, 2015, the 2016 tax rates applied to SBM, full fat soybean flour, and soybean hulls imported from countries having Most Favored Nation (MFN) status with Vietnam are stated below:

  • Import duty for soybean flour (HS code: 120810): 8 percent
  • Import duty for soybean hulls (HS code: 230250): 0 percenImport duty for defatted soya bean fl our, fit for human consumption (HS code: 2304.00.10): 0 percen
  • Import duty for other soybean meal (HS code: 2304.00.90): 2 percent

Production, Supply and Demand Data Statistics

Meal, Soybean

Market Begin Year

Vietnam

2014\2015

2015\2016

2016\2017

USD Official

New Post

USD Official

New Post

USD Official

New Post

Crush

1250

1127

1500

1150

0

1200

Extr. Rate, 999.9999

0.788

0.7294

0.79

0.7304

0

0.7333

Beginning Stocks

91

91

227

120

0

90

Production

985

822

1185

840

0

880

MY Imports

4276

4502

4600

4600

0

4700

MY Imp. from U.S.

375

320

400

320

0

320

MY Imp. from EU

0

0

0

0

0

0

Total Supply

5352

5415

6012

5560

0

5670

MY Exports

25

295

35

300

0

310

MY Exp. to EU

0

0

0

0

0

0

Industrial Dom. Cons.

0

0

0

0

0

0

Food Use Dom. Cons.

0

50

0

70

0

90

Feed Waste Dom.

5100

4950

5750

5100

0

5200

Total Dom. Cons.

5100

5000

5750

5170

0

5290

Ending Stocks

227

120

227

90

0

70

Total Distribution

5352

5415

6012

5560

0

5670

Meal, Peanut

Meal, Sunflower seed

Fishmeal

Production:

Vietnam produces a negligible volume of other oilseed meals, such as peanut meal, copra meal, rapeseed meal, etc. Aside from soybean meal (the largest domestically produced meal), copra meal is the next largest meal produced in Vietnam.

Copra cake and meal production

Vietnam uses copra to make copra cake and meal and copra oil. Copra production is used by the crushing industry to create coconut oil for both industrial and human consumption, and copra cake and meal for the animal feed sector. The estimated conversion rate from copra to copra cake and meal is 35 percent in Vietnam. In 2015, Vietnam produced about 89 TMT of copra meal.

Fishmeal production

Production of fishmeal, mainly from the south of Vietnam, depends on the production of caught saltwater and freshwater fish and the volume of caught trash fish. Vietnam's fishmeal production was 417 TMT in 2015, of which about 329 TMT is saltwater fishmeal and about 88 TMT is freshwater fishmeal, according to the General Statistics Office (GSO

Consumption:

All imported oil meals and feed ingredients including fishmeal are used as substitutes for SBM in livestock and aquaculture feed.

Trade:

Import

In 2015, Vietnam imported about 828 TMT of other oilseed meals including peanut meal, cottonseed meal, sunflower meal, canola meal, rapeseed meal, copra meal, and palm kernel meal, an increase of 26 percent over the previous year (659 TMT) aquaculture feed sector. In 2015, according to GTA and local importers, Vietnam imported about 96 TMT of fishmeal, of which 32 percent was imported from Thailand and 23 percent from Peru. The remainder was imported from Chile, South Korea, India, and other countries.

Import Tariffs

The tax rates applied to other oilseed meals and fishmeal imported from countries having Most Favored Nation (MFN) status with Vietnam remain 0 percent.

Export

In 2015, Vietnam exported about 1.14 MMT of other oilseed and protein meals including copra meal, rapeseed meal and fish meal to countries in the region.

According to local traders, Vietnam exports low-protein fishmeal, while it imports high protein fishmeal. In 2015, Vietnam exported 149.6 TMT of fishmeal to many countries, of which China is the largest export market.

Vietnam's Production, Supply & Demand Table for Copra Meal

Meal, Copra

2015/2016

2016/2017

2017/2018

Market Begin Year

Jan 2015

Jan 2016

Jan 2017

Vietnam

USDA

New

USDA

New

USDA

New

Official

Post

Official

Post

Official

Post

Crush

240

254

0

258

0

260

Extr. Rate, 999.9999

0.35

0.3504

0

0.3488

0

0.35

Beginning Stocks

12

12

0

10

0

7

Production

84

89

0

90

0

91

MY Imports

115

157

0

160

0

170

MY Imp. from U.S.

0

0

0

0

0

0

MY Imp. from EU

0

0

0

0

0

0

Total Supply

211

258

0

260

0

268

MY Exports

0

3

0

3

0

3

MY Exp. to EU

0

0

0

0

0

0

Industrial Dom. Cons.

0

0

0

0

0

0

Food Use Dom. Cons.

0

0

0

0

0

0

Feed Waste Dom.

210

245

0

250

0

255

Total Dom. Cons.

