Morocco. Grain and Feed Update / News / AgroChart

For MY 2016/17, Post is lowering its estimates for wheat production from 3.7 to 2.8 million MT and barley production from 1 million MT to 0.9 million MT. The decline in total production is about 66 percent lower compared to the previous year due to the severe drought during the entire planting season.

Post's estimate in March assumed a somewhat normal rainfall during the spring time (March-April) which was not the case in some key production areas Chaouia (Settat), Khouribga, Safi, El Jadida. As a result, most of the fields that were planted late (December/January), suffered dramatically from the lack of rain during the spring and were not able to yield any production, and many farmers converted to sunflower instead of soft wheat.

Official figures from the Ministry of Agriculture confirmed that wheat and barley productions are very low this year and are in fact the lowest since the MY2006/07. Inadequate rainfall during the planting season and the shortage of rain during the critical months of February and March accounts for most of the drop in the area planted and in production, especially in the central and southern parts of Morocco.

On January 2, 2016 the Government of Morocco launched an Anti- Drought Emergency Program by which the GOM makes subsidized barley available to farmers in hard hit areas at fixed prices of $210 per MT. The Government will also support the transport of this commodity to remote areas.

On June 10, 2016 the Government of Morocco announced that it will raise the custom duty on soft wheat imports to 65 percent from 30 percent starting from June 15 to August 15, 2016. The aim is to stabilize prices at $290-$296 and ensure adequate supplies to the domestic market and protect the local harvest.

Imports of barley and other feed grains should be significantly higher this year because of generally poor pasture conditions and shortage of adequate feed grain supply. Morocco has some 17 million head of sheep, 6.2 million goats, and 3.2 million of cattle.

Production, Supply and Demand Data Statistics

Wheat, Morocco (Areas in 1,000 HA and Quantities in 1,000 MT)

Wheat	2014\2015				2015\2016			2016\2017
Market Begin Year	June 2014				June 2015			June 2016
Morocco	USDA Official		Old Post	New Post	USDA Official	Old Post	New Post	USDA Official	New Post
Area Harvested	3,060		3,060	3,060	3,200	3,200	3,200	2,100	2,109
Beginning Stocks	4,321		4,185	4,321	4,269	4,235	4,269	7,069
Production	5,100		5,100	5,100	8,000	8,000	8,000	2,600
MY Import	4,086		4,200	4,086	4,700	2,800	4,700	5,500	5,000
TY Import	4,086		4,200	4,086	4,700	-	4,700	5,500	5,000
TY Imports from US	10		10	10	-	-	9	-	10
Total Supply		13,507	13,485	13,507	16,969	15,035	16,969	15,169	14,869
MY Export		238	250	238	100	250	100	250	250
TY Export		224	250	224	100	250	100	250	250
Feed and Residual		400	400	400	800	800	800	200	800
FSI Consumption		8,600	8,600	8,600	9,000	9,000	9,000	9,400	9000
Total Consumption		9000	9000	9000	9,800	9,800	9,800	9,600	9,800
Ending Stocks		4,269	4,235	4,269	7,096	4,985	7,069	5,319	4,819
Total Distribution		13,507	13,485	13,507	16,696	15,035	16,969	15,169	14,869
Yield		2	2	2	3	3	3	1	1

Barley, Morocco (Areas in 1,000 HA and Quantities in 1,000 MT)

Barley	2014\2015				2015\2016		2016\2017
Market Begin Year	June 2014				June 2015		June 2016
Morocco	USDA Official		Old Post	New Post	USDA Official	New Post	USDA Official	New Post
Area Harvested	1,400		1,400	1,400	1,600	1,600	1,135	1,135
Beginning Stocks	975		956	975	371	376	1,121	1,121
Production	1,700		1,700	1,700	3500	3,495	1,017	900
MY Import	396		400	400	650	650	700	700
TY Import	276		400	400	700	700	500	700
TY Imports from US	14		-	-	-	-	-	-
Total Supply		3,071	3,056	3,075	4,521	4,521	2,838	2,721
MY Export		-	-	-	-	-	-	-
TY Export		-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Feed and Residual		1,700	1,800	1,700	2,200	2,200	1500	1500
FSI Consumption		1,000	1,000	1,000	1,200	1,200	950	851
Total Consumption		2,700	2,800	2,700	3,400	3,400	2,450	2,351
Ending Stocks		371	256	376	1,121	1,121	388	370
Total Distribution		3,071	3,056	3,076	4,521	4,521	2,838	2,721
Yield		1	1	1	2	2	1	1
TS=TD		-	-	1	-	-	-	-

Morocco. Grain and Feed Update June 20, 2016