Production

In MY 2016/17, overall production of EU-28 major oilseeds (rapeseed, sunflower and soybeans) is expected to be about 1 percent higher than in the previous year and will reach some 32.53 MMT. This is mainly an effect of higher average yield expectations for sunflower and somewhat higher for soybeans compared to the previous crop. Sunflower production is forecast to be up by more than 11 percent reaching 8.5 MMT. Major sunflower seeds producing EU countries increased their sunflower area, with the highest growth rates in Spain and Hungary, followed by Romania and Bulgaria. The leading producer France, however, reports a substantial decline in planted area due to unfavorable weather conditions. Overall, this results in a 0.5 percent increase in total sunflower area. Hungary, Romania, and Bulgaria have benefitted from favorable spring weather conditions promising an excellent sunflower crop. EU soybean production, which is still at a minor level but constantly increasing, is anticipated to be 2.7 percent up, totaling 2.3 MMT. Soybean area is revised down from previous forecasts and is expected to be 2.4 percent lower year-on-year. Bulgaria, Slovakia, Austria, Hungary, Italy, and to a lesser extent the Czech Republic report smaller acreages. With an expected production of 21.5 MMT, output of rapeseed is almost 3 percent lower compared to the previous year. Unfavorable growing conditions are expected to result in lower yields, especially in France, Germany, the UK, Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania. The outlook for rapeseed production in France is adjusted sharply downwards. Increased rapeseed acreage and favorable growing conditions in some eastern European countries like Hungary and Romania may not offset the reductions in major European producing countries.

Consumption

Higher output and availability of sunflower is expected to result in increased sunflower meal use in animal feed while rapeseed meal use will be reduced due to lower production. Together with an almost flat soybean meal use, total EU-28 consumption of major oilseeds meals in animal feed is forecast to remain almost flat in MY 2016/17 (plus 0.4 percent year-on-year).

Total of Major Oilseeds (Soybean, Rapeseed, Sunflower)

EU-28 Area of Major Oilseeds (in 1,000 ha)

Area Harvested

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016e

Rapeseed

6,317

6,800

6,746

6,515

6,550

Sunflower

4,236

4,620

4,290

4,200

4,220

Soybeans

431

480

571

850

830

Total

10,984

11,900

11,607

11,565

11,600

EU-28 Major Oilseeds Production (in 1,000 MT)

Production

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016e

Rapeseed

19,631

20,978

24,586

22,100

21,500

Sunflower

7,131

9,060

9,000

7,650

8,520

Soybeans

957

1,230

1,840

2,240

2,300

Total

27,719

31,268

35,426

31,990

32,320

EU-28 Major Oilseed Crush (in 1,000 MT)

Crush

MY 2012/13

MY 2013/14

MY 2014/15

MY 2015/16e

MY 2016/17f

Rapeseed

22,700

23,950

25,400

24,300

23,700

Soybeans

12,325

13,400

13,500

13,850

13,850

Sunflower

6,540

7,600

7,650

7,000

7,400

Total

41,565

44,950

46,550

45,150

44,950

Feed, Waste Use of Major Oilseeds Meals in the EU-28 (in 1,000 MT)

Feed, Waste Use Meals

MY 2012/13

MY 2013/14

MY 2014/15

MY 2015/16e

MY 2016/17f

Soybeans

26,000

28,300

29,300

29,700

29,800

Rapeseed

12,900

13,600

14,450

13,900

13,600

Sunflower

7,000

7,200

7,100

6,800

7,200

Total

45,900

49,100

50,850

50,400

50,600

Food Use of Major Oilseeds Oils in the EU-28 (in 1,000 MT)

Food Use Oil

MY 2012/13

MY 2013/14

MY 2014/15

MY 2015/16e

MY 2016/17f

Rapeseed Oil

2,500

2,800

2,900

2,900

2,900

Soybean Oil

1,000

990

1,000

1,000

1,000

Sunflower Oil

3,300

3,400

3,450

3,510

3,620

Total Oils

6,800

7,190

7,350

7,410

7,520

Industrial Use of Major Oilseeds Oils in the EU-28 (in 1,000 MT)

Industrial Use

MY 2012/13

MY 2013/14

MY 2014/15

MY 2015/16e

MY 2016/17f

Rape Oil

6,700

6,950

7,400

7,100

6,950

Soybean Oil

841

900

850

900

880

Sunflower Oil

220

250

240

230

230

Total

7,761

8,100

8,490

8,230

8,060

Soybean Complex

Trade figures are revised according to the most recent data available from the Global Trade Atlas; harvest and crush estimates from producing countries.

