Highlights

Assuming normal growing conditions through September, soybean production in marketing year (MY) 2016/17 (Oct-Sept) is estimated at 11.5 million metric tons (MMT). The most recent planting report from the Ministry of Agriculture (MinAg) indicates that soybeans were planted on 11.3 million hectares; future MinAg reports will likely reflect an increase in the area planted. Due to a return to the normal monsoon rainfall, soybean yields are expected to increase to the 5-year average. The estimated soybean oil imports in MY 2015/16 are raised to 4.3 MMT, which is the highest in the last decade. On the contrary, oilmeal exports are estimated at a historic low of 450,000 metric tons.

2016 Kharif Oilseed Planting 8 Percent above Last Year

The kharif (fall harvest) soybean, peanut, and sunflower crops were planted on 15.8 million hectares, which is seven percent above last year. Normal to above-normal rainfall during peak planting through mid-July encouraged farmers to plant additional hectares of oilseeds, particularly peanuts and soybeans.

Compared to last year, soybean planting in Madhya Pradesh (MP) declined five percent, with farmers shifting some cultivable area from soybeans to corn, paddy, and lentils. In Maharashtra (MH), farmers shifted some cotton area to soybeans, increasing the area planted for soybeans by 4.2 percent. On average, these states contribute 54 and 32 percent of total soybean production respectively. In addition, several states reported new soybean plantings: Gujarat, Telangana, Karnataka and, to a lesser extent, Uttar Pradesh and Uttarakhand.

India received normal rainfall during the first two months of the 2016 southwest monsoon season (June- September). However, on August 1, the Indian Meteorological Department forecast rainfall to be 107 percent above the long period average for the second half (August and September) of the monsoon season. In past, the yield and quality of soybeans were adversely affected by abnormal weather conditions (e.g., sporadic, heavy and untimely rains, little or poor sunshine during critical growth stages, and poor drainage). This was particularly true when soybeans were in reproductive and advanced stages of maturity and the increased incidence of pests, diseases, and weeds decreased the productive recovery of soybeans.

India received normal rainfall during the first two months of the 2016 southwest monsoon season (June- September). However, on August 1, the Indian Meteorological Department forecast rainfall to be 107 percent above the long period average for the second half (August and September) of the monsoon season. In past, the yield and quality of soybeans were adversely affected by abnormal weather conditions (e.g., sporadic, heavy and untimely rains, little or poor sunshine during critical growth stages, and poor drainage). This was particularly true when soybeans were in reproductive and advanced stages of maturity and the increased incidence of pests, diseases, and weeds decreased the productive recovery of soybeans.

The MY 2016/17 forecast for peanut area and production is increased to 5 million hectares and 5.8 MMT respectively. This revision reflects higher than anticipated kharif season plantings in Gujarat (which contributes 40 percent of total kharif peanut production), Andhra Pradesh, and Maharashtra. Kharif peanut planting at 4.3 million hectares, thirty two percent above last season. The summer planting is assumed to follow the 5-year average.

Similarly, the area planted peanut area for MY 2015/16 is increased to 4.3 million hectares. However, the production is decreased to 4.6 MMT due to dry conditions from prior poor monsoon seasons.

Similarly, assuming normal growing conditions during the 2016 rabi (winter-sown) season, the MY 2016/17 forecast for total sunflower area and production are decreased to 385,000 hectares and 335,000 metric tons respectively. The latest planting report indicates that the kharif sunflower crop was planted on 141,000 hectares compared to 75,000 hectares planted last season. Interestingly, in last decade, sunflower crop has lost more than a million hectares of cultivable land, presumably to other, more remunerative crops. The annual decline in production is estimated at 13 percent.

Refined Palm and Crude Soybean Oil Are Bulk of Imports

India will import 15.3 MMT of edible oils in MY 2015/16, 10 percent above last year. Refined palm and crude soybean oil remain the bulk of imports, with reduced import of other edible oils compared to last year. Importers preferred to stock refined palm oil due to narrowing price differences between crude and refined palm oil. Based on the latest import trend, the projection for MY 2015/16 palm oil imports are reduced to 9.1 MMT. Conversely, soybean oil imports are projected to 4.3 MMT, which is the highest in last decade. Factors contributing to increased imports include a relatively stable exchange rate, attractive international prices and lower availability of oilseeds for crushing.

It is notable that these increased imports continued amidst the GOI's September 17, 2015 action to increase the import duty on both crude and refined edible oils by five percent to the current 12.5 percent and 20 percent respectively. The projection for MY 2016/17 edible oil imports is marginally raised to 15.6 MMT to reflect latest estimates.

