Ukraine. Oilseeds and Products Update Aug. 1, 2016
Highlights
Sunflowerseed area has expanded again leading to a larger crop. Soybean area remains stable while rapeseed area has shrunk. Higher volumes of production would favor exports of oilseeds and products of processing thereof out of Ukraine. Growth of palm oil imports could reinforce this trend by substituting demand for sunflowerseed and soybean oils for domestic food consumption.
In accordance to The State Statistics Service of Ukraine (SSSU) report regarding production areas under major oilseeds:
- Sunflowerseed production area has been increased up to 5.9 million hectares (mln ha), which is closer to estimates made by representatives of the oilseed industry. This number is higher compared to the figure published in the initial planting report by the Ministry of Agricultural Policy and Food of Ukraine (MAPFU);
- Soybean production area stays at the level of 1.8 mln ha in line with the initial assessment by MAPFU;
- Rapeseed production area has been decreased down to 456 thousand ha, below the initial assessment by MAPFU. This adjustment could be attributed to accommodation high winterkill rates.
Ukraine has already started harvesting rapeseed. Farmers have already harvested 384 thousand ha of this crop, producing around 1 million metric tons (MMT) of rapeseed as of July 28, 2016. The average yield in 2016 is 2.63 metric tons (MT) per ha, which is almost 4 percent higher against 2015.
Predominantly favorable weather conditions. FAS Kyiv Post has slightly increased projected yield estimates for sunflowerseed and soybeans. This increase has been made under the assumption that Ukraine would not experience prolonged heat waves during August that could quickly deplete the soil moisture.
Consumption:
Soybean feed consumption has been decreased for MY2015/16 with subsequent stabilization for MY2016/17. This adjustment has been made based on 3-4 percent decrease of animal numbers for January-July 2016 compared to the same period of 2015 reported by SSSU.
Both soybean meal and sunflower meal consumption has been decreased for MY2015/16 with subsequent stabilization for MY2016/17. This adjustment has been made based on 10 percent decrease of poultry numbers in industrial enterprises, which are the main consumers of such feed ingredients, for January-July 2016 compared to the same period of 2015 reported by SSSU.
Food use for sunflower and soybean oils decreased for MY2015/16 with subsequent stabilization for MY2016/17. This adjustment resulted from the hike of imports of palm oil to Ukraine for MY2015/16.
Trade:
Ukraine has already imported 74.4 thousand MT of palm oil in January-May 2016 -- 85.6 percent higher compared to the same period of 2015. This might be the beginning of the trend for the next couple of years. The rise of palm oil consumption as well as subsequent imports could be stemming from the food industry's interest to keep production costs down. Ukraine is currently experience shrinking incomes of domestic consumers.
This surge of imports of palm oil translated into higher import estimates for MY2015/16 and MY2016/17, as well as decreased food use for sunflower and soybean oils, which are more expensive substitutes for the food industry.
Export volumes of sunflowerseed, rapeseed, soybeans and products of processing thereof for MY2015/16 have been slightly adjusted based on the latest export figures available at the end of this report.
Production, Supply and Demand Data Statistics:
Production of rapeseed for MY2015/16 reflected in PSD tables has been increased up to 1810 thousand MT versus 1737 thousand MT officially reported by the SSSU. This adjustment has been made to accommodate the official rapeseed oil production figures as well as exported volumes of rapeseed for MY2015/16.
