Highlights

Post's marketing year (MY) 2016/17 (May/April) rice production is forecast marginally lower at 34.51 million metric tons (MMT) on estimated lower planting (11.7 million hectares). Based on the latest customs data, MY 2015/16 rice imports are lowered to 0.22 MMT. MY 2016/17 rice imports are also revised lower to 0.15 MMT on sufficient domestic supplies and uncompetitive imports due to the government decision to raise import duty to 25 percent. Post's MY 2016/17 (July/June) wheat import forecast is raised to 4.4 million tons on expectation of strong domestic demand and expected low international prices.

For MY 2016/17 (May/April), Post's rice production forecast is revised marginally lower to 34.51 MMT from 11.7 million hectares on reduced planting of Aus (summer) rice and increased Boro (winter) rice production. Aus (summer) rice (planted in March/April and harvested in July/August) production is estimated lower at 2.4 MMT due to decreased acreage (1.1 million hectare) against the initial expectation (1.2 million hectares) due to insufficient irrigation water at seedling and planting time and area shift to other competing crops. Field sources report that many farmers switched their land from Aus rice to jute, maize and vegetable cultivation due to higher returns. The Government of

Bangladesh's (GOB) notification for mandatory use of bulk burlap bags for five agricultural commodities is driving demand for jute and farmers have responded by increasing jute cultivation, which they expect will be more profitable than Aus rice. However, Boro (winter) rice production (planted in December/January and harvested in May/Jun) is forecast marginally higher and is revised up to 18.8 MMT (planted in December/January and harvested in May/Jun).

Given the normal progression of the 2016 monsoon, broadcasted Aman (autumn) rice planting was completed on schedule, and transplanted Aman (late autumn) rice seedling production and transplanting currently progressing well and will continue till August.

On April 24, 2016, the Ministry of Food (MOF) announced the procurement price for Boro milled and paddy (unmilled) at BDT 32 ($0.41) and BDT 23 ($0.29) per kilogram, which is procured during the period May 05, 2016 to August 31, 2016 with the target of 0.6 MMT for Boro rice and 0.7 MMT for Boro paddy.

Post's MY 2016/17 (July/June) wheat production forecast remains unchanged at 1.33 MMT assuming normal weather conditions during the planting and crop season (planted in November/December and harvested in March/April). During April to June 2016, the GOB domestically procured 0.2 MMT of MY 2015/16 wheat at the procurement price of BDT 28 ($0.35) per kilogram.

Rice and Wheat Market Prices

Sufficient supplies have resulted in weak domestic prices of wheat and rice in the recent months. For July 2016, the wholesale and retail prices for rice in Dhaka and Gazipur were BDT 26.3 ($0.33) and BDT 29.3 ($0.37) per kilogram, respectively, which were 7.5 percent and 5.4 percent less than same month last year (Figure 1). However, June rice prices improved as rice millers narrowed rice supply to the market and held back stocks for supplying rice to GOB Boro rice procurement program to avail higher price. For the same month, the average retail price of wheat flour (also called atta) in Dhaka was estimated at BDT 24 ($0.3) per kilogram, which was about 17 percent below last year and 18 percent below current rice retail prices.

Rice and Wheat Imports

The MY 2016/17 rice import forecast is lowered to 0.15 MMT on expectation of strong import protection policy impact. The added 25 percent tariff on rice imports further affected import prospects. MY 2015/16 rice imports are revised marginally lower to 0.22 MMT based on the latest customs data. MY 2016/17 wheat import forecast is raised to 4.4 MMT on expected strong domestic demand and lower international prices. Based on the current pace of imports, Post's MY 2015/16 wheat import estimate is revised up to 4.2 MMT on competitive prices.

Rice and Wheat Stocks

The government rice stocks on July 21, 2016 came down to 556,580 tons compared to 1.1 MMT same time last year. However, the government wheat stocks rose to 318,290 tons during the same period.

