Ukraine. Oilseeds and Products Update / News / AgroChart

Highlights

Sunflowerseed area has expanded again leading to a larger crop. Soybean area remains stable while rapeseed area has shrunk. Higher volumes of production would favor exports of oilseeds and products of processing thereof out of Ukraine. Growth of palm oil imports could reinforce this trend by substituting demand for sunflowerseed and soybean oils for domestic food consumption.

In accordance to The State Statistics Service of Ukraine (SSSU) report regarding production areas under major oilseeds:

Sunflowerseed production area has been increased up to 5.9 million hectares (mln ha), which is closer to estimates made by representatives of the oilseed industry. This number is higher compared to the figure published in the initial planting report by the Ministry of Agricultural Policy and Food of Ukraine (MAPFU);
Soybean production area stays at the level of 1.8 mln ha in line with the initial assessment by MAPFU;
Rapeseed production area has been decreased down to 456 thousand ha, below the initial assessment by MAPFU. This adjustment could be attributed to accommodation high winterkill rates.

Ukraine has already started harvesting rapeseed. Farmers have already harvested 384 thousand ha of this crop, producing around 1 million metric tons (MMT) of rapeseed as of July 28, 2016. The average yield in 2016 is 2.63 metric tons (MT) per ha, which is almost 4 percent higher against 2015.

Predominantly favorable weather conditions. FAS Kyiv Post has slightly increased projected yield estimates for sunflowerseed and soybeans. This increase has been made under the assumption that Ukraine would not experience prolonged heat waves during August that could quickly deplete the soil moisture.

Consumption:

Soybean feed consumption has been decreased for MY2015/16 with subsequent stabilization for MY2016/17. This adjustment has been made based on 3-4 percent decrease of animal numbers for January-July 2016 compared to the same period of 2015 reported by SSSU.

Both soybean meal and sunflower meal consumption has been decreased for MY2015/16 with subsequent stabilization for MY2016/17. This adjustment has been made based on 10 percent decrease of poultry numbers in industrial enterprises, which are the main consumers of such feed ingredients, for January-July 2016 compared to the same period of 2015 reported by SSSU.

Food use for sunflower and soybean oils decreased for MY2015/16 with subsequent stabilization for MY2016/17. This adjustment resulted from the hike of imports of palm oil to Ukraine for MY2015/16.

Trade:

Ukraine has already imported 74.4 thousand MT of palm oil in January-May 2016 -- 85.6 percent higher compared to the same period of 2015. This might be the beginning of the trend for the next couple of years. The rise of palm oil consumption as well as subsequent imports could be stemming from the food industry's interest to keep production costs down. Ukraine is currently experience shrinking incomes of domestic consumers.

This surge of imports of palm oil translated into higher import estimates for MY2015/16 and MY2016/17, as well as decreased food use for sunflower and soybean oils, which are more expensive substitutes for the food industry.

Export volumes of sunflowerseed, rapeseed, soybeans and products of processing thereof for MY2015/16 have been slightly adjusted based on the latest export figures available at the end of this report.

Production, Supply and Demand Data Statistics:

Production of rapeseed for MY2015/16 reflected in PSD tables has been increased up to 1810 thousand MT versus 1737 thousand MT officially reported by the SSSU. This adjustment has been made to accommodate the official rapeseed oil production figures as well as exported volumes of rapeseed for MY2015/16.

Sunflowerseed

Oilseed, Sunflowerseed Market Begin Year Ukraine	2014/2015		2014/2015		2014/2015
	Sep 2015		Sep 2015		Sep 2015
	USDA Official	New Post	USDA Official	New Post	USDA Official	New Post
Area Planted	0	5257	0	5156	0	5904
Area Harvested	5300	5212	5247	5156	6000	5900
Beginning Stocks	412	412	122	102	105	59
Production	10200	10200	11288	11165	13000	12779
MY Imports	15	15	25	22	15	15
MY Imp. from U.S.	5	4	5	7	5	6
MY Imp. from EU	0	4	0	5	0	4
Total Supply	10627	10627	11435	11289	13120	12853
MY Exports	45	45	70	80	100	50
MY Exp. to EU	40	31	20	51	50	30
Crush	10300	10320	11100	11000	12700	12600
Food Use Dom. Cons.	50	50	50	50	50	50
Feed Waste Dom. Cons.	110	110	110	100	110	100
Total Dom. Cons.	10460	10480	11260	11150	12860	12750
Ending Stocks	122	102	105	59	160	53
Total Distribution	10627	10627	11435	11289	13120	12853

(1000 HA) ,(1000 MT)

