Highlights

Corn production is likely to increase slightly in marketing year (MY) 2016/17 (October/September) to 24.2 MMT, mostly due higher planted area than initially anticipated, and assuming favorable weather conditions. The wheat production estimate is down for MY2016/17 (July/June), due to insufficient water supply in the “Bajio" region (Guanajuato, Michoacan, and Jalisco). Rice production is forecast to be up in MY2016/17, reflecting information from industry and official contacts. The Post/New total sorghum production and harvested area estimates for MY 2015/16 were revised downward and upward, respectively, based on updated official data. MY2016/17 imports are forecast lower for corn while up slightly for wheat.

WHEAT

Production

Total wheat production and harvested area estimates for MY 2016/17 (July/June) have been revised downward based on updated official data, which reflects relatively insufficient water supply, mainly in the “Bajio" region, encompassing Guanajuato, Michoacan, and Jalisco. The National Water Commission (CONAGUA) reported that as of May 24, 2016, in the state of Guanajuato the main dams registered a level of capacity lower than the same date in 2015 As a result, official sources indicated that planting intentions were reduced by approximately 30,000 hectares in that region, as many growers have reportedly switched acreage to barley, which has lower water requirements. Practically all of the production in the Bajio region is irrigated. While the production throughout Bajio decreased, overall production in Mexico, especially in Sonora and Baja California, the main wheat producing states, was reported as good by sources of the Secretariat of Agriculture, Livestock, Rural Development, Fisheries and Foodstuffs (SAGARPA).

Trade

The Post/New total wheat import estimate for MY 2016/17 has been revised upward from USDA/Official data to 4.3 MMT, based on official data from the General Customs Directorate of the Secretariat of Finance (SHCP) and SAGARPA for the first ten months of this marketing year. The revised data reflects the impact of lower than previously estimated domestic production.

Stocks

The Post/New ending stocks estimate for MY 2015/16 is less than the USDA/Official estimate (579,000 MT) as a result of slightly lower-than-expected production.

Production, Supply and Demand Data Statistics:

Wheat

2014/2015

2015/2016

2016/2017

Market Begin Year

Jul 2014

Jul 2015

Jul 2016

Mexico

USDA Official

New Post

USDA Official

Brazil

USDA Official

New Post

Area Harvested

707

707

818

825

775

710

Beginning Stocks

319

319

528

528

588

579

Production

3687

3687

3760

3751

4100

3970

MY Imports

4476

4476

4400

4400

4200

4300

TY Imports

4476

4476

4400

4400

4200

4300

TY Imp. from U.S.

3065

3065

0

2800

0

3200

Total Supply

8482

8482

8688

8679

8888

8849

MY Exports

1104

1104

1100

1100

1200

1200

TY Exports

1104

1104

1100

1100

1200

1200

Feed and Residual

400

400

400

400

450

450

FSI Consumption

6450

6450

6600

6600

6670

6670

Total Consumption

6850

6850

7000

7000

7120

7120

Ending Stocks

528

528

588

579

568

529

Total Distribution

8482

8482

8688

8679

8888

8849

CORN

Production

Due to revised SAGARPA data, and preliminary information from private sources, the Post/New estimates for corn production and harvested area for MY 2016/17 were adjusted upward. Official sources stated that corn planting intentions of the main producing states for the 2016 spring/summer crop cycle have been higher than initially anticipated, due the lack of feasible alternative crops, and assuming favorable weather conditions. Since approximately 88 percent of the corn produced in spring/summer cycle is rain-fed, the rains starting in June are critical to crop production. The main producing states of this crop cycle are Jalisco, Mexico, Michoacan, Chiapas, Guanajuato, Oaxaca and Puebla. These states account for approximately 55 percent of the spring/summer corn production. Approximately 76 percent of Mexican corn is obtained from the spring-summer crop cycle.

If favorable weather conditions prevail, the overall yield for the MY2016/17 corn crop in Mexico is forecast to reach 3.408 MT/ha, which is slightly lower over the MY2015/16 average yield. The yield level of MY2015/16 was considered exceptional due to the very favorable weather conditions. The Post/New MY2015/16 production and harvested area estimates were revised upward, reflecting final preliminary official data from SAGARPA

Consumption

The Post/New total consumption estimate for MY2015/16 has been revised upward from USDA/Official figures. According to private and official sources feed consumption is expected to shift somewhat from sorghum to corn, due to lower than previously estimated domestic sorghum production. For MY2016/17, the total corn consumption estimate remains unchanged.

Trade

The Post/New total corn import estimate for MY 2016/17 has been revised downward from USDA/Official data to 12.5 MMT, reflecting the impact of higher-than previously estimated domestic production. Similarly, the Post/New total corn export estimate for MY 2015/16 has been revised downward from USDA/Official data to 900,000 MT, based on official data from SAGARPA for the first eight months of this marketing year.

Stocks

The Post/New MY2015/16 estimated ending stocks were revised upward, due to higher-than-previously estimated domestic production. The ending stocks estimate was reflected in the carry over for the MY 2016/17, which was also adjusted upward from USDA/Official estimate.