Policy

On June 2, 2016, the GOB increased tariffs from 10 to 25 percent and removed 10 percent regulatory duty on rice imports in place since December, 2015. In addition, the GOB also imposed a 15-percent value added tax (VAT), an advance income tax (AIT) of five percent, and an additional advanced trade VAT (ATV) of four percent. The tariff was raised and other taxes are added to stop cheaper Indian rice imports that generally constitute the largest share of the import market.

In the MY 2016/17, GOB set a target of procuring 0.7 MMT and 0.6 MMT of paddy (unmilled) and milled Boro rice in period May – August, 2016. In fiscal year (FY) 2015/16 (July to June), according to the MOF, Bangladesh procured 1.06 MMT and 199,989 metric tons (MT) of Boro and Aman milled rice from domestic market.

For the first time GOB procured Boro paddy directly at BDT 23 ($0.29) per kilogram from officially selected farmers who have a farmer identification card and a bank account. GOB procurement of Boro paddy from farmers was about four percent of rice production in the Boro season, which indicates a larger share of farmers did not participate in the GOB's price support program.

These farmers mostly sold their harvested paddy (unmilled rice) to agents and millers in open markets at lower prices BDT 11.25 – 13.75 ($0.14-0.17) per kilogram before starting the procurement program.

In the budget FY 2016-17, GOB withdrew the VAT for imported wheat and rice milling equipment and parts. In the budget, the GOB raised custom duty of wheat starch from 10 to 15 percent. For FY 2016/17, Bangladesh extended the export ban on non-fragrant rice. The GOB may allow aromatic/fragrant rice exports, pending permission from the Ministry of Commerce.

Bangladesh: Commodity, Rice, Milled, PSD

(Area in Thousand Hectares and Quantity in Thousand MT)

Rice, Milled

Market Begin Year

Bangladesh

2014/2015

2015/2016

2016/2017

May 2014

May 2015

May 2016

USDA

Official

New

Post

USDA

Official

New

Post

USDA

Official

New

Post

Area Harvested

11790

11790

11765

11765

11800

11690

Beginning Stocks

966

966

1592

1465

1138

685

Milled Production

34500

34500

34500

34500

34550

34515

Rough Production

51755

51755

51755

51755

51830

51778

Milling Rate (.9999)

6666

6666

6666

6666

6666

6666

MY Imports

1251

1224

250

220

250

150

TY Imports

595

600

250

220

250

150

TY Imp. from U.S.

0

0

0

0

0

0

Total Supply

36717

36690

36342

36185

35938

35350

MY Exports

25

25

4

0

0

0

TY Exports

25

25

4

0

0

0

Consumption and Residual

35100

35200

35200

35500

35200

35200

Ending Stocks

1592

1465

1138

685

738

150

Total Distribution

36717

36690

36342

36185

35938

35350

Bangladesh: Commodity, Wheat, PSD

(Area in Thousand Hectares and Quantity in Thousand MT)

Wheat

Market Begin Year

Bangladesh

2014/2015

2015/2016

2016/2017

Jul 2014

Jul 2015

Jul 2016

USDA

Official

New

Post

USDA

Official

New

Post

USDA

Official

New

Post

Area Harvested

415

415

420

420

425

425

Beginning Stocks

1338

1338

1753

1751

2153

1951

Production

1300

1300

1300

1300

1335

1335

MY Imports

3915

3913

4600

4200

4700

4400

TY Imports

3915

3913

4600

4200

4700

4400

TY Imp. from U.S.

0

0

0

0

0

0

Total Supply

6553

6551

7653

7251

8188

7686

MY Exports

0

0

0

0

0

0

TY Exports

0

0

0

0

0

0

Feed And Residual

0

0

0

0

0

0

FSI Consumption

4800

4800

5500

5300

6200

5900

Total Consumption

4800

4800

5500

5300

6200

5900

Ending Stocks

1753

1751

2153

1951

1988

1786

Total Distribution

6553

6551

7653

7251

8188

7686