Oilseed, Soybean

2014/2015

2015/2016

2016/2017

Market Begin Year

Oct 2014

Oct 2015

Oct 2016

European Union

USDA Official

New Post

USDA Official

New Post

USDA Official

New Post

Area Planted

580

580

810

860

900

840

Area Harvested

571

571

802

850

900

830

Beginning Stocks

623

623

656

765

587

685

Production

1831

1840

2201

2240

2450

2300

MY Imports

13388

13388

13200

13200

12600

13100

MY Imp. from U.S.

3500

3500

3450

3450

3000

3000

Total Supply

15842

15851

16057

16205

15637

16085

MY Exports

116

116

150

150

150

150

Crush

13600

13500

13800

13850

13300

13850

Food Use Dom. Cons.

170

170

170

170

170

170

Feed Waste Dom. Cons.

1300

1300

1350

1350

1400

1400

Total Dom. Cons.

15070

14970

15320

15370

14870

15420

Ending Stocks

656

765

587

685

617

515

Total Distribution

15842

15851

16057

16205

15637

16085

(1000 HA) ,(1000 MT)

Meal, Soybean

2014/2015

2015/2016

2016/2017

Market Begin Year

Oct 2014

Oct 2015

Oct 2016

European Union

USDA Official

New Post

USDA Official

New Post

USDA Official

New Post

Crush

13600

13500

13800

13850

13300

13850

Extr. Rate, 999.9999

0.79

0.78

0.79

0.7798

0.79

0.7798

Beginning Stocks

254

254

252

238

212

226

Production

10744

10530

10902

10800

10507

10800

MY Imports

19158

19158

20700

19300

21700

19400

MY Imp. from U.S.

1124

1124

1000

1000

1000

1000

Total Supply

30156

29942

31854

30338

32419

30426

MY Exports

362

362

400

370

400

380

Industrial Dom. Cons.

10

10

10

10

10

10

Food Use Dom. Cons.

32

32

32

32

32

32

Feed Waste Dom. Cons.

29500

29300

31200

29700

31750

29800

Total Dom. Cons.

29542

29342

31242

29742

31792

29842

Ending Stocks

252

238

212

226

227

204

Total Distribution

30156

29942

31854

30338

32419

30426

(1000 MT) ,(PERCENT)

Oil, Soybean

2014/2015

2015/2016

2016/2017

Market Begin Year

Oct 2014

Oct 2015

Oct 2016

European Union

USDA Official

New Post

USDA Official

New Post

USDA Official

New Post

Crush

13600

13500

13800

13850

13300

13850

Extr. Rate, 999.9999

0.19

0.1837

0.19

0.1841

0.19

0.1834

Beginning Stocks

366

366

242

188

164

238

Production

2584

2480

2622

2550

2527

2540

MY Imports

252

252

250

300

250

300

MY Imp. from U.S.

0

0

0

0

0

0

Total Supply

3202

3098

3114

3038

2941

3078

MY Exports

1010

1010

1000

850

800

900

Industrial Dom. Cons.

900

850

900

900

900

880

Food Use Dom. Cons.

1000

1000

1000

1000

1000

1000

Feed Waste Dom. Cons.

50

50

50

50

50

50

Total Dom. Cons.

1950

1900

1950

1950

1950

1930

Ending Stocks

242

188

164

238

191

248

Total Distribution

3202

3098

3114

3038

2941

3078

(1000 MT) ,(PERCENT)

MY 2016/17

In MY 2016/17, soybean production is expected to increase slightly compared to MY 2015/16 because of higher yields. However, the total area planted in soybeans is lower because of declines in Bulgaria, Slovakia, Austria, Hungary, Italy, and to a lesser extent in the Czech Republic. A recovery in supply is expected because of higher South American plantings. Compared to MY 2015/16, crush is expected to remain stable and total soybean meal imports are expected to increase slightly, with a rise in the Netherlands and in Poland and a decline in all the other major importing countries. Feed use of soybean meal is expected to increase slightly as well.