210

245

0

250

0

255

Ending Stocks

1

10

0

7

0

10

Total Distribution

211

258

0

260

0

268


Oil, Cottonseed

Production:

Refined vegetable oil production

According to the Ministry of Industry and Trade, and the General Statistics Office, Vietnam produced a record level of 813 TMT of refined vegetable oil (all types) in 2015, an increase of 11 percent over the previous year (733.3 TMT)

Considerable growth is needed in domestic refining capacity in order to reach GVN's target for refined vegetable oil of 1.59 MMT. According to the Ministry of Industry and Trade, there are some 40 cooking oil manufacturers in Vietnam with hundreds of edible oil brands that can now be found around the country. Seventy percent (70) of them are palm oil and 23 percent are soybean oil manufacturers.

In July 2015, a new joint venture company (Nortalic) between the Musim Mas Group (Singapore) and the state-owned Vietnam Vegetable Oils Industry Corporation (Vocarimex) started construction of a soybean oil processing plant with a total investment of US$71.5 million in the central province of Thanh Hoa. This plant is aiming for the capacity of 600 MT per day initially with the potential of increasing to 1,500 MT per day.

Consumption:

Most vegetable oil products are used for both human consumption and the food processing industry. Crude vegetable oils are used for animal feed industry and the industrial processing and the cosmetic industry.

Local producers estimated MY 2014/15 total vegetable oil consumption at 910 TMT, up about 4.5 percent over the previous year.There is no official data available for vegetable oil consumption per capita. Post projects continuous strong growth in consumption, including soybean oil, as demand continues to grow, driven by rising consumer incomes, increased urbanization, and growth of the food processing industry and animal feed industry. Industry has estimated vegetable oil consumption per capita to be 9.9 kg per person in 2015, below the world average of 13.5 kg per capita per year. Vegetable oil consumption per capita is projected to increase to 16 kg per person per year by 2020, and 18.5 kg by 2025.

Most imported soybean and palm oil are currently for food use; only a small volume of imported oil is used in the industrial and cosmetic manufacturing sectors and feed industry. Post estimates local consumption at 640 TMT for palm oil and 190 TMT for soybean oil in MY 2014/15. In MY 2015/16, Post forecasts local consumption of palm oil at 650 TMT and soy oil at 220 TMT.

Post estimates coconut oil consumption in 2015 at 150 TMT, of which 100 TMT is used for food processing industry and about 50 TMT is used for the industrial and cosmetic manufacturing sectors.

The below table shows the market share of major oil and fat brand names in Vietnam, according to Euromonitor International.

Trade:

Imports of vegetable oils (both crude and refined)

Vietnam's vegetable oil industry continues to rely heavily on imported crude and refined oil to meet consumer demand. In MY 2014/15, Vietnam imported an estimated 761 TMT of crude and refined vegetable oils of all types, a drop of 8.7 percent from the previous year

In MY 2014/15, Vietnam's refined vegetable oil imports in MY2014/15 were estimated at 662 TMT, accounting for 87 percent of the total imported vegetable oils.

Total palm and palm kernel oil imports (both crude and refined oils) were 618 TMT in MY 2014/15, a drop of 11.4 percent from the previous year, but still accounting for almost 81 percent of total vegetable oil imports. Total soy oil imports (both crude and refined) were 98 TMT in MY 2014/15, a rise of 20 percent over the year ago. Soy oil accounts for about 13 percent of total vegetable oil imports.

Post forecasts soy oil imports will increase in the future due to the operation of a number of soy-only oil refining plants.

Vietnam imported a small volume of coconut (copra) oil (2.1 TMT) and rapeseed (colza) oil (3.1 TMT) in MY2014/15. Other vegetable oils, including peanut oil, olive oil, sunflower oil, cottonseed oil, linseed oil, corn oil, castor oil, and other vegetable oils imported in refined, consumer-ready packaging, were 39 TMT in MY 2014/15, accounting for about 5 percent of total vegetable oil importsImports of crude vegetable oil

Vietnam's total crude vegetable oil imports in MY 2014/15 were about 99 TMT, almost the same level of the previous year. Crude soy oil mainly imported from Argentina, Thailand, and Malaysia, accounted for 93 percent of total crude vegetable oil imports. Post estimates crude oil imports will likely remain at MY 2015/16 levels.

Crude vegetable oil imports

Vietnam's refined vegetable oil imports for MY 2014/15 were 662 TMT, a 10 percent drop from the previous year. Refined palm oil imports mainly from Malaysia and Indonesia accounted for about 93 percent of total refined vegetable oil. Other vegetable oils, which are mostly in consumer-ready packaging, accounted for 5.8 percent of total refined vegetable oil imports, refined soybean oil accounted for 0.8 percent, and refined coconut (copra) oil accounted for 0.3 percent of the total refined vegetable oil imports in MY 2014/15.

In MY 2015/16, Post forecasts refined oil imports at 680 - 700 TMT. Of this estimate, Post forecasts refined palm oil imports, soy oil, and other vegetable oil imports at 650 TMT and 6 TMT and 24 TMT, respectively. Post's initial forecast for MY 2016/17 refined palm oil imports at 680 TMT and soy oil imports at 6 TMT.