Sunflowerseed
Oilseed, Sunflowerseed Market Begin Year Ukraine | 2014/2015 | 2014/2015 | 2014/2015 | |||
Sep 2015 | Sep 2015 | Sep 2015 | ||||
USDA Official | New Post | USDA Official | New Post | USDA Official | New Post | |
Area Planted | 0 | 5257 | 0 | 5156 | 0 | 5904 |
Area Harvested | 5300 | 5212 | 5247 | 5156 | 6000 | 5900 |
Beginning Stocks | 412 | 412 | 122 | 102 | 105 | 59 |
Production | 10200 | 10200 | 11288 | 11165 | 13000 | 12779 |
MY Imports | 15 | 15 | 25 | 22 | 15 | 15 |
MY Imp. from U.S. | 5 | 4 | 5 | 7 | 5 | 6 |
MY Imp. from EU | 0 | 4 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 4 |
Total Supply | 10627 | 10627 | 11435 | 11289 | 13120 | 12853 |
MY Exports | 45 | 45 | 70 | 80 | 100 | 50 |
MY Exp. to EU | 40 | 31 | 20 | 51 | 50 | 30 |
Crush | 10300 | 10320 | 11100 | 11000 | 12700 | 12600 |
Food Use Dom. Cons. | 50 | 50 | 50 | 50 | 50 | 50 |
Feed Waste Dom. Cons. | 110 | 110 | 110 | 100 | 110 | 100 |
Total Dom. Cons. | 10460 | 10480 | 11260 | 11150 | 12860 | 12750 |
Ending Stocks | 122 | 102 | 105 | 59 | 160 | 53 |
Total Distribution | 10627 | 10627 | 11435 | 11289 | 13120 | 12853 |
(1000 HA) ,(1000 MT) |
Oil, Sunflowerseed Market Begin Year Ukraine | 2014/2015 | 2015/2016 | 2016/2017 | |||
Sep 2014 | Sep 2015 | Sep 2016 | ||||
USDA Official | New Post | USDA Official | New Post | USDA Official | New Post | |
Crush | 10300 | 10320 | 11100 | 11000 | 12700 | 12600 |
Extr. Rate, 999.9999 | 0.423 | 0.42 | 0.423 | 0.42 | 0.423 | 0.42 |
Beginning Stocks | 96 | 96 | 77 | 54 | 64 | 96 |
Production | 4357 | 4334 | 4695 | 4620 | 5372 | 5292 |
MY Imports | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
MY Imp. from U.S. | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
MY Imp. from EU | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Total Supply | 4455 | 4432 | 4774 | 4676 | 5438 | 5390 |
MY Exports | 3868 | 3868 | 4200 | 4100 | 4800 | 4800 |
MY Exp. to EU | 450 | 587 | 450 | 1500 | 450 | 1700 |
Industrial Dom. Cons. | 30 | 30 | 30 | 30 | 30 | 30 |
Food Use Dom. Cons. | 480 | 480 | 480 | 450 | 490 | 450 |
Feed Waste Dom. Cons. | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Total Dom. Cons. | 510 | 510 | 510 | 480 | 520 | 480 |
Ending Stocks | 77 | 54 | 64 | 96 | 118 | 110 |
Total Distribution | 4455 | 4432 | 4774 | 4676 | 5438 | 5390 |
(1000 MT) ,(PERCENT) |
Meal, Sunflowerseed Market Begin Year Ukraine | 2014/2015 | 2015/2016 | 2016/2017 | |||
Sep 2014 | Sep 2015 | May 2016 | ||||
USDA Official | New Post | USDA Official | New Post | USDA Official | New Post | |
Crush | 10300 | 10320 | 11100 | 11000 | 12700 | 12600 |
Extr. Rate, 999.9999 | 0.4181 | 0.414 | 0.418 | 0.414 | 0.4181 | 0.414 |
Beginning Stocks | 405 | 405 | 597 | 563 | 428 | 218 |
Production | 4306 | 4272 | 4640 | 4554 | 5310 | 5216 |
MY Imports | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
MY Imp. from U.S. | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
MY Imp. from EU | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Total Supply | 4711 | 4677 | 5238 | 5118 | 5738 | 5434 |
MY Exports | 3394 | 3394 | 4100 | 4200 | 4500 | 4500 |
MY Exp. to EU | 2121 | 2121 | 2200 | 2400 | 2500 | 2200 |
Industrial Dom. Cons. | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Food Use Dom. Cons. | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Feed Waste Dom. Cons. | 720 | 720 | 710 | 700 | 730 | 700 |
Total Dom. Cons. | 720 | 720 | 710 | 700 | 730 | 700 |
Ending Stocks | 597 | 563 | 428 | 218 | 508 | 234 |
Total Distribution | 4711 | 4677 | 5238 | 5118 | 5738 | 5434 |
(1000 MT) ,(PERCENT)Soybean |
Soybean
Oilseed, Soybean Market Begin Year Ukraine | 2014/2015 | 2015/2016 | 2016/2017 | |||
Sep 2014 | Sep 2015 | Sep 2016 | ||||
USDA Official | New Post | USDA Official | New Post | USDA Official | New Post | |
Area Planted | 1800 | 1806 | 2140 | 2147 | 2300 | 1846 |
Area Harvested | 1800 | 1793 | 2137 | 2123 | 2000 | 1840 |
Beginning Stocks | 265 | 265 | 176 | 152 | 235 | 203 |
Production | 3900 | 3882 | 3932 | 3918 | 4300 | 3993 |