MY 2015/16

Due to the damage to the soybean crop in Argentina and Uruguay, the availability of soybeans from South America will be limited in the coming months. In the Netherlands, part of the imports of meal from Argentina will be replaced with beans from the U.S. and to a lesser extent from Brazil to be crushed in the Netherlands. In spite of this new trend, total soybean imports in MY 2015/16 are expected to remain lower than in MY 2014/15.

Soybean meal imports and feed use are limited by the tight supply situation. In the Netherlands, which are the main importers of soybean meal in the EU, imports from third countries are expected to decline by ten percent compared to MY 2014/15. Soybean meal is partially substituted by other meals and in some countries, including Spain, there is an extensive use of wheat in the feed formula.

Compared to MY 2014/15, biofuel use of soybean oil increases by around 100,000 MT in Spain and decreases by around 110,000 MT in Germany.

Rapeseed Complex

Trade figures are revised according to the most recent data available from the Global Trade Atlas; harvest and crush estimates from producing countries.

Oilseed, Rapeseed

2014/2015

2015/2016

2016/2017

Market Begin Year

Jul 2014

Jul 2015

Jul 2016

European Union

USDA Official

New Post

USDA Official

New Post

USDA Official

New Post

Area Planted

6760

6760

6580

6580

6400

6517

Area Harvested

6746

6746

6503

6515

6329

6517

Beginning Stocks

1890

1890

1890

1855

1686

1725

Production

24586

24586

22046

22100

21200

21500

MY Imports

2317

2317

3300

3300

2500

2600

MY Imp. from U.S.

0

0

0

0

0

0

Total Supply

28793

28793

27236

27255

25386

25825

MY Exports

588

588

350

330

300

350

Crush

25365

25400

24300

24300

23000

23700

Food Use Dom. Cons.

0

0

0

0

0

0

Feed Waste Dom. Cons.

950

950

900

900

900

900

Total Dom. Cons.

26315

26350

25200

25200

23900

24600

Ending Stocks

1890

1855

1686

1725

1186

875

Total Distribution

28793

28793

27236

27255

25386

25825

(1000 HA) ,(1000 MT)

Meal, Rapeseed

2014/2015

2015/2016

2016/2017

Market Begin Year

Jul 2014

Jul 2015

Jul 2016

European Union

USDA Official

New Post

USDA Official

New Post

USDA Official

New Post

Crush

25365

25400

24300

24300

23000

23700

Extr. Rate, 999.9999

0.57

0.57

0.57

0.57

0.57

0.57

Beginning Stocks

173

173

219

241

170

192

Production

14458

14479

13851

13851

13110

13510

MY Imports

452

453

450

450

400

400

MY Imp. from U.S.

0

0

0

0

0

0

Total Supply

15083

15105

14520

14542

13680

14102

MY Exports

414

414

450

450

400

350

Industrial Dom. Cons.

0

0

0

0

0

0

Food Use Dom. Cons.

0

0

0

0

0

0

Feed Waste Dom. Cons.

14450

14450

13900

13900

13100

13600

Total Dom. Cons.

14450

14450

13900

13900

13100

13600

Ending Stocks

219

241

170

192

180

152

Total Distribution

15083

15105

14520

14542

13680

14102

(1000 MT) ,(PERCENT)

Oil, Rapeseed

2014/2015

2015/2016

2016/2017

Market Begin Year

Jul 2014

Jul 2015

Jul 2016

European Union

USDA Official

New Post

USDA Official

New Post

USDA Official

New Post

Crush

25365

25400

24300

24300

23000

23700

Extr. Rate, 999.9999

0.418

0.417

0.418

0.418

0.418

0.4169

Beginning Stocks

280

280

438

428

295

405

Production

10603

10593

10157

10157

9615

9880

MY Imports

261

261

250

210

300

230

MY Imp. from U.S.