Oil, Sunflowerseed Market Begin Year Ukraine	2014/2015		2015/2016		2016/2017
	Sep 2014		Sep 2015		Sep 2016
	USDA Official	New Post	USDA Official	New Post	USDA Official	New Post
Crush	10300	10320	11100	11000	12700	12600
Extr. Rate, 999.9999	0.423	0.42	0.423	0.42	0.423	0.42
Beginning Stocks	96	96	77	54	64	96
Production	4357	4334	4695	4620	5372	5292
MY Imports	2	2	2	2	2	2
MY Imp. from U.S.	0	0	0	0	0	0
MY Imp. from EU	0	0	0	0	0	0
Total Supply	4455	4432	4774	4676	5438	5390
MY Exports	3868	3868	4200	4100	4800	4800
MY Exp. to EU	450	587	450	1500	450	1700
Industrial Dom. Cons.	30	30	30	30	30	30
Food Use Dom. Cons.	480	480	480	450	490	450
Feed Waste Dom. Cons.	0	0	0	0	0	0
Total Dom. Cons.	510	510	510	480	520	480
Ending Stocks	77	54	64	96	118	110
Total Distribution	4455	4432	4774	4676	5438	5390

(1000 MT) ,(PERCENT)

Meal, Sunflowerseed Market Begin Year Ukraine	2014/2015		2015/2016		2016/2017
	Sep 2014		Sep 2015		May 2016
	USDA Official	New Post	USDA Official	New Post	USDA Official	New Post
Crush	10300	10320	11100	11000	12700	12600
Extr. Rate, 999.9999	0.4181	0.414	0.418	0.414	0.4181	0.414
Beginning Stocks	405	405	597	563	428	218
Production	4306	4272	4640	4554	5310	5216
MY Imports	0	0	1	1	0	0
MY Imp. from U.S.	0	0	0	0	0	0
MY Imp. from EU	0	0	0	0	0	0
Total Supply	4711	4677	5238	5118	5738	5434
MY Exports	3394	3394	4100	4200	4500	4500
MY Exp. to EU	2121	2121	2200	2400	2500	2200
Industrial Dom. Cons.	0	0	0	0	0	0
Food Use Dom. Cons.	0	0	0	0	0	0
Feed Waste Dom. Cons.	720	720	710	700	730	700
Total Dom. Cons.	720	720	710	700	730	700
Ending Stocks	597	563	428	218	508	234
Total Distribution	4711	4677	5238	5118	5738	5434

(1000 MT) ,(PERCENT)Soybean

Soybean

Oilseed, Soybean Market Begin Year Ukraine	2014/2015		2015/2016		2016/2017
	Sep 2014		Sep 2015		Sep 2016
	USDA Official	New Post	USDA Official	New Post	USDA Official	New Post
Area Planted	1800	1806	2140	2147	2300	1846
Area Harvested	1800	1793	2137	2123	2000	1840
Beginning Stocks	265	265	176	152	235	203
Production	3900	3882	3932	3918	4300	3993
MY Imports	4	4	3	4	0	4
MY Imp. from U.S.	0	0	0	0	0	0
MY Imp. from EU	0	0	0	0	0	0
Total Supply	4169	4151	4111	4074	4535	4200
MY Exports	2422	2422	2200	2300	2600	2300
MY Exp. to EU	850	527	800	350	900	500
Crush	870	876	950	900	1000	1000
Food Use Dom. Cons.	1	1	1	1	1	1
Feed Waste Dom. Cons.	700	700	725	670	750	670
Total Dom. Cons.	1571	1577	1676	1571	1751	1671
Ending Stocks	176	152	235	203	184	229
Total Distribution	4169	4151	4111	4074	4535	4200

(1000 HA) ,(1000 MT)

Oil, Soybean Market Begin Year Ukraine	2014/2015		2015/2016		2016/2017
	Sep 2014		Sep 2015		Sep 2016
	USDA Official	New Post	USDA Official	New Post	USDA Official	New Post
Crush	870	876	950	900	1000	1000
Extr. Rate, 999.9999	0.1851	0.1826	0.1853	0.1822	0.185	0.183
Beginning Stocks	0	0	15	14	16	15
Production	161	160	176	164	185	183
MY Imports	0	0	0	0	0	0
MY Imp. from U.S.	0	0	0	0	0	0
MY Imp. from EU	0	0	0	0	0	0
Total Supply	161	160	191	178	201	198
MY Exports	136	136	160	155	170	175
MY Exp. to EU	65	60	65	75	80	90
Industrial Dom. Cons.	0	0	0	0	0	0
Food Use Dom. Cons.	10	10	15	8	15	8
Feed Waste Dom. Cons.	0	0	0	0	0	0
Total Dom. Cons.	10	10	15	8	15	8
Ending Stocks	15	14	16	15	16	15
Total Distribution	161	160	191	178	201	198

(1000 MT) ,(PERCENT)

Meal, Soybean Market Begin Year Ukraine	2014/2015		2015/2016		2016/2017
	Sep 2014		Sep 2015		Sep 2016
	USDA Official	New Post	USDA Official	New Post	USDA Official	New Post
Crush	870	876	950	900	1000	1000
Extr. Rate, 999.9999	0.7908	0.79	0.7905	0.79	0.79	0.784
Beginning Stocks	32	32	56	43	39	40
Production	688	692	751	711	790	784
MY Imports	2	2	2	1	2	2
MY Imp. from U.S.	0	0	0	0	0	0
MY Imp. from EU	0	0	0	0	0	0
Total Supply	722	726	809	755	831	826
MY Exports	216	213	300	255	300	300
MY Exp. to EU	0	15	0	29	0	30
Industrial Dom. Cons.	0	0	0	0	0	0
Food Use Dom. Cons.	0	0	0	0	0	0
Feed Waste Dom. Cons.	450	470	470	460	490	460
Total Dom. Cons.	450	470	470	460	490	460
Ending Stocks	56	43	39	40	41	66
Total Distribution	722	726	809	755	831	826