Indian Oilmeal Exports at Historic Lows

Cheaper imports of edible oils and strong prices of oilseeds (short-supply) provided no or very little incentive for oilseed millers to crush oilseeds for meal. MY 2015/16 oilmeal exports (which exclude rice bran and castor meal) are revised lower to a historic-low of 450,000 metric tons. Although average export (FOB) prices of Indian oilmeals have tapered since October 2015, Indian meals are still out- priced in the international market. Traditional buyers of Indian meal switched to cheaper supplies from prominent sources.

The oilmeal export basket for MY 2015/16 will include 160,000 metric tons of soymeal and 240,000 metric tons of rapeseed meal and 'other' meals. Further, the capacity utilization for oilseed millers is at the lowest in the past three years, causing many crushing plants to close.

Assuming normal market conditions, the MY 2016/17 oilmeal export forecast remain unchanged at 2.6 MMT. However, the future direction of export sales will depend on competitiveness of Indian oilmeals in the international markets and local demand from the growing poultry sector.

India: Commodity, Oilseed, Soybean, PSD

Oilseed, Soybean

2014/2015

2015/2016

2016/2017

Market Begin Year

Oct 2014

Oct 2015

Oct 2016

India

USDA

Official

New Post

USDA

Official

New Post

USDA

Official

New Post

Area Planted

11000

10908

11650

11610

11700

11300

Area Harvested

11086

10908

11399

11610

11700

11300

Beginning Stocks

789

789

797

765

106

502

Production

8711

8700

7000

7000

11400

11500

MY Imports

11

11

30

12

20

15

MY Imp. from U.S.

0

0

0

12

0

0

MY Imp. from EU

0

0

0

0

0

0

Total Supply

9511

9500

7827

7777

11526

12017

MY Exports

234

235

150

100

250

200

MY Exp. to EU

25

20

30

25

25

25

Crush

6800

6600

5871

5400

8800

8500

Food Use Dom. Cons.

630

650

640

575

650

650

Feed Waste Dom. Cons.

1050

1250

1060

1200

1100

1300

Total Dom. Cons.

8480

8500

7571

7175

10550

10450

Ending Stocks

797

765

106

502

726

1367

Total Distribution

9511

9500

7827

7777

11526

12017

(1000 HA) ,(1000 MT)

India: Commodity, Meal, Soybean, PSD

Meal, Soybean

2014/2015

2015/2016

2016/2017

Market Begin Year

Oct 2014

Oct 2015

Oct 2016

India

USDA

Official

New Post

USDA

Official

New Post

USDA

Official

New Post

Crush

6800

6600

5871

5400

8800

8500

Extr. Rate, 999.9999

0.8

0.8065

0.8005

0.8

0.8

0.8

Beginning Stocks

592

592

227

575

127

485

Production

5440

5323

4700

4320

7040

6800

MY Imports

7

0

10

0

0

0

MY Imp. from U.S.

0

0

0

0

0

0

MY Imp. from EU

0

0

0

0

0

0

Total Supply

6039

5915

4937

4895

7167

7285

MY Exports

1072

1140

110

160

1700

2000

MY Exp. to EU

0

0

0

0

0

0

Industrial Dom. Cons.

0

0

0

0

0

0

Food Use Dom. Cons.

240

500

240

450

270

650

Feed Waste Dom. Cons.

4500

3700

4460

3800

4800

4400

Total Dom. Cons.

4740

4200

4700

4250

5070

5050

Ending Stocks

227

575

127

485

397

235

Total Distribution

6039

5915

4937

4895

7167

7285

(1000 MT) ,(PERCENT)

India: Commodity, Oil, Soybean PSD

Oil, Soybean

2014/2015

2015/2016

2016/2017

Market Begin Year

Oct 2014

Oct 2015

Oct 2016

India

USDA

Official

New Post

USDA

Official

New Post

USDA

Official

New Post

Crush

6800

6600

5871

5400

8800

8500

Extr. Rate, 999.9999

0.1771

0.1758

0.1771

0.1759

0.177

0.1765

Beginning Stocks

246

246

199

206

344

656

Production

1204

1160

1040

950

1558

1500

MY Imports

2799

2800

4000

4300

3300

3400

MY Imp. from U.S.

2

2

0

0

0

0

MY Imp. from EU

0

0

0

0

0

0

Total Supply

4249

4206

5239

5456

5202

5556

MY Exports

0

0

3

0

0

10

MY Exp. to EU

0

0

0

0

0

0

Industrial Dom. Cons.

0

0

0

0

0

0

Food Use Dom.