2

2

2

2

0

0

Total Supply

11144

11134

10845

10795

10210

10515

MY Exports

356

356

350

340

300

350

Industrial Dom. Cons.

7400

7400

7250

7100

6850

6950

Food Use Dom. Cons.

2900

2900

2900

2900

2750

2900

Feed Waste Dom. Cons.

50

50

50

50

50

50

Total Dom. Cons.

10350

10350

10200

10050

9650

9900

Ending Stocks

438

428

295

405

260

265

Total Distribution

11144

11134

10845

10795

10210

10515

(1000 MT) ,(PERCENT)

MY 2016/17

European rapeseed production is expected to decrease by nearly 3 percent to 21.5 MMT in MY 2016/17. Though farmers have increased acreage by 35,000 hectares, growing conditions have not been as good as in the previous MY. This will result in lower yields especially in France, Germany, the UK, Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania. The outlook for rapeseed production in France was adjusted sharply downwards, since heavy rainfalls in May and June favored the development of insects and fungi. The outlook for German production was also revised down due to a lack of rain in Northeastern Germany. The reductions in major European producing countries could not be offset by favorable growing conditions in some eastern European countries like Hungary and Romania. In those countries, fair weather conditions with abundant rainfall and mild temperatures led to adjustment upwards for rapeseed production with the possibility of record yields in Romania.

The smaller rapeseed crop in MY 2016/17 will lead to a smaller supply of domestic production on the European market. Imports are expected to decrease due to tight global supplies and competition with other importers like China, Mexico and Japan. In particular, there is less export potential in Ukraine since farmers planted less rapeseed. European exports are expected to increase a bit due to production gains in Romania which will partly be shipped to Turkey. Rapeseed crush is expected to decrease further, leading to a smaller production of rapeseed meal and oil. European ending stocks of rapeseed are expected to shrink significantly.

As substitutes for rapeseed, it is estimated that there will be a good supply and competitive prices for sunflowers and soybeans in the future. Demand for rapeseed meal is mainly driven by the European dairy sector with most major producers reducing herds due to long-lasting low milk prices. In total, sunflower meal, soybean meal and grains are expected to replace rapeseed meal in feed ratios to some extent. The shut-down of biodiesel plants in France, plus more profitable biodiesel production from waste oil, animal fat and lower price imported oils like palm oil, has reduced European demand for rapeseed oil. Therefore, demand projections for the European biodiesel industry were adjusted down.

MY 2015/16

EU rapeseed production for MY 2015/16 was revised slightly upwards to 22.1 MMT in MY 2015/16 due to the latest update of official numbers in France and the UK. This is still nearly 2.5 MMT lower than the record crop in the previous MY. The lower supply of domestic production led to imports from Australia, Ukraine and Canada, which will nearly reach record levels. High imports could not offset lower production so crushing of rapeseed in the European is expected to decrease to 24.3 MMT. Stocks are expected to be a little lower at the end of the MY. Consumption of rapeseed meal decreased mainly due to availability. The use of rapeseed oil for biofuels was revised downwards due to adjustments for France.

Sunflower Complex

Trade figures have been revised according to the most recent data available from the Global Trade Atlas; recent harvest and crush estimates from producing countries.

Oilseed, Sunflowerseed

2014/2015

2015/2016

2016/2017

Market Begin Year

Oct 2014

Oct 2015

Oct 2016

European Union

USDA Official

New Post

USDA Official

New Post

USDA Official

New Post

Area Planted

0

0

0

0

0

0

Area Harvested

4289

4290

4203

4200

4255

4220

Beginning Stocks

887

887

974

974

609

614

Production

9000

9000

7665

7650

8500

8520

MY Imports

266

266

370

390

300

320

MY Imp. from U.S.

40

0

40

0

40

0

Total Supply

10153

10153

9009

9014

9409

9454

MY Exports

519

519

380

380

350

370

Crush

7650

7650

7000

7000

7400

7400

Food Use Dom. Cons.

530

530

540

540

540

540

Feed Waste Dom. Cons.

480

480

480

480

485

480

Total Dom. Cons.

