Highlights

Production of rice, beans, and pulses is forecast to decline in MY 2015/16 due to unfavorable weather conditions. Rice exports are expected to decline to 1.5 million metric tons in MY 2015/16 due to lower production. Corn exports, however, are likely to increase in line with sustained demand from China while wheat imports are expected to increase as a result of rising domestic demand.

Summary

Rice production is estimated to decrease to 12.2 million metric tons (MMT) in Marketing Year (MY) 2015/16 due primarily to flooding. Production is expected to recover to 12.5 MMT in MY 2016/17 due to anticipated favorable weather conditions. Myanmar's rice exports are forecast to decline to 1.5 MMT in 2016 as a result of lower rice production in 2015/16. Corn production in Myanmar is expected to grow to 2 MMT in MY 2015/16 and 2.1 MMT in MY 2016/17 due to increased corn growing area and strong international demand. Accordingly, Myanmar's corn exports are likely to increase in MY 2015/16 and MY 2016/17 due to strong demand from China. Wheat production in Myanmar is limited and demand is expected to be met with imports. Wheat imports are expected to grow to 350,000 MT in MY 2015/16 and 360,000 MT in MY 2016/17. Flooding in 2015 is expected to decrease bean and pulse production to 1.4 MMT in MY 2015/16, but is expected to rebound to 1.45 MMT in MY 2016/20

Rice Milled

Rice, Milled

2014/2015

2015/2016

2016/2017

Market Begin Year

Jan 2015

Jan 2016

Jan 2017

Burma (Myanmar)

USDA Official

New Post

USDA Official

New Post

USDA Official

New Post

Area Harvested

7030

7040

6900

6900

0

7030

Beginning Stocks

372

372

572

538

0

518

Milled Production

12600

12600

12200

12200

0

12500

Rough Production

19688

19688

19063

19063

0

19531

Milling Rate (.9999)

6400

6400

6400

6400

0

6400

MY Imports

0

0

0

0

0

0

TY Imports

0

0

0

0

0

0

TY Imp. from U.S.

0

0

0

0

0

0

Total Supply

12972

12972

12772

12738

0

13018

MY Exports

1750

1734

1800

1500

0

1600

TY Exports

1735

1734

1800

1500

0

1600

Consumption and Residual

10650

10700

10650

10720

0

10750

Ending Stocks

572

538

322

518

0

668

Total Distribution

12972

12972

12772

12738

0

13018

Production Policy

Rice production is estimated to decrease by 3 percent to 12.2 MMT in MY 2015/16 from 12.6 MMT in MY 2014/15 due mainly to flooding during the main rice crop growing season (August and September 2015) and insufficient water supplies for the dry season rice crop. In MY 2016/2017, rice production is forecast to rebound to 12.5 MMT in anticipation of favorable weather

Consumption

Total domestic consumption of milled rice is expected to increase to 10.72 MMT in MY 2015/16 and 10.75 MMT in MY 2016/2017. In general, per capita rice consumption in urban areas (180 kg/year) is lower than that in rural areas (200 kg/year).

Trade

Myanmar exported 1.73 MMT of rice in MY2015 and 80 percent was traded to China through border channels. Myanmar's rice exports are estimated to decrease to 1.5 MMT in MY2016 due mainly to lower production in 2015/16. Exports are likely to rebound to 1.6 MMT in MY2016 as crop areas affected by the floods in 2015 return to the production process.

Policy

The Myanmar Agricultural Development Bank (MADB), a government enterprise, currently provides seasonal crop production loan to farmers. The MADB provides 100,000 Kyat (Ks) ($85) credit per acre to paddy and sugar farmers with an interest rate of 5%. However, there is a 10 acre limit. Seasonal loans provided by MADB in 2014/15 totaled $960 million. The government also rents farm machinery to farmers for a nominal fee.

II. Corn

Corn

2014/2015

2015/2016

2016/2017

Market Begin

Oct 2014

Oct 2015

Oct 2016

Year

Burma

USDA

New

USDA

New

USDA

New

(Myanmar)

Official

Post

Official

Post

Official

Post

Area Harvested

470

470

500

520

0

530

Beginning Stocks

53

53

33

47

0

57

Production

1975

1950

2100

2050

0

2100

MY Imports

5

0

0

0

0

0

TY Imports

5

0

0

0

0

0

TY Imp. From US

0

0

0

0

0

0

Total Supply

2033

2003

2133

2097

0

2157

MY Exports

850

1346

900

1400

0

1450

TY Exports

850

1346

900

1400

0

1450

Feed and Residual

1050

550

1100

580

0

600

FSI Consumption

100

60

100

60

0

60

Total Consumption

1150

610

1200

640

0

660

Ending Stocks

33

47

33

57

0

47

Total Distribution

2033

2003

2133

2097

0

2157

Production

Corn production in Myanmar is expected to grow to 2 MMT in MY 2015/16 and 2.1 MMT in MY 2016/17due to the expansion of the rain fed corn growing areas, particularly in the Sagaing region (northwest part of the country). Farmers primarily use high-yield hybrid seeds, which account for about 90 percent of corn production. Trade sources indicated that the Charoen Pokphand Group (CP) from Thailand has a 70-80 percent share of Myanmar's hybrid corn seed market. About 90 percent of Myanmar's corn production area is located in the northwest and eastern parts of the country.

Consumption

Domestic corn consumption is expected to grow in MY 2015/16 and MY 2016/17 in line with the growth of Myanmar's livestock industries, especially poultry and swine. Most of the corn supplies are delivered to feed mills located in Rangoon, Mandalay, and Shan State.

