For MY 2016/17, Post is lowering its estimates for wheat production from 3.7 to 2.8 million MT and barley production from 1 million MT to 0.9 million MT. The decline in total production is about 66 percent lower compared to the previous year due to the severe drought during the entire planting season.

Post's estimate in March assumed a somewhat normal rainfall during the spring time (March-April) which was not the case in some key production areas Chaouia (Settat), Khouribga, Safi, El Jadida. As a result, most of the fields that were planted late (December/January), suffered dramatically from the lack of rain during the spring and were not able to yield any production, and many farmers converted to sunflower instead of soft wheat.

Official figures from the Ministry of Agriculture confirmed that wheat and barley productions are very low this year and are in fact the lowest since the MY2006/07. Inadequate rainfall during the planting season and the shortage of rain during the critical months of February and March accounts for most of the drop in the area planted and in production, especially in the central and southern parts of Morocco.

On January 2, 2016 the Government of Morocco launched an Anti- Drought Emergency Program by which the GOM makes subsidized barley available to farmers in hard hit areas at fixed prices of $210 per MT. The Government will also support the transport of this commodity to remote areas.

On June 10, 2016 the Government of Morocco announced that it will raise the custom duty on soft wheat imports to 65 percent from 30 percent starting from June 15 to August 15, 2016. The aim is to stabilize prices at $290-$296 and ensure adequate supplies to the domestic market and protect the local harvest.

Imports of barley and other feed grains should be significantly higher this year because of generally poor pasture conditions and shortage of adequate feed grain supply. Morocco has some 17 million head of sheep, 6.2 million goats, and 3.2 million of cattle.

Production, Supply and Demand Data Statistics

Wheat, Morocco (Areas in 1,000 HA and Quantities in 1,000 MT)

Wheat

2014\2015

2015\2016

2016\2017

Market Begin Year

June 2014

June 2015

June 2016

Morocco

USDA

Official

Old Post

New

Post

USDA

Official

Old Post

New

Post

USDA

Official

New

Post

Area Harvested

3,060

3,060

3,060

3,200

3,200

3,200

2,100

2,109

Beginning Stocks

4,321

4,185

4,321

4,269

4,235

4,269

7,069

Production

5,100

5,100

5,100

8,000

8,000

8,000

2,600

MY Import

4,086

4,200

4,086

4,700

2,800

4,700

5,500

5,000

TY Import

4,086

4,200

4,086

4,700

-

4,700

5,500

5,000

TY Imports from US

10

10

10

-

-

9

-

10

Total Supply

13,507

13,485

13,507

16,969

15,035

16,969

15,169

14,869

MY Export

238

250

238

100

250

100

250

250

TY Export

224

250

224

100

250

100

250

250

Feed and Residual

400

400

400

800

800

800

200

800

FSI Consumption

8,600

8,600

8,600

9,000

9,000

9,000

9,400

9000

Total Consumption

9000

9000

9000

9,800

9,800

9,800

9,600

9,800

Ending Stocks

4,269

4,235

4,269

7,096

4,985

7,069

5,319

4,819

Total Distribution

13,507

13,485

13,507

16,696

15,035

16,969

15,169

14,869

Yield

2

2

2

3

3

3

1

1

Barley, Morocco (Areas in 1,000 HA and Quantities in 1,000 MT)

Barley

2014\2015

2015\2016

2016\2017

Market Begin Year

June 2014

June 2015

June 2016

Morocco

USDA

Official

Old Post

New

Post

USDA

Official

New

Post

USDA

Official

New

Post

Area Harvested

1,400

1,400

1,400

1,600

1,600

1,135

1,135

Beginning Stocks

975

956

975

371

376

1,121

1,121

Production

1,700

1,700

1,700

3500

3,495

1,017

900

MY Import

396

400

400

650

650

700

700

TY Import

276

400

400

700

700

500

700

TY Imports from US

14

-

-

-

-

-

-

Total Supply

3,071

3,056

3,075

4,521

4,521

2,838

2,721

MY Export

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

TY Export

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

Feed and Residual

1,700

1,800

1,700

2,200

2,200

1500

1500

FSI Consumption

1,000

1,000

1,000

1,200

1,200

950

851

Total Consumption

2,700

2,800

2,700

3,400

3,400

2,450

2,351

Ending Stocks

371

256

376

1,121

1,121

388

370

Total Distribution

3,071

3,056

3,076

4,521

4,521

2,838

2,721

Yield

1

1

1

2

2

1

1

TS=TD

-

-

1

-

-

-

-