8660

8660

8020

8020

8425

8420

Ending Stocks

974

974

609

614

634

664

Total Distribution

10153

10153

9009

9014

9409

9454

(1000 HA) ,(1000 MT)

Meal, Sunflowerseed

2014/2015

2015/2016

2016/2017

Market Begin Year

Oct 2014

Oct 2015

Oct 2016

European Union

USDA Official

New Post

USDA Official

New Post

USDA Official

New Post

Crush

7650

7650

7000

7000

7400

7400

Extr. Rate, 999.9999

0.543

0.5438

0.543

0.5429

0.543

0.5432

Beginning Stocks

188

188

150

156

151

116

Production

4154

4160

3801

3800

4018

4020

MY Imports

3210

3210

3250

3200

3750

3400

MY Imp. from U.S.

0

0

0

0

0

0

Total Supply

7552

7558

7201

7156

7919

7556

MY Exports

302

302

200

210

200

230

Industrial Dom. Cons.

0

0

0

0

0

0

Food Use Dom. Cons.

0

0

0

0

0

0

Feed Waste Dom. Cons.

7100

7100

6850

6800

7550

7200

Total Dom. Cons.

7100

7100

6850

6800

7550

7200

Ending Stocks

150

156

151

146

169

136

Total Distribution

7552

7558

7201

7156

7919

7556

(1000 MT) ,(PERCENT)

Oil, Sunflowerseed

2014/2015

2015/2016

2016/2017

Market Begin Year

Oct 2014

Oct 2015

Oct 2016

European Union

USDA Official

New Post

USDA Official

New Post

USDA Official

New Post

Crush

7650

7650

7000

7000

7400

7400

Extr. Rate, 999.9999

0.4225

0.4248

0.4226

0.42

0.4226

0.4216

Beginning Stocks

289

289

225

243

193

183

Production

3232

3250

2958

2940

3127

3120

MY Imports

823

823

1150

1080

1300

1120

MY Imp. from U.S.

0

0

0

0

0

0

Total Supply

4344

4362

4333

4263

4620

4423

MY Exports

419

419

350

330

350

370

Industrial Dom. Cons.

240

240

230

230

230

230

Food Use Dom. Cons.

3450

3450

3550

3510

3850

3620

Feed Waste Dom. Cons.

10

10

10

10

10

10

Total Dom. Cons.

3700

3700

3790

3750

4090

3860

Ending Stocks

225

243

193

183

180

193

Total Distribution

4344

4362

4333

4263

4620

4423

(1000 MT) ,(PERCENT)

Sunflower Seeds MY 2016\17

Major producing countries of sunflower seeds in the EU-28 increased planted area in the current season with highest growth in Spain and Hungary, followed by Romania and Bulgaria. The leading producer France, however, reported a substantial decline in planted area due to adverse weather. This results in less than one percent higher total planted area for the EU-28.

Main producers (Hungary, Romania, Bulgaria) have benefitted from favorable spring weather with moderate temperatures and sufficient rainfall which promised an excellent crop, although current summer dryness in Central and Eastern Europe may moderate these expectations. France reported a mixed picture with negative effects on the crop caused by the rainy and cool weather (fungal diseases, slugs attacks) and any bird attacks. Areas under high oleic and confectionary sunflower are reported to decline slightly.

At present, average EU-28 yields are projected to be 8-10 percent higher than in MY 2015/16 and to lead to 11 percent annual growth in the sunflower seeds production reaching 8.5 MMT but still below the record crop in MY 2014/15.

Expected recovery of the EU-28 production, although uneven between member states, is projected to reduce the overall import demand. On the other hand, forecasted record world supply (Ukraine, Russia, Moldova, Argentina) is likely to offer more competitive options for EU crushers. Thus, we project about 20 percent reduction in imports. Exports to the third countries are estimated to be stable or slightly lower, discouraged by good domestic demand.

The most significant change is projected for the crush demand which is expected to increase by 6 percent (0.4 MMT) to 7.4 MMT. Crush margins are forecast to be lower on average compared to the previous marketing years but to improve gradually throughout the upcoming season, stimulated by improved demand both for sunflower meal and oil. All EU-28 member states expect flat or growing crush volumes (exception is Italy) with the most significant upward changes for France, Spain and Romania, followed by Hungary and Bulgaria.