Source: Ministry of Finance

On August 10, 2015, the Ministry of Industry and Trade (MOIT) released Decision 8287/QD-BCT regarding the announcement of the midterm review of the application of the official safeguard duties on refined soy and palm oil imports. As a result of the midterm review, the official safeguard measures continue to be applied on imported refined soy and palm oil products, under the following HS codes: 1507.90.90; 1511.90.91; 1511.90.92; and 1511.90.99. The safeguard applies to ASEAN refined palm oil exporters (Malaysia and Indonesia) and Argentine, U.S., and Brazilian refined soybean oil. The safeguard measures increase the import tariff on refined soy and palm oil products, aiming to help domestic refiners in response to an official request from domestic producers. Decision 8287 states that additional import duties will be applied and lowered over time, falling to 0 on May 8, 2017

The additional import tariff drops to 2 percent on May 8, 2016 and will fall to zero on May 8, 2017, unless it is extended.

Recently, the GOV issued the Decree 9/2016/ND-CP dated January 28, 2016 specifying the mandatory fortification of micronutrients in foods and the roadmap for application in Vietnam. This Decree also provides details on the responsibilities of the three key Ministries in charge of managing food safety of foods fortified with micronutrients. This Decree enters into force on March 15, 2016. The Decree specifies the foods which must be fortified with the relevant micronutrients, including vegetable oils, which contain one of these ingredients: soy oil, palm oil, rapeseed oil, and peanut oil must be fortified with vitamin A, except in the case of vegetable oils used for food processing. The roadmap for fortification of Vitamin A in vegetable oils is mandatory after 2 (two) years from the date the Decree enters into force. The responsibilities of food safety management for foods fortified with micronutrients, which were previously assigned to the Ministry of Health (MOH), are re-assigned to the Ministry of Industry and Trade (MOIT) and the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development (MARD) for certain products. Accordingly, MOIT is now in charge of managing food safety for imports of vegetable oils fortified with micronutrients.

Exports

Currently, there is no official export volume data available for vegetable oils. According to trade data from Global Trade Atlas, Vietnam's exports of all types of animal or vegetable oils and fats reached an estimated 182 TMT in MY 2014/15, almost at the same level of the previous year (183 TMT). MY 2014/15 export value was about $169 million, a drop of 18 percent from the year before ($205 million). Of the total MY 2014/15 Vietnamese vegetable and animal oil and fat exports, crude and refined soy oil accounted for 57 percent, palm oil, copra oil and rapeseed oil accounted for 2.5 percent and other vegetable oils and fats for 40.5 percent. Post's initial estimates both MY 2015/16 and MY2016/17 soy oil exports are 100 TMT.

STATISTICS

Production, Supply and Demand Data Statistics:

Meal, Copra

2015/2016

2016/2017

2017/2018

Market Begin Year

Jan 2015

Jan 2016

Jan 2017

Vietnam

USDA

New

USDA

New

USDA

New

Official

Post

Official

Post

Official

Post

Crush

240

254

0

258

0

260

Extr. Rate, 999.9999

0.35

0.3504

0

0.3488

0

0.35

Beginning Stocks

12

12

0

10

0

7

Production

84

89

0

90

0

91

MY Imports

115

157

0

160

0

170

MY Imp. from U.S.

0

0

0

0

0

0

MY Imp. from EU

0

0

0

0

0

0

Total Supply

211

258

0

260

0

268

MY Exports

0

3

0

3

0

3

MY Exp. to EU

0

0

0

0

0

0

Industrial Dom. Cons.

0

0

0

0

0

0

Production

0

0

0

0

0

0

MY Imports

706

618

740

650

0

680

MY Imp. from U.S.

0

0

0

0

0

0

MY Imp. from EU

0

0

0

0

0

0

Total Supply

745

657

770

667

0

697

MY Exports

0

0

0

0

0

0

MY Exp. to EU

0

0

0

0

0

0

Industrial Dom. Cons.

0

0

0

0

0

0

Food Use Dom. Cons.

715

640

740

650

0

680

Feed Waste Dom.

0

0

0

0

0

0

Total Dom. Cons.

715

640

740

650

0

680

Ending Stocks

30

17

30

17

0

17

Total Suupply

745

657

770

667

0

697

Oil, Coconut

2014/2015

2015/2016

2016/2017

Market Begin Year

Jan 2015

Jan 2016

Jan 2017

Vietnam

USDA

New

USDA

New

USDA

Official

Post

Official

Post

Official

Post

Crush

242

254

240

258

0

260

Extr. Rate, 999.9999

0.6322

0.6299

0.6333

0.6318

0

0.6308

Beginning Stocks

0

0

0

8

0

9

Production

153

160

152

163

0

164

MY Imports

2

2

2

2

0

2

MY Imp. from U.S.

0

0

0

0

0

0

MY Imp. from EU

0

0

0

0

0

0

Total Supply

155

162

154

173

0

175

MY Exports

4

4

2

4

0

4

MY Exp. to EU

0

0

0

0

0

0

Industrial Dom. Cons.

0

50

0

55

0

58

Food Use Dom. Cons.

151

100

152

105

0

108

Feed Waste Dom.

0

0

0

0

0

0

Total Dom. Cons.

151

150

152

160

0

166

Ending Stocks

0

8

0

9

0

5

Total Distribution

155

162

154

173

0

175