4050

4000

4892

4800

4900

5200

Cons.

Feed Waste Dom. Cons.

0

0

0

0

0

0

Total Dom. Cons.

4050

4000

4892

4800

4900

5200

Ending Stocks

199

206

344

656

302

346

Total Distribution

4249

4206

5239

5456

5202

5556

(1000 MT) ,(PERCENT)

Commodity, Oilseed, Peanut PSD

Oilseed, Peanut

2014/2015

2015/2016

2016/2017

Market Begin Year

Oct 2014

Oct 2015

Oct 2016

India

USDA

Official

New Post

USDA

Official

New Post

USDA

Official

New Post

Area Planted

4600

4560

4500

4300

4000

5000

Area Harvested

4743

4560

4560

4300

4800

5000

Beginning Stocks

903

903

318

709

178

494

Production

4855

5200

4470

4600

5000

5800

MY Imports

0

1

0

0

0

0

MY Imp. from U.S.

0

0

0

0

0

0

MY Imp. from EU

0

0

0

0

0

0

Total Supply

5758

6104

4788

5309

5178

6294

MY Exports

870

645

680

575

850

750

MY Exp. to EU

20

20

20

20

20

30

Crush

3400

3050

2700

2600

2900

3200

Food Use Dom. Cons.

790

1200

790

1200

850

1400

Feed Waste Dom. Cons.

380

500

440

440

400

500

Total Dom. Cons.

4570

4750

3930

4240

4150

5100

Ending Stocks

318

709

178

494

178

444

Total Distribution

5758

6104

4788

5309

5178

6294

(1000 HA) ,(1000 MT)

Commodity, Meal, Peanut, PSD

Meal, Peanut

2014/2015

2015/2016

2016/2017

Market Begin Year

Oct 2014

Oct 2015

Oct 2016

India

USDA

Official

New Post

USDA

Official

New Post

USDA

Official

New Post

Crush

3400

3050

2700

2600

2900

3200

Extr. Rate, 999.9999

0.4

0.4

0.4

0.4

0.4

0.4

Beginning Stocks

0

0

0

0

0

0

Production

1360

1220

1080

1040

1160

1280

MY Imports

0

0

0

0

0

0

MY Imp. from U.S.

0

0

0

0

0

0

MY Imp. from EU

0

0

0

0

0

0

Total Supply

1360

1220

1080

1040

1160

1280

MY Exports

8

3

8

2

8

2

MY Exp. to EU

0

0

0

0

0

0

Industrial Dom. Cons.

0

0

0

0

0

0

Food Use Dom. Cons.

5

10

5

5

5

10

Feed Waste Dom. Cons.

1347

1207

1067

1033

1147

1268

Total Dom. Cons.

1352

1217

1072

1038

1152

1278

Ending Stocks

0

0

0

0

0

0

Total Distribution

1360

1220

1080

1040

1160

1280

(1000 MT) ,(PERCENT)

Commodity, Oil, Peanut PSD

Oil, Peanut

2014/2015

2015/2016

2016/2017

Market Begin Year

Oct 2014

Oct 2015

Oct 2016

India

USDA

Official

New Post

USDA

Official

New Post

USDA

Official

New Post

Crush

3400

3050

2700

2600

2900

3200

Extr. Rate, 999.9999

0.34

0.34

0.34

0.34

0.34

0.3406

Beginning Stocks

30

30

29

37

27

10

Production

1156

1037

918

884

986

1090

MY Imports

0

0

0

0

0

0

MY Imp. from U.S.

0

0

0

0

0

0

MY Imp. from EU

0

0

0

0

0

0

Total Supply

1186

1067

947

921

1013

1100

MY Exports

15

15

20

11

20

15

MY Exp. to EU

0

0

0

0

0

0

Industrial Dom. Cons.

10

15

10

10

10

10

Food Use Dom. Cons.

1132

1000

890

890

950

1050

Feed Waste Dom. Cons.

0

0

0

0

0

0

Total Dom. Cons.

1142

1015

900

900

960

1060

Ending Stocks

29

37

27

10

33

25

Total Distribution

1186

1067

947

921

1013

1100

(1000 MT) ,(PERCENT)

India: Commodity, Oilseed, Sunflower Seed PSD

Oilseed, Sunflowerseed

2014/2015

2015/2016

2016/2017

Market Begin Year

Oct 2014

Oct 2015

Oct 2016

India

USDA

Official

New Post

USDA

Official

New Post

USDA

Official

New Post

Area Planted

550

525

550

446

400

385

Area Harvested

584

525

550

446

400

385

Beginning Stocks

0

0

0

0

0

0

Production

383

435

320

390

350

335

MY Imports

1

0

0

0

0

0

MY Imp. from U.S.