The EU-28 domestic demand for sunflower oil is expected to be very favorable, conservatively estimated at 3 percent higher consumption, and at the highest level for the last three seasons. The demand for sunflower meal is also likely to improve due to expected better competitiveness of the sunflower meal compared to competing rapeseed and soybean meals, and projected abundant Black Sea supply.

Higher total sunflower seeds supply may provide room for rebuilding stocks although the rebounding consumption may limit accumulation of stocks which are expected to remain below the levels in MY 2014/15.

MY 2015/16

Imports were revised upward due to new shipments from Argentina, Moldova and Russia in the spring of 2016, thus imports to date (October 2015- April 2016/World Trade Atlas) totaled 265,000 MT. Imports are forecast to grow slowly later in the season in order to compensate for lower domestic supply. On the other hand, further growth in imports may be prevented due to expected lower crush in the EU-28 compared to MY2014/15 as a result of falling crush margins and competition from soybeans. Some countries have revised downward their earlier estimates for crush (Spain, Romania, Italy, Germany) while Portugal and Hungary see small increases. In select countries, exports became a more profitable option than crush. Ending stocks and stocks to use ratio are likely to remain low.

Sunflower Meal MY 2016/17

EU-28 sunflower meal output is forecast to increase by 6 percent in line with higher crush. Despite better domestic availability, imports are projected to grow compared to the current year in order to meet the rising demand which is estimated to rebound due to price attractiveness of sunflower meal. Good and competitive regional supply is also likely to stimulate imports. France, Spain, Germany, Hungary and Romania expect higher use of sunflower meal compared to M Y2015/16 while other member states expect use to be flat. Sunflower meal exports are forecast to increase slightly due to better supply in the EU-28.

MY 2015/16

Imports of sunflower meal during October 2015 through April 2016 (Global Trade Atlas) were at 2.0 MMT or only 5 percent lower compared to the corresponding period in MY 2014/15, with the main suppliers Ukraine and Russia. Argentina, the third major supplier, shipped much higher volumes of sunflower meal to the EU-28 in 2016 (January - April), more than double compared to the previous season. We currently estimate annual imports to be stable compared to the previous year, although sunflower price attractiveness in the second half of the season (especially versus soybean meal) along with still good supply from major exporters may result in more purchases.

We estimate a reduced meal use at about 4.0 percent due to lower total supply. Sunflower meal exports during October 2015 through April 2016 decreased by more than 30 percent compared to the corresponding period in MY 2014/15. Thus annual exports are likely to be much lower than in the previous season.

Sunflower Oil

MY 2016\17

The output of sunflower oil is expected to grow by 6 percent due to higher crush. Higher oil production is estimated in France, Romania, Spain, Hungary, Germany and Portugal. Local demand for food use is projected to be supportive as a result of shortage of rapeseed oil and may stimulate more imports despite better domestic supply. In addition, Black Sea region expects record high and price competitive supplies which will make imports attractive. Spain, Germany, Hungary, United Kingdom, Romania and Portugal expect higher food use of sunflower oil compared to MY 2015/16. Exports of oil are forecast to increase by 12 percent due to better supply in the EU-28.

MY 2015/16

Sunflower oil output is forecast to decline by 10 percent versus MY 2014/15 due to lower crush. Spain, Romania, Italy, and Germany have revised previous oil output estimates downward.

Food consumption showed uneven trends. Some countries (France and Portugal) revised their consumption upward, although this was more than offset by declines in other countries (Spain, Hungary, Italy, Germany and United Kingdom) where food use was revised down. This brings total food use for the EU-28 to 1.7 percent more than in MY2015/16. Expectations for imports are for a 30 percent growth compared to MY 2014/15 to compensate for lower production. Leading importers are France and Spain. Imports to date are sourced from Ukraine. In 2016 (January – April / GTA), Ukraine's deliveries to the EU-28 have doubled and accounted for 94 percent of all imports. Currently, MY 2015/16 imports are estimated at 1.1 MMT with 730,000 MT imported between October 2015 and April 2016. Exports are expected to decline due to lower domestic supply.