U.S. Market Shares Peaks on Strong EU Imports

European Union soybean imports have been growing steadily over the last few years along with U.S. market share, which is expected to approach 40 percent in 2015/16. Imports from the United States are up as well as the total quantity of soybeans imported from all sources. If realized, this will be the largest import volume from the United States since 2003 and the largest U.S. trade share since the 1990s. This increase reflects both the surge in U.S. exports and the slowing of South American trade observed in recent months.

EU soybean imports are forecast to decline to 13.0 million tons in 2016/17. This lower volume, along with an expected increase in South American supplies, will likely lead to reduced import volume and trade share for the United States, with the U.S. share returning to levels typically observed over the past few years. The decline in EU soybean imports is expected to be offset by increased imports of soybean meal, reflecting both increased availability from South America and growing need to augment domestic protein meal supplies. Prospects of reduced rapeseed production and limited expansion of sunflowerseed crush are expected to contribute to increased soybean meal demand in the EU. The move to increase meal imports at the expense of soybean crush is further encouraged by the limited domestic demand for the oil, where excess soybean oil is generally exported to North Africa. With prospects for increased crush in South America, the EU will face increasing competition for soybean oil in North Africa which will further reduce the incentive to import additional soybeans for crush.

OVERVIEW

2016/17

Global oilseed production is forecast up this month, primarily on higher soybean and rapeseed output. Soybean production is projected up for the United States, Brazil, and Canada. Rapeseed crop is raised for Australia and Canada. Soybean imports are forecast higher on greater demand by Iran, Mexico, and Thailand. Exports are up on larger shipments from the United States, Canada, and Paraguay, more than offsetting the reduction in Argentina exports. Global stocks are up significantly led by Argentina, Brazil, China, and the United States. The U.S. season-average farm price is unchanged at $9.05 per bushel.

2015/16

Global soybean production is slightly up on higher Indian production, offsetting a reduction in the United States. Imports are up on a stronger demand from the European Union, Mexico, and Thailand. Exports are down slightly with smaller shipments from the United States and Brazil more than offsetting gains from Paraguay and Uruguay. Global stocks are raised this month, mainly on reduced South American crush and exports.

SOYBEAN PRICES

U.S. export bids in September, FOB Gulf, averaged $397/ton, down $16 from last month. For the week ending September 29, U.S. 2016/17 soybean export commitments (outstanding sales plus accumulated exports) to China totaled 12.6 million tons compared to 9.2 million a year ago. Total commitments to the world are 28.3 million tons, compared to 21.9 million for the same period last year.