0

0

0

0

0

0

MY Imp. from EU

0

0

0

0

0

0

Total Supply

384

435

320

390

350

335

MY Exports

6

0

4

0

4

0

MY Exp. to EU

0

0

0

0

0

0

Crush

323

380

270

340

300

300

Food Use Dom. Cons.

0

0

0

0

0

0

Feed Waste Dom. Cons.

55

55

46

50

46

35

Total Dom. Cons.

378

435

316

390

346

335

Ending Stocks

0

0

0

0

0

0

Total Distribution

384

435

320

390

350

335

(1000 HA) ,(1000 MT)

India: Commodity, Meal, Sunflower seed PSD

Meal, Sunflowerseed

2014/2015

2015/2016

2016/2017

Market Begin Year

Oct 2014

Oct 2015

Oct 2016

India

USDA

Official

New Post

USDA

Official

New Post

USDA

Official

New Post

Crush

323

380

270

340

300

300

Extr. Rate, 999.9999

0.4799

0.4789

0.4815

0.4794

0.48

0.48

Beginning Stocks

0

0

0

0

0

0

Production

155

182

130

163

144

144

MY Imports

32

0

80

0

40

0

MY Imp. from U.S.

0

0

0

0

0

0

MY Imp. from EU

0

0

0

0

0

0

Total Supply

187

182

210

163

184

144

MY Exports

4

0

5

0

5

0

MY Exp. to EU

0

0

0

0

0

0

Industrial Dom. Cons.

0

0

0

0

0

0

Food Use Dom. Cons.

0

0

0

0

0

0

Feed Waste Dom. Cons.

183

182

205

163

179

144

Total Dom. Cons.

183

182

205

163

179

144

Ending Stocks

0

0

0

0

0

0

Total Distribution

187

182

210

163

184

144

(1000 MT) ,(PERCENT)

India: Commodity, Oil, Sunflower PSD

Oil, Sunflowerseed

2014/2015

2015/2016

2016/2017

Market Begin Year

Oct 2014

Oct 2015

Oct 2016

India

USDA

Official

New Post

USDA

Official

New Post

USDA

Official

New Post

Crush

323

380

270

340

300

300

Extr. Rate, 999.9999

0.3622

0.3553

0.363

0.35

0.36

0.35

Beginning Stocks

305

305

249

170

144

219

Production

117

135

98

119

108

105

MY Imports

1531

1530

1550

1530

1800

1800

MY Imp. from U.S.

0

0

0

0

0

0

MY Imp. from EU

0

0

0

0

0

0

Total Supply

1953

1970

1897

1819

2052

2124

MY Exports

4

0

3

0

0

0

MY Exp. to EU

0

0

0

0

0

0

Industrial Dom. Cons.

0

0

0

0

0

0

Food Use Dom. Cons.

1700

1800

1750

1600

1920

1900

Feed Waste Dom. Cons.

0

0

0

0

0

0

Total Dom. Cons.

1700

1800

1750

1600

1920

1900

Ending Stocks

249

170

144

219

132

224

Total Distribution

1953

1970

1897

1819

2052

2124

(1000 MT) ,(PERCENT)

India:Commodity, Oil,Palm PSD

Oil, Palm

2014/2015

2015/2016

2016/2017

Market Begin Year

Oct 2014

Oct 2015

Oct 2016

India

USDA

Official

New Post

USDA

Official

New Post

USDA

Official

New Post

Area Planted

0

0

0

0

0

0

Area Harvested

80

0

80

0

80

0

Trees

0

0

0

0

0

0

Beginning Stocks

460

460

646

627

446

377

Production

180

180

200

200

200

220

MY Imports

9256

9287

9250

9150

10250

9800

MY Imp. from U.S.

0

0

0

0

0

0

MY Imp. from EU

0

0

0

0

0

0

Total Supply

9896

9927

10096

9977

10896

10397

MY Exports

0

0

0

0

0

0

MY Exp. to EU

0

0

0

0

0

0

Industrial Dom. Cons.

500

500

600

600

700

700

Food Use Dom. Cons.

8750

8800

9050

9000

9800

9300

Feed Waste Dom. Cons.

0

0

0

0

0

0

Total Dom. Cons.

9250

9300

9650

9600

10500

10000

Ending Stocks

646

627

446

377

396

397

Total Distribution

9896

9927

10096

9977

10896

10397

(1000 HA) ,(1000 TREES) ,(1000 MT)