(1000 MT) ,(PERCENT)

Rapeseed

Oilseed, Rapeseed Market Begin Year Ukraine	2014/2015		2015/2016		2016/2017
	Jul 2014		Jul 2015		Jul 2016
	USDA Official	New Post	USDA Official	New Post	USDA Official	New Post
Area Planted	882	882	684	682	640	456
Area Harvested	880	865	677	671	500	440
Beginning Stocks	50	50	18	21	3	17
Production	2200	2198	1744	1810	1300	1157
MY Imports	2	2	2	2	2	2
MY Imp. from U.S.	0	0	0	0	0	0
MY Imp. from EU	0	2	0	2	0	2
Total Supply	2252	2250	1764	1833	1305	1176
MY Exports	1963	1963	1430	1435	1000	800
MY Exp. to EU	1287	1287	1200	1130	900	450
Crush	270	265	330	380	300	350
Food Use Dom. Cons.	0	0	0	0	0	0
Feed Waste Dom. Cons.	1	1	1	1	1	1
Total Dom. Cons.	271	266	331	381	301	351
Ending Stocks	18	21	3	17	4	25
Total Distribution	2252	2250	1764	1833	1305	1176

(1000 HA) ,(1000 MT)

Oil, Rapeseed Market Begin Year Ukraine	2014/2015		2015/2016		2016/2017
	Jul 2014		Jul 2015		Jul 2016
	USDA Official	New Post	USDA Official	New Post	USDA Official	New Post
Crush	270	265	330	380	300	350
Extr. Rate, 999.9999	0.3963	0.3887	0.397	0.3974	0.4	0.3971
Beginning Stocks	39	39	29	23	0	19
Production	107	103	131	151	120	139
MY Imports	1	1	1	1	1	1
MY Imp. from U.S.	0	0	0	0	0	0
MY Imp. from EU	0	0	0	1	0	1
Total Supply	147	143	161	175	121	159
MY Exports	112	112	155	154	110	129
MY Exp. to EU	30	67	30	94	30	80
Industrial Dom. Cons.	1	2	1	1	1	1
Food Use Dom. Cons.	5	6	5	1	5	2
Feed Waste Dom. Cons.	0	0	0	0	0	0
Total Dom. Cons.	6	8	6	2	6	3
Ending Stocks	29	23	0	19	5	27
Total Distribution	147	143	161	175	121	159

(1000 MT) ,(PERCENT)

Meal, Rapeseed Market Begin Year Ukraine	2014/2015		2015/2016		2016/2017
	Jul 2014		Jul 2015		Jul 2016
	USDA Official	New Post	USDA Official	New Post	USDA Official	New Post
Crush	270	265	330	380	300	350
Extr. Rate, 999.9999	0.5815	0.5811	0.5818	0.5816	0.5833	0.5829
Beginning Stocks	0	0	0	0	0	0
Production	157	154	192	221	175	204
MY Imports	0	0	0	0	0	0
MY Imp. from U.S.	0	0	0	0	0	0
MY Imp. from EU	0	0	0	0	0	0
Total Supply	157	154	192	221	175	204
MY Exports	133	133	192	189	150	177
MY Exp. to EU	112	112	110	157	80	150
Industrial Dom. Cons.	0	0	0	0	0	0
Food Use Dom. Cons.	0	0	0	0	0	0
Feed Waste Dom. Cons.	24	21	0	32	25	27
Total Dom. Cons.	24	21	0	32	25	27
Ending Stocks	0	0	0	0	0	0
Total Distribution	157	154	192	221	175	204

(1000 MT) ,(PERCENT)

Palm Oil

Oil, Palm Market Begin Year Ukraine	2014/2015		2015/2016		2016/2017
	Jan 2015		Jan 2016		Jan 2017
	USDA Official	New Post	USDA Official	New Post	USDA Official	New Post
Area Planted	0	0	0	0	0	0
Area Harvested	0	0	0	0	0	0
Trees	0	0	0	0	0	0
Beginning Stocks	31	31	31	24	25	27
Production	0	0	0	0	0	0
MY Imports	136	136	140	230	145	200
MY Imp. from U.S.	0	0	0	0	0	0
MY Imp. from EU	0	0	0	0	0	0
Total Supply	167	167	171	254	170	227
MY Exports	1	1	1	2	1	1
MY Exp. to EU	0	0	0	0	0	0
Industrial Dom. Cons.	5	5	5	5	5	6
Food Use Dom. Cons.	130	137	140	220	145	210
Feed Waste Dom. Cons.	0	0	0	0	0	0
Total Dom. Cons.	135	142	145	225	150	216
Ending Stocks	31	24	25	27	19	10
Total Distribution	167	167	171	254	170	227

(1000 HA) ,(1000 TREES) ,(1000 MT)

Ukraine. Oilseeds and Products Update Aug. 1, 2016