Coarse Grains. World Markets and Trade. October 2016 – USDA Oct. 12, 2016
For 2016/17, global corn production is projected marginally lower from last month, but still a record. Smaller crops for the EU, the United States, and Vietnam more than offset gains for Brazil and Thailand. Global trade is projected higher with larger imports for the EU, Mexico, Iran and Vietnam. Exports are raised for Argentina, Brazil, Ukraine, and the United States. The U.S. season-average farm price is forecast 5 cents higher to $3.25 per bushel.
FOB export quotes for most origins have been mostly range-bound over the last month. Prices were initially edging lower, but rose following the release of the USDA Grain Stocks report that showed smaller-than-expected corn stocks. Argentine prices are up $1/ton to $173, Brazil is down $3/ton to $189, and U.S. quotes are down $3/ton to $162. Black Sea, however, dropped $29/ton to $166 as a result of harvest pressure.
TRADE CHANGES IN 2016/17
- U.S. corn is up 1.5 million tons to 56.5 million, a nine-year high, based on strong early-season sales and shipments.
- Argentine corn is up 500,000 tons to 25.5 million on rising global demand and the expectation of competitive prices later in the season.
- Brazilian corn is up 1.0 million tons to 21.0 million based on a larger forecast crop.
- EU corn and barley are cut 300,000 tons each to 1.7 million and to 6.2 million, respectively, on smaller crops.
- Thai corn is boosted 200,000 tons to 400,000 on larger exportable supplies.
- Ukrainian corn is raised 700,000 tons to 17.7 million on expectations of stronger demand from the EU, its top market.
- Russian barley is down 400,000 tons to 4.0 million on a smaller crop.
- Algerian corn is up 200,000 tons to 4.3 million reflecting expectations of growing feed demand.
- EU corn is up 1.5 million tons to 13.5 million as tighter domestic feed grain supplies and low world corn prices are expected to boost imports.
- Iranian corn is up 500,000 tons to 6.0 million on expectations of stronger feed demand.
- Mexican corn is up 300,000 tons to 13.8 million on a fast pace of early season sales.
- Peruvian corn is raised 200,000 tons to 2.9 million on higher expected feed use, evidenced by a fast pace of purchases from the United States.
- Vietnamese corn is boosted 500,000 tons to 6.5 million to partly offset a smaller crop.
TRADE CHANGES IN 2015/16
Selected Exporters – based on trade data
- U.S. corn is boosted 1.0 million tons to 50.5 million reflecting strong September shipments. Sorghum is cut 350,000 tons to 8.0 million. Barley is cut 100,000 tons to 175,000.
- Argentine corn is raised 800,000 tons to 21.3 million.
- Brazilian corn is boosted 1.9 million tons to 35.4 million.
- Canadian corn is up 100,000 tons to 1.8 million. Barley is down 150,000 tons to 1.2 million.
- EU barley is cut 200,000 tons to 10.1 million.
- Ukrainian barley is down 100,000 tons to 4.6 million.
Selected Importers – based on trade data
- Algerian corn is up 200,000 tons to 4.3 million.
- Brazilian corn is down 134,000 tons to 1.6 million.
- Canadian corn is boosted 100,000 tons to 1.3 million.
- EU corn is up 200,000 tons to 13.4 million.
- Iranian corn is raised 700,000 tons to 6.6 million.
- Malaysian corn is up 300,000 tons to 3.8 million.
- Mexican corn is boosted 300,000 tons to 13.8 million.
- Peruvian corn is raised 200,000 tons to 2.9 million.
- Vietnamese corn is up 800,000 tons to 8.0 million.
- Chinese sorghum is boosted 400,000 tons to 7.8 million.