2016/17 TRADE OUTLOOK CHANGES

  • United States
    • Soybean exports are up 1.1 million tons to 55.1 million on a larger production forecast and greater exportable supplies.
    • Rapeseed imports are raised 135,000 tons to 646,000 on strong first quarter trade.
  • Argentina soybean exports are down 1.0 million tons to 9.7 million on reduced competitiveness.
  • Australia
    • Soybean meal imports are down 100,000 tons to 850,000 on slowing import growth.
    • Rapeseed exports are up 100,000 tons to 2.8 million in response to greater exportable supplies.
    • Cottonseed exports are raised 100,000 tons to 300,000 following a larger production forecast and larger exportable supplies.
  • Bolivia soybean meal exports are up 100,000 tons to 1.9 million in line with higher late-season 2015/16 exports.
  • Brazil soybean oil exports are up 170,000 tons to 1.5 million on continued strong export volume seen in 2016.
  • Canada rapeseed exports are up 100,000 tons to 9.7 million, and soybean exports are up 150,000 tons to 4.0 million, both on higher exportable supplies.
  • China sunflowerseed oil imports are raised 100,000 tons to 850,000, reflecting strengthening demand carried over from 2015/16.
  • India
    • Sunflowerseed meal imports are up 100,000 tons to 140,000 on higher purchases expected from Ukraine.
    • Soybean oil imports are raised 300,000 tons to 3.6 million following lower import duties for both crude and refined oil.
  • Indonesia palm oil exports are up 250,000 tons to 26.0 million on reduced exportable supplies and increased imports in Malaysia.
  • Iran soybean imports are up 220,000 tons to 2.1 million, in line with strengthening demand carried over from 2015/16.
  • South Korea soybean meal imports are lowered 100,000 tons to 2.0 million on large carry-in stocks.
  • Malaysia palm oil imports are raised 400,000 tons to 800,000, and exports are reduced 500,000 tons to 17.5 million, on lower production estimates in 2016/17.
  • Mexico soybean meal imports are up 500,000 tons to 2.6 million and soybean imports are up 200,000 tons to 4.2 million, on increased domestic demand.
  • Paraguay soybean meal exports are cut by 315,000 tons to 2.7 million, while soybean exports are raised 350,000 tons to 5.3 million, reflecting smaller growth in crush.
  • Thailand soybean meal imports are reduced 150,000 tons to 3.2 million, while soybean imports are up 200,000 tons to 2.7 million, reflecting larger growth in crush.
  • Turkey sunflowerseed meal and sunflowerseed oil imports are both lowered 100,000 tons to 880,000 and 890,000, respectively, on greater supplies of domestically produced seed.
  • Venezuela
    • Soybean imports are cut 110,000 tons to 50,000, reflecting the country's severe economic troubles.
    • Soybean meal and oil are also lowered 350,000 tons and 195,000 tons to 750,000 and 190,000, respectively, on declining 2015/16 trade.

2015/16 TRADE CHANGES

Selected Countries – based on trade data

  • United States soybean exports are lowered 110,000 tons to 52.7 million.
  • Argentina soybean meal exports are down 1.0 million tons to 30.6 million.
  • Bolivia soybean meal exports are up 225,000 tons to 1.9 million.
  • Brazil soybean exports are down 1.1 million tons to 54.4 million, while soybean meal exports are also lowered 193,000 tons to 15.4 million.
  • China sunflowerseed oil imports are up 100,000 tons to 900,000, while palm oil imports are cut 400,000 tons to 4.6 million.
  • European Union
    • Soybean meal imports are down 500,000 tons to 19.9 million, and soybean imports are up 500,000 tons to 14.2 million.
    • Sunflowerseed and sunflowerseed oil imports are both up 100,000 tons to 550,000 and 1.3 million, respectively.
  • India soybean oil imports are raised 200,000 tons to 4.2 million.
  • Indonesia palm oil exports are lowered 300,000 tons to 24.0 million.
  • Iran soybean imports are increased by 114,000 tons to 1.9 million.
  • South Korea soybean meal imports are up 150,000 tons to 2.1 million.
  • Malaysia palm oil exports are lowered 200,000 tons to 16.6 million.
  • Mexico soybean meal imports are raised 409,000 tons to 2.4 million, and soybean imports are up 115,000 tons to 4.1 million.
  • Nigeria palm oil imports are cut 100,000 tons to 450,000.
  • Pakistan palm oil imports are lowered 200,000 tons to 3.0 million.
  • Paraguay soybean meal exports are down 315,000 tons to 2.7 million, while soybean exports are up 500,000 tons to 5.3 million.
  • Peru soybean meal imports are down 105,000 tons to 1.2 million.
  • Philippines soybean meal imports are up 150,000 tons to 2.7 million, and coconut oil exports are down 100,000 tons to 750,000.
  • Russia soybean meal imports are lowered 100,000 tons to 450,000.
  • Saudi Arabia soybean and soybean meal imports are both down 100,000 tons to 725,000 and 800,000, respectively.
  • South Africa soybean imports double from 150,000 tons to 300,000.
  • Thailand soybean imports are raised 198,000 tons to 2.8 million, and soybean meal imports are lowered 217,000 tons to 2.4 million.
  • Uruguay soybean exports are increased 125,000 tons to 1.8 million.
  • Venezuela soybean imports are cut 110,000 tons to 40,000. Soybean meal and soybean oil are also lowered 350,000 tons and 165,000 tons to 700,000 and 165,000, respectively.