Highlights

The Ministry of Agriculture foresees a slight decline in the MY2016/2017 grain production because of drought conditions and as result of a lack of rain in production areas of Algeria. Algeria will most likely import to compensate for the shortfall in domestic production.

Algiers

The Ministry of Agriculture foresees a slight decline in cereal production. Newly appointed Minister of Agriculture, Chelghoum Abdeslam announced at the beginning of the harvest season that agricultural production and especially cereal, was reduced by the lack of rainfall and the resulting drought in some parts of the country, and a slight decline in cereal production is expected. Eastern Algeria benefited from widespread precipitation, while large swathes of land normally planted to cereal in western Algeria suffered drought conditions due to a lack of rainfall. No official figures or forecasts have been released yet. The Minister of Agriculture also announced that the GOA is prepared to import wheat to satisfy domestic demand.

Meanwhile, Algeria implemented a five-year program (2015-2019) to achieve self-sufficiency in durum wheat with the goal to reduce its imports of cereal by increasing domestic production. The newly appointed Minister of Agriculture released figures regarding durum wheat production average during the period 2009-2015 estimated at 2.1 million tons compared 1.35 million tons in 2000-2008, an increase of 61%, due to improved technical and economic conditions as well as favorable weather in the main production areas.

To meet the need for wheat estimated at 8 million tons per year, the Minister Abdeslam stressed the use of irrigation as an option to secure extra production besides the necessary effort to improve technical performances through research and development, recalling that GOA grants incentives to grain farmers for the acquisition of irrigation equipment, including funding of 50% for acquisition and facilitation through credits and loans.

Wheat

2014\2015

2015\2016

2016\2017

Market begin year

Jul 2015

Jul 2016

Jul 2017

Algeria

USDA Official

New Post

USDA Official

Brazil

USDA Official

New Post

Area harvested

1700

1700

2100

2100

2100

2100

Beginning stocks

4676

4676

3768

3768

4293

4399

Production

1900

1900

2700

2700

2700

2000

MY Import

7257

7257

8100

8181

7500

8000

TY Import

7257

7257

8100

8181

7500

8000

TY Import from US

135

135

0

168

0

160

Total Supply

13833

13833

14568

14649

14493

14399

MY Export

15

15

25

0

25

0

TY export

15

15

25

0

25

0

Feed and Residual

50

50

50

50

50

50

FSI

10000

10000

10200

10200

10400

10200

Ending stocks

10050

10050

10250

10250

10450

10250

Total distribution

3768

3768

4293

4399

4018

4149

Barley

2014\2015

2015\2016

2016\2017

Market begin year

Jul 2015

Jul 216

Jul 2017

Algeria

USDA Official

New Post

USDA Official

Brazil

USDA Official

New Post

Area harvested

800

800

1000

1000

1000

1000

Beginning stocks

1178

1178

1304

1304

1204

1204

Production

1300

1300

1300

1300

1300

1000

MY Import

876

876

650

650

650

750

TY Import

723

723

600

600

650

0

TY Import from US

0

0

0

0

0

0

Total Supply

3354

3354

3254

3254

3154

2954

MY Export

0

0

0

0

0

0

TY export

0

0

0

0

0

0

Feed and Residual

1700

1700

1700

1700

1700

1700

FSI

350

350

350

350

350

350

Ending stocks

2050

2050

2050

2050

2050

2050

Total distribution

1304

1304

1204

1204

1104

904