Morocco. Grain and Feed Update June 20, 2016
For MY 2016/17, Post is lowering its estimates for wheat production from 3.7 to 2.8 million MT and barley production from 1 million MT to 0.9 million MT. The decline in total production is about 66 percent lower compared to the previous year due to the severe drought during the entire planting season.
Post's estimate in March assumed a somewhat normal rainfall during the spring time (March-April) which was not the case in some key production areas Chaouia (Settat), Khouribga, Safi, El Jadida. As a result, most of the fields that were planted late (December/January), suffered dramatically from the lack of rain during the spring and were not able to yield any production, and many farmers converted to sunflower instead of soft wheat.
Official figures from the Ministry of Agriculture confirmed that wheat and barley productions are very low this year and are in fact the lowest since the MY2006/07. Inadequate rainfall during the planting season and the shortage of rain during the critical months of February and March accounts for most of the drop in the area planted and in production, especially in the central and southern parts of Morocco.
On January 2, 2016 the Government of Morocco launched an Anti- Drought Emergency Program by which the GOM makes subsidized barley available to farmers in hard hit areas at fixed prices of $210 per MT. The Government will also support the transport of this commodity to remote areas.
On June 10, 2016 the Government of Morocco announced that it will raise the custom duty on soft wheat imports to 65 percent from 30 percent starting from June 15 to August 15, 2016. The aim is to stabilize prices at $290-$296 and ensure adequate supplies to the domestic market and protect the local harvest.
Imports of barley and other feed grains should be significantly higher this year because of generally poor pasture conditions and shortage of adequate feed grain supply. Morocco has some 17 million head of sheep, 6.2 million goats, and 3.2 million of cattle.
Production, Supply and Demand Data Statistics
Wheat, Morocco (Areas in 1,000 HA and Quantities in 1,000 MT)
Wheat | 2014\2015 | 2015\2016 | 2016\2017 | ||||||
Market Begin Year | June 2014 | June 2015 | June 2016 | ||||||
Morocco | USDA Official | Old Post | New Post | USDA Official | Old Post | New Post | USDA Official | New Post | |
Area Harvested | 3,060 | 3,060 | 3,060 | 3,200 | 3,200 | 3,200 | 2,100 | 2,109 | |
Beginning Stocks | 4,321 | 4,185 | 4,321 | 4,269 | 4,235 | 4,269 | 7,069 | ||
Production | 5,100 | 5,100 | 5,100 | 8,000 | 8,000 | 8,000 | 2,600 | ||
MY Import | 4,086 | 4,200 | 4,086 | 4,700 | 2,800 | 4,700 | 5,500 | 5,000 | |
TY Import | 4,086 | 4,200 | 4,086 | 4,700 | - | 4,700 | 5,500 | 5,000 | |
TY Imports from US | 10 | 10 | 10 | - | - | 9 | - | 10 | |
Total Supply | 13,507 | 13,485 | 13,507 | 16,969 | 15,035 | 16,969 | 15,169 | 14,869 | |
MY Export | 238 | 250 | 238 | 100 | 250 | 100 | 250 | 250 | |
TY Export | 224 | 250 | 224 | 100 | 250 | 100 | 250 | 250 | |
Feed and Residual | 400 | 400 | 400 | 800 | 800 | 800 | 200 | 800 | |
FSI Consumption | 8,600 | 8,600 | 8,600 | 9,000 | 9,000 | 9,000 | 9,400 | 9000 | |
Total Consumption | 9000 | 9000 | 9000 | 9,800 | 9,800 | 9,800 | 9,600 | 9,800 | |
Ending Stocks | 4,269 | 4,235 | 4,269 | 7,096 | 4,985 | 7,069 | 5,319 | 4,819 | |
Total Distribution | 13,507 | 13,485 | 13,507 | 16,696 | 15,035 | 16,969 | 15,169 | 14,869 | |
Yield | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | |
Barley, Morocco (Areas in 1,000 HA and Quantities in 1,000 MT)
Barley | 2014\2015 | 2015\2016 | 2016\2017 | |||||
Market Begin Year | June 2014 | June 2015 | June 2016 | |||||
Morocco | USDA Official | Old Post | New Post | USDA Official | New Post | USDA Official | New Post | |
Area Harvested | 1,400 | 1,400 | 1,400 | 1,600 | 1,600 | 1,135 | 1,135 | |
Beginning Stocks | 975 | 956 | 975 | 371 | 376 | 1,121 | 1,121 | |
Production | 1,700 | 1,700 | 1,700 | 3500 | 3,495 | 1,017 | 900 | |
MY Import | 396 | 400 | 400 | 650 | 650 | 700 | 700 | |
TY Import | 276 | 400 | 400 | 700 | 700 | 500 | 700 | |
TY Imports from US | 14 | - | - | - | - | - | - | |
Total Supply | 3,071 | 3,056 | 3,075 | 4,521 | 4,521 | 2,838 | 2,721 | |
MY Export | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | |
TY Export | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | |
Feed and Residual | 1,700 | 1,800 | 1,700 | 2,200 | 2,200 | 1500 | 1500 | |
FSI Consumption | 1,000 | 1,000 | 1,000 | 1,200 | 1,200 | 950 | 851 | |
Total Consumption | 2,700 | 2,800 | 2,700 | 3,400 | 3,400 | 2,450 | 2,351 | |
Ending Stocks | 371 | 256 | 376 | 1,121 | 1,121 | 388 | 370 | |
Total Distribution | 3,071 | 3,056 | 3,076 | 4,521 | 4,521 | 2,838 | 2,721 | |
Yield | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |
TS=TD | - | - | 1 | - | - | - | - | |