Trade

MY 2016/17 corn exports are forecast to increase around 50,000 MT in anticipation of increased production. In the meantime, export demand from China will likely remain strong. According to government and trade sources, almost 95 to 97 percent of Myanmar's corn exports take place along the border between Myanmar and China.

Policy

The government does not have any subsidy program for corn production. The Ministry of Agriculture and Irrigation (MOAI) has developed corn seed varieties for research and commercialization and holds an estimated 8 percent share of the corn seed market. There are no trade restrictions for corn exports, however, permits are required for the import of corn.

III. Wheat

Wheat

2014/2015

2015/2016

2016/2017

Market Begin

Jul 2014

Jul 2015

Jul 2016

Year

Burma

USDA

New

USDA

New

USDA

New

(Myanmar)

Official

Post

Official

Post

Official

Post

Area Harvested

110

112

110

112

0

110

Beginning Stocks

0

0

0

0

0

10

Production

200

200

200

200

0

200

MY Imports

290

330

350

350

0

360

TY Imports

290

330

350

350

0

360

TY Imp. From US

12

30

0

0

0

30

Total Supply

490

530

550

550

0

570

MY Exports

0

0

0

0

0

0

TY Exports

0

0

0

0

0

0

Feed and Residual

0

0

0

0

0

0

FSI Consumption

490

530

550

540

0

550

Total Consumption

490

530

550

540

0

550

Ending Stocks

0

0

0

10

0

20

Total Distribution

490

530

550

550

0

570

Production

Wheat production in Myanmar is only cultivated at a subsistence level in the northwest, (Sagaing Division), central (Mandalay), and eastern (Shan State) parts of the country. These regions have limited rainfall, thus, yields are minimal at around 1.8 metric tons per hectare. Almost all wheat production is consumed domestically.

Wheat production in Myanmar is expected to remain flat at 200,000 MT in MY 2015/16 and MY 2016/17 due to the limited area suitable for wheat cultivation and lower financial returns compared to other crops such as beans and lentils. Despite its low quality, farmers still grow wheat primarily for animal feed.

Consumption

Consumption of wheat flour is expected to continue to grow in MY 2015/16 and MY 2016/17. Population growth and changing lifestyles that incorporate a more western-oriented diet and the opening of new bakeries and fast food shops, especially in Yangon, Mandalay, Nay Pyi Taw, Bagan and other cities where the tourism industry is growing, is contributing to the expansion.

Trade

Local production is insufficient to meet domestic demand, thus, Myanmar is expected to rely on imports to meet growing domestic consumption. Thus, wheat imports are expected to grow to 350,000 MT in MY 2015/16 and 360,000 MT in MY 2016/17.

The main suppliers of imported wheat are Australia, Ukraine, Romania Russia, Brazil, India, and the United States. According to government statistics, Myanmar imported about 4,000 MT of wheat flour from China, Thailand and India in 2015.

Although there are more than 20 small scale flour mills in upper Myanmar, the key players in the domestic wheat industry are the U Kyu Family Group, Capital Diamond Star and Htun Myittar companies, which are located in Rangoon. Together, these three companies have a 90 percent share of the Myanmar wheat market.

Policy

The government does not have any support programs for wheat producers, however, it does conduct wheat variety trials with contract farmers and disseminates the results publicly.

IV. Beans and Pulses

Market Begin Year

2014\2015

2015\2016

2016\2017

Burma

Jan 2015

JAN 2016

Jan 2017

USD Official

New Post

USD Official

New Post

USD Official

New Post

Area Harvested

4, 400

4, 100

4, 300 (1000 HA)

Beginning Stocks

183

308

208 (1000 MT)

Production

5, 280

4, 920

5, 160 (1000 MT)

MY Import

0

0

0

TY Import

0

0

0

TY import from US

0

0

0

Total Supply

5, 463

5, 228

5, 368 (1000 MT)

MY export

1, 540

1, 400

1, 450 (1000 MT)

TY Export

1, 540

1, 400

1, 450 (1000 MT)

Feed and Residual

165

170

175 (1000 MT)

FSI Consumption

3, 450

3, 450

3, 450 (1000 MT)

Total Consumption

3, 615

3, 620

3, 625 (1000 MT)

Ending Stocks

308

208

293 (1000 MT)

Total Distribution

5, 463

5, 020

5, 368

Yield

1.20

1.20

1.20

Production

Beans and pulses in Myanmar are normally grown immediately after the harvest of the main rice paddy crop in the delta region. They are also grown as a monsoon crops in the central plains. About 70 percent of all pulses are grown during the winter season with yields ranging between 0.7-1.3 MT/hectare. Higher prices are likely to result in increased bean and pulse production in MY 2015/16 and MY 2016/2017.

Consumption

Consumption is expected to rise due to increased consumer and animal feed demand.

Trade

Myanmar exported 1.54 million metric tons of pulses in MY 2015. Black Matpe, Green Mung and Toor whole beans accounted for 80 percent of the varieties exported. Border exports of beans and pulses along the Myanmar and India border totaled 284, 262 MT in 2015. Strong export demand, particularly from India and China, led domestic prices for all types of beans and pulses to increase sharply in

2015. Matpe bean prices steadily increased between January and November and reached a 20-year record high at US$1,640/MT in October when domestic supplies dwindled and demand for Matpe seeds for sowing increased. Myanmar bean and pulse exports are expected to increase to 1.4 MMT in MY 2015/16 and 1.45 MMT 2016/17 mainly due to sustained demand from India. Myanmar beans and pulses primarily consist of black Matpe, Green Mung, Toor whole, kidney beans and cow pea beans. India is the largest importer of Myanmar's beans and pulses accounting for 80 percent of all imports.

Policy

The government does not provide any support to bean and pulse producers.