Production, Supply and Demand Data Statistics

Corn

2014/2015

2015/2016

2016/2017

Market Begin Year

Oct 2014

Oct 2015

Oct 2016

Mexico

USDA Official

New Post

USDA Official

Brazil

USDA Official

New Post

Area Harvested

7325

7325

7100

7200

6950

7100

Beginning Stocks

2603

2603

4118

4118

3618

4518

Production

25480

25480

24000

25000

23500

24200

MY Imports

11269

11269

12000

12000

13500

12500

TY Imports

11269

11269

12000

12000

13500

12500

TY Imp. from U.S.

11168

11168

0

11900

0

12400

Total Supply

39352

39352

40118

41118

40618

41218

MY Exports

784

784

1000

900

800

800

TY Exports

784

784

1000

900

800

800

Feed and Residual

17700

17700

18700

18900

19150

19150

FSI Consumption

16750

16750

16800

16800

16900

16900

Total Consumption

34450

34450

35500

35700

36050

36050

Ending Stocks

4118

4118

3618

4518

3768

4368

Total Distribution

39352

39352

40118

41118

40618

41218

SORGHUM

Production

The Post/New total sorghum production and harvested area estimates for MY 2015/16 have been revised downward and upward, respectively, based on updated official data released by SAGARPA. These statistics include the final result of the 2015 spring/summer crop cycle, as well as from available information as of April 30, 2016, for the 2015/16 fall/winter crop cycle.

Consumption

The Post/New total consumption estimate for MY2015/16 has been revised downward from the USDA/Official estimate to 6.3 MMT, based on information from official sources. Feed consumption is expected to shift away from sorghum to feed corn, due to lower than previously estimated domestic sorghum production and consequently higher domestic prices.

Stocks

The Post/New estimated ending stocks for MY 2015/16 have been increased to 288,000 MT in comparison with USDA/Official estimate in response to reduced consumption. The ending stocks estimate was reflected in the carry over for MY 2016/17, which was also adjusted upward from USDA/Official estimate.

Production, Supply and Demand Data Statistics:

Sorghum

2014/2015

2015/2016

2016/2017

Market Begin Year

Oct 2014

Oct 2015

Oct 2016

Mexico

USDA Official

New Post

USDA Official

Brazil

USDA Official

New Post

Area Harvested

1715

1715

1600

1622

1800

1800

Beginning Stocks

647

647

338

338

238

288

Production

6270

6270

5700

5550

6900

6900

MY Imports

29

29

700

700

700

700

TY Imports

29

29

700

700

700

700

TY Imp. from U.S.

29

29

0

700

0

700

Total Supply

6946

6946

6738

6588

7838

7888

MY Exports

8

8

0

0

0

0

TY Exports

8

8

0

0

0

0

Feed and Residual

6500

6500

6400

6200

7400

7400

FSI Consumption

100

100

100

100

100

100

Total Consumption

6600

6600

6500

6300

7500

7500

Ending Stocks

338

338

238

288

338

388

Total Distribution

6946

6946

6738

6588

7838

7888

RICE

Production

The Post/New total rice production estimate for MY 2015/16 (October to September) has been revised upward by 4.5 percent from USDA/Official estimates to 233,000 MT (rough production), reflecting the most recent data from SAGARPA as of April 30, 2016. This volume of rough rice production is equivalent to 160,000 MT of milled rice. The Post/New estimation includes the preliminary final official figures for the 2015 spring/summer crop cycle and the updated data of the 2015/16 fall/winter crop cycle. Similarly, the production estimate for MY2016/17 has been adjusted slightly upward to 252,000 MT (rough production) from the estimate reflecting information from industry and official contacts. SAGARPA officials stated that their updated data for MY 2016/17 is based on information of its state offices and farmers' planting intentions. This rice rough production is equivalent to 173,000 MT of milled rice.

Stocks

As a result of new domestic production information, the Post/New MY 2015/16 ending stocks estimate has been increased slightly, to 139,000 MT, from the Official estimates, due to higher-than-previously estimated domestic production. This is reflected in the upward adjustment to MY2016/17 carry over as well.

Production, Supply and Demand Data Statistics:

Rice, Milled

2014/2015

2015/2016

2016/2017

Market Begin Year

Oct 2014

Oct 2015

Oct 2016

Mexico

USDA Official

New Post

USDA Official

Brazil

USDA Official

New Post

Area Harvested

44

44

39

39

42

42

Beginning Stocks

151

151

152

152

132

139

Production

179

179

153

160

165

173

MY Imports

261

261

223

233

240

252

TY Imports

6870

6870

6870

6870

6870

6870

TY Imp. from U.S.

688

688

700

700

750

750

Total Supply

708

708

700

700

750

750

MY Exports

613

613

0

560

0

600

TY Exports

1018

1018

1005

1012

1047

1062

Feed and Residual

2

2

3

3

2

2

FSI Consumption

2

2

5

5

2

2

Total Consumption

864

864

870

870

880

880

Ending Stocks

152

152

132

139

165

180

Total Distribution

1018

1018

1005

1012

1047

1062