Highlights

Sunflowerseed area has expanded again leading to a larger crop. Soybean area remains stable while rapeseed area has shrunk. Higher volumes of production would favor exports of oilseeds and products of processing thereof out of Ukraine. Growth of palm oil imports could reinforce this trend by substituting demand for sunflowerseed and soybean oils for domestic food consumption.

In accordance to The State Statistics Service of Ukraine (SSSU) report regarding production areas under major oilseeds:

  • Sunflowerseed production area has been increased up to 5.9 million hectares (mln ha), which is closer to estimates made by representatives of the oilseed industry. This number is higher compared to the figure published in the initial planting report by the Ministry of Agricultural Policy and Food of Ukraine (MAPFU);
  • Soybean production area stays at the level of 1.8 mln ha in line with the initial assessment by MAPFU;
  • Rapeseed production area has been decreased down to 456 thousand ha, below the initial assessment by MAPFU. This adjustment could be attributed to accommodation high winterkill rates.

Ukraine has already started harvesting rapeseed. Farmers have already harvested 384 thousand ha of this crop, producing around 1 million metric tons (MMT) of rapeseed as of July 28, 2016. The average yield in 2016 is 2.63 metric tons (MT) per ha, which is almost 4 percent higher against 2015.

Predominantly favorable weather conditions. FAS Kyiv Post has slightly increased projected yield estimates for sunflowerseed and soybeans. This increase has been made under the assumption that Ukraine would not experience prolonged heat waves during August that could quickly deplete the soil moisture.

Consumption:

Soybean feed consumption has been decreased for MY2015/16 with subsequent stabilization for MY2016/17. This adjustment has been made based on 3-4 percent decrease of animal numbers for January-July 2016 compared to the same period of 2015 reported by SSSU.

Both soybean meal and sunflower meal consumption has been decreased for MY2015/16 with subsequent stabilization for MY2016/17. This adjustment has been made based on 10 percent decrease of poultry numbers in industrial enterprises, which are the main consumers of such feed ingredients, for January-July 2016 compared to the same period of 2015 reported by SSSU.

Food use for sunflower and soybean oils decreased for MY2015/16 with subsequent stabilization for MY2016/17. This adjustment resulted from the hike of imports of palm oil to Ukraine for MY2015/16.

Trade:

Ukraine has already imported 74.4 thousand MT of palm oil in January-May 2016 -- 85.6 percent higher compared to the same period of 2015. This might be the beginning of the trend for the next couple of years. The rise of palm oil consumption as well as subsequent imports could be stemming from the food industry's interest to keep production costs down. Ukraine is currently experience shrinking incomes of domestic consumers.

This surge of imports of palm oil translated into higher import estimates for MY2015/16 and MY2016/17, as well as decreased food use for sunflower and soybean oils, which are more expensive substitutes for the food industry.

Export volumes of sunflowerseed, rapeseed, soybeans and products of processing thereof for MY2015/16 have been slightly adjusted based on the latest export figures available at the end of this report.

Production, Supply and Demand Data Statistics:

Production of rapeseed for MY2015/16 reflected in PSD tables has been increased up to 1810 thousand MT versus 1737 thousand MT officially reported by the SSSU. This adjustment has been made to accommodate the official rapeseed oil production figures as well as exported volumes of rapeseed for MY2015/16.

Sunflowerseed

Oilseed, Sunflowerseed

Market Begin Year

Ukraine

2014/2015

2014/2015

2014/2015

Sep 2015

Sep 2015

Sep 2015

USDA Official

New Post

USDA Official

New Post

USDA Official

New Post

Area Planted

0

5257

0

5156

0

5904

Area Harvested

5300

5212

5247

5156

6000

5900

Beginning Stocks

412

412

122

102

105

59

Production

10200

10200

11288

11165

13000

12779

MY Imports

15

15

25

22

15

15

MY Imp. from U.S.

5

4

5

7

5

6

MY Imp. from EU

0

4

0

5

0

4

Total Supply

10627

10627

11435

11289

13120

12853

MY Exports

45

45

70

80

100

50

MY Exp. to EU

40

31

20

51

50

30

Crush

10300

10320

11100

11000

12700

12600

Food Use Dom. Cons.

50

50

50

50

50

50

Feed Waste Dom. Cons.

110

110

110

100

110

100

Total Dom. Cons.