MY Imports | 4 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 4 |
MY Imp. from U.S. | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
MY Imp. from EU | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Total Supply | 4169 | 4151 | 4111 | 4074 | 4535 | 4200 |
MY Exports | 2422 | 2422 | 2200 | 2300 | 2600 | 2300 |
MY Exp. to EU | 850 | 527 | 800 | 350 | 900 | 500 |
Crush | 870 | 876 | 950 | 900 | 1000 | 1000 |
Food Use Dom. Cons. | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Feed Waste Dom. Cons. | 700 | 700 | 725 | 670 | 750 | 670 |
Total Dom. Cons. | 1571 | 1577 | 1676 | 1571 | 1751 | 1671 |
Ending Stocks | 176 | 152 | 235 | 203 | 184 | 229 |
Total Distribution | 4169 | 4151 | 4111 | 4074 | 4535 | 4200 |
(1000 HA) ,(1000 MT) |
Oil, Soybean Market Begin Year Ukraine | 2014/2015 | 2015/2016 | 2016/2017 | |||
Sep 2014 | Sep 2015 | Sep 2016 | ||||
USDA Official | New Post | USDA Official | New Post | USDA Official | New Post | |
Crush | 870 | 876 | 950 | 900 | 1000 | 1000 |
Extr. Rate, 999.9999 | 0.1851 | 0.1826 | 0.1853 | 0.1822 | 0.185 | 0.183 |
Beginning Stocks | 0 | 0 | 15 | 14 | 16 | 15 |
Production | 161 | 160 | 176 | 164 | 185 | 183 |
MY Imports | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
MY Imp. from U.S. | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
MY Imp. from EU | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Total Supply | 161 | 160 | 191 | 178 | 201 | 198 |
MY Exports | 136 | 136 | 160 | 155 | 170 | 175 |
MY Exp. to EU | 65 | 60 | 65 | 75 | 80 | 90 |
Industrial Dom. Cons. | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Food Use Dom. Cons. | 10 | 10 | 15 | 8 | 15 | 8 |
Feed Waste Dom. Cons. | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Total Dom. Cons. | 10 | 10 | 15 | 8 | 15 | 8 |
Ending Stocks | 15 | 14 | 16 | 15 | 16 | 15 |
Total Distribution | 161 | 160 | 191 | 178 | 201 | 198 |
(1000 MT) ,(PERCENT) |
Meal, Soybean Market Begin Year Ukraine | 2014/2015 | 2015/2016 | 2016/2017 | |||
Sep 2014 | Sep 2015 | Sep 2016 | ||||
USDA Official | New Post | USDA Official | New Post | USDA Official | New Post | |
Crush | 870 | 876 | 950 | 900 | 1000 | 1000 |
Extr. Rate, 999.9999 | 0.7908 | 0.79 | 0.7905 | 0.79 | 0.79 | 0.784 |
Beginning Stocks | 32 | 32 | 56 | 43 | 39 | 40 |
Production | 688 | 692 | 751 | 711 | 790 | 784 |
MY Imports | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 2 |
MY Imp. from U.S. | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
MY Imp. from EU | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Total Supply | 722 | 726 | 809 | 755 | 831 | 826 |
MY Exports | 216 | 213 | 300 | 255 | 300 | 300 |
MY Exp. to EU | 0 | 15 | 0 | 29 | 0 | 30 |
Industrial Dom. Cons. | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Food Use Dom. Cons. | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Feed Waste Dom. Cons. | 450 | 470 | 470 | 460 | 490 | 460 |
Total Dom. Cons. | 450 | 470 | 470 | 460 | 490 | 460 |
Ending Stocks | 56 | 43 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 66 |
Total Distribution | 722 | 726 | 809 | 755 | 831 | 826 |
(1000 MT) ,(PERCENT) |
Rapeseed
Oilseed, Rapeseed Market Begin Year Ukraine | 2014/2015 | 2015/2016 | 2016/2017 | |||
Jul 2014 | Jul 2015 | Jul 2016 | ||||
USDA Official | New Post | USDA Official | New Post | USDA Official | New Post | |
Area Planted | 882 | 882 | 684 | 682 | 640 | 456 |
Area Harvested | 880 | 865 | 677 | 671 | 500 | 440 |
Beginning Stocks | 50 | 50 | 18 | 21 | 3 | 17 |
Production | 2200 | 2198 | 1744 | 1810 | 1300 | 1157 |
MY Imports | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
MY Imp. from U.S. | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
MY Imp. from EU | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 |
Total Supply | 2252 | 2250 | 1764 | 1833 | 1305 | 1176 |
MY Exports | 1963 | 1963 | 1430 | 1435 | 1000 | 800 |
MY Exp. to EU | 1287 | 1287 | 1200 | 1130 | 900 | 450 |
Crush | 270 | 265 | 330 | 380 | 300 | 350 |