10460

10480

11260

11150

12860

12750

Ending Stocks

122

102

105

59

160

53

Total Distribution

10627

10627

11435

11289

13120

12853

(1000 HA) ,(1000 MT)

Oil, Sunflowerseed

Market Begin Year

Ukraine

2014/2015

2015/2016

2016/2017

Sep 2014

Sep 2015

Sep 2016

USDA Official

New Post

USDA Official

New Post

USDA Official

New Post

Crush

10300

10320

11100

11000

12700

12600

Extr. Rate, 999.9999

0.423

0.42

0.423

0.42

0.423

0.42

Beginning Stocks

96

96

77

54

64

96

Production

4357

4334

4695

4620

5372

5292

MY Imports

2

2

2

2

2

2

MY Imp. from U.S.

0

0

0

0

0

0

MY Imp. from EU

0

0

0

0

0

0

Total Supply

4455

4432

4774

4676

5438

5390

MY Exports

3868

3868

4200

4100

4800

4800

MY Exp. to EU

450

587

450

1500

450

1700

Industrial Dom. Cons.

30

30

30

30

30

30

Food Use Dom. Cons.

480

480

480

450

490

450

Feed Waste Dom. Cons.

0

0

0

0

0

0

Total Dom. Cons.

510

510

510

480

520

480

Ending Stocks

77

54

64

96

118

110

Total Distribution

4455

4432

4774

4676

5438

5390

(1000 MT) ,(PERCENT)

Meal, Sunflowerseed

Market Begin Year

Ukraine

2014/2015

2015/2016

2016/2017

Sep 2014

Sep 2015

May 2016

USDA Official

New Post

USDA Official

New Post

USDA Official

New Post

Crush

10300

10320

11100

11000

12700

12600

Extr. Rate, 999.9999

0.4181

0.414

0.418

0.414

0.4181

0.414

Beginning Stocks

405

405

597

563

428

218

Production

4306

4272

4640

4554

5310

5216

MY Imports

0

0

1

1

0

0

MY Imp. from U.S.

0

0

0

0

0

0

MY Imp. from EU

0

0

0

0

0

0

Total Supply

4711

4677

5238

5118

5738

5434

MY Exports

3394

3394

4100

4200

4500

4500

MY Exp. to EU

2121

2121

2200

2400

2500

2200

Industrial Dom. Cons.

0

0

0

0

0

0

Food Use Dom. Cons.

0

0

0

0

0

0

Feed Waste Dom. Cons.

720

720

710

700

730

700

Total Dom. Cons.

720

720

710

700

730

700

Ending Stocks

597

563

428

218

508

234

Total Distribution

4711

4677

5238

5118

5738

5434

(1000 MT) ,(PERCENT)Soybean

Soybean

Oilseed, Soybean

Market Begin Year

Ukraine

2014/2015

2015/2016

2016/2017

Sep 2014

Sep 2015

Sep 2016

USDA Official

New Post

USDA Official

New Post

USDA Official

New Post

Area Planted

1800

1806

2140

2147

2300

1846

Area Harvested

1800

1793

2137

2123

2000

1840

Beginning Stocks

265

265

176

152

235

203

Production

3900

3882

3932

3918

4300

3993

MY Imports

4

4

3

4

0

4

MY Imp. from U.S.

0

0

0

0

0

0

MY Imp. from EU

0

0

0

0

0

0

Total Supply

4169

4151

4111

4074

4535

4200

MY Exports

2422

2422

2200

2300

2600

2300

MY Exp. to EU

850

527

800

350

900

500

Crush

870

876

950

900

1000

1000

Food Use Dom. Cons.

1

1

1

1

1

1

Feed Waste Dom. Cons.

700

700

725

670

750

670

Total Dom. Cons.

1571

1577

1676

1571

1751

1671

Ending Stocks

176

152

235

203

184

229

Total Distribution

4169

4151

4111

4074

4535

4200

(1000 HA) ,(1000 MT)

Oil, Soybean

Market Begin Year

Ukraine

2014/2015

2015/2016

2016/2017

Sep 2014

Sep 2015

Sep 2016

USDA Official

New Post

USDA Official

New Post

USDA Official

New Post

Crush

870

876

950

900

1000

1000

Extr. Rate, 999.9999

0.1851

0.1826

0.1853

0.1822

0.185

0.183

Beginning Stocks

0

0

15

14

16

15

Production

161

160

176

164

185

183

MY Imports

0

0

0

0

0

0

MY Imp. from U.S.