Food Use Dom. Cons. | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Feed Waste Dom. Cons. | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Total Dom. Cons. | 271 | 266 | 331 | 381 | 301 | 351 |
Ending Stocks | 18 | 21 | 3 | 17 | 4 | 25 |
Total Distribution | 2252 | 2250 | 1764 | 1833 | 1305 | 1176 |
(1000 HA) ,(1000 MT) |
Oil, Rapeseed Market Begin Year Ukraine | 2014/2015 | 2015/2016 | 2016/2017 | |||
Jul 2014 | Jul 2015 | Jul 2016 | ||||
USDA Official | New Post | USDA Official | New Post | USDA Official | New Post | |
Crush | 270 | 265 | 330 | 380 | 300 | 350 |
Extr. Rate, 999.9999 | 0.3963 | 0.3887 | 0.397 | 0.3974 | 0.4 | 0.3971 |
Beginning Stocks | 39 | 39 | 29 | 23 | 0 | 19 |
Production | 107 | 103 | 131 | 151 | 120 | 139 |
MY Imports | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
MY Imp. from U.S. | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
MY Imp. from EU | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
Total Supply | 147 | 143 | 161 | 175 | 121 | 159 |
MY Exports | 112 | 112 | 155 | 154 | 110 | 129 |
MY Exp. to EU | 30 | 67 | 30 | 94 | 30 | 80 |
Industrial Dom. Cons. | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Food Use Dom. Cons. | 5 | 6 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 2 |
Feed Waste Dom. Cons. | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Total Dom. Cons. | 6 | 8 | 6 | 2 | 6 | 3 |
Ending Stocks | 29 | 23 | 0 | 19 | 5 | 27 |
Total Distribution | 147 | 143 | 161 | 175 | 121 | 159 |
(1000 MT) ,(PERCENT) |
Meal, Rapeseed Market Begin Year Ukraine | 2014/2015 | 2015/2016 | 2016/2017 | |||
Jul 2014 | Jul 2015 | Jul 2016 | ||||
USDA Official | New Post | USDA Official | New Post | USDA Official | New Post | |
Crush | 270 | 265 | 330 | 380 | 300 | 350 |
Extr. Rate, 999.9999 | 0.5815 | 0.5811 | 0.5818 | 0.5816 | 0.5833 | 0.5829 |
Beginning Stocks | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Production | 157 | 154 | 192 | 221 | 175 | 204 |
MY Imports | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
MY Imp. from U.S. | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
MY Imp. from EU | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Total Supply | 157 | 154 | 192 | 221 | 175 | 204 |
MY Exports | 133 | 133 | 192 | 189 | 150 | 177 |
MY Exp. to EU | 112 | 112 | 110 | 157 | 80 | 150 |
Industrial Dom. Cons. | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Food Use Dom. Cons. | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Feed Waste Dom. Cons. | 24 | 21 | 0 | 32 | 25 | 27 |
Total Dom. Cons. | 24 | 21 | 0 | 32 | 25 | 27 |
Ending Stocks | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Total Distribution | 157 | 154 | 192 | 221 | 175 | 204 |
(1000 MT) ,(PERCENT) |
Palm Oil
Oil, Palm Market Begin Year Ukraine | 2014/2015 | 2015/2016 | 2016/2017 | |||
Jan 2015 | Jan 2016 | Jan 2017 | ||||
USDA Official | New Post | USDA Official | New Post | USDA Official | New Post | |
Area Planted | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Area Harvested | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Trees | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Beginning Stocks | 31 | 31 | 31 | 24 | 25 | 27 |
Production | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
MY Imports | 136 | 136 | 140 | 230 | 145 | 200 |
MY Imp. from U.S. | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
MY Imp. from EU | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Total Supply | 167 | 167 | 171 | 254 | 170 | 227 |
MY Exports | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
MY Exp. to EU | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Industrial Dom. Cons. | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 6 |
Food Use Dom. Cons. | 130 | 137 | 140 | 220 | 145 | 210 |
Feed Waste Dom. Cons. | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Total Dom. Cons. | 135 | 142 | 145 | 225 | 150 | 216 |
Ending Stocks | 31 | 24 | 25 | 27 | 19 | 10 |
Total Distribution | 167 | 167 | 171 | 254 | 170 | 227 |
(1000 HA) ,(1000 TREES) ,(1000 MT) |