0

0

0

0

0

0

MY Imp. from EU

0

0

0

0

0

0

Total Supply

161

160

191

178

201

198

MY Exports

136

136

160

155

170

175

MY Exp. to EU

65

60

65

75

80

90

Industrial Dom. Cons.

0

0

0

0

0

0

Food Use Dom. Cons.

10

10

15

8

15

8

Feed Waste Dom. Cons.

0

0

0

0

0

0

Total Dom. Cons.

10

10

15

8

15

8

Ending Stocks

15

14

16

15

16

15

Total Distribution

161

160

191

178

201

198

(1000 MT) ,(PERCENT)

Meal, Soybean

Market Begin Year

Ukraine

2014/2015

2015/2016

2016/2017

Sep 2014

Sep 2015

Sep 2016

USDA Official

New Post

USDA Official

New Post

USDA Official

New Post

Crush

870

876

950

900

1000

1000

Extr. Rate, 999.9999

0.7908

0.79

0.7905

0.79

0.79

0.784

Beginning Stocks

32

32

56

43

39

40

Production

688

692

751

711

790

784

MY Imports

2

2

2

1

2

2

MY Imp. from U.S.

0

0

0

0

0

0

MY Imp. from EU

0

0

0

0

0

0

Total Supply

722

726

809

755

831

826

MY Exports

216

213

300

255

300

300

MY Exp. to EU

0

15

0

29

0

30

Industrial Dom. Cons.

0

0

0

0

0

0

Food Use Dom. Cons.

0

0

0

0

0

0

Feed Waste Dom. Cons.

450

470

470

460

490

460

Total Dom. Cons.

450

470

470

460

490

460

Ending Stocks

56

43

39

40

41

66

Total Distribution

722

726

809

755

831

826

(1000 MT) ,(PERCENT)

Rapeseed

Oilseed, Rapeseed

Market Begin Year

Ukraine

2014/2015

2015/2016

2016/2017

Jul 2014

Jul 2015

Jul 2016

USDA Official

New Post

USDA Official

New Post

USDA Official

New Post

Area Planted

882

882

684

682

640

456

Area Harvested

880

865

677

671

500

440

Beginning Stocks

50

50

18

21

3

17

Production

2200

2198

1744

1810

1300

1157

MY Imports

2

2

2

2

2

2

MY Imp. from U.S.

0

0

0

0

0

0

MY Imp. from EU

0

2

0

2

0

2

Total Supply

2252

2250

1764

1833

1305

1176

MY Exports

1963

1963

1430

1435

1000

800

MY Exp. to EU

1287

1287

1200

1130

900

450

Crush

270

265

330

380

300

350

Food Use Dom. Cons.

0

0

0

0

0

0

Feed Waste Dom. Cons.

1

1

1

1

1

1

Total Dom. Cons.

271

266

331

381

301

351

Ending Stocks

18

21

3

17

4

25

Total Distribution

2252

2250

1764

1833

1305

1176

(1000 HA) ,(1000 MT)

Oil, Rapeseed

Market Begin Year

Ukraine

2014/2015

2015/2016

2016/2017

Jul 2014

Jul 2015

Jul 2016

USDA Official

New Post

USDA Official

New Post

USDA Official

New Post

Crush

270

265

330

380

300

350

Extr. Rate, 999.9999

0.3963

0.3887

0.397

0.3974

0.4

0.3971

Beginning Stocks

39

39

29

23

0

19

Production

107

103

131

151

120

139

MY Imports

1

1

1

1

1

1

MY Imp. from U.S.

0

0

0

0

0

0

MY Imp. from EU

0

0

0

1

0

1

Total Supply

147

143

161

175

121

159

MY Exports

112

112

155

154

110

129

MY Exp. to EU

30

67

30

94

30

80

Industrial Dom. Cons.

1

2

1

1

1

1

Food Use Dom. Cons.

5

6

5

1

5

2

Feed Waste Dom. Cons.

0

0

0

0

0

0

Total Dom. Cons.

6

8

6

2

6

3

Ending Stocks

29

23

0

19

5

27

Total Distribution

147

143

161

175

121

159

(1000 MT) ,(PERCENT)

Meal, Rapeseed

Market Begin Year

Ukraine

2014/2015

2015/2016

2016/2017

Jul 2014

Jul 2015

Jul 2016

USDA Official

New Post

USDA Official

New Post

USDA Official

New Post

Crush

270

265

330

380

300

350

Extr. Rate, 999.9999

0.5815

0.5811

0.5818

0.5816

0.5833

0.5829

Beginning Stocks

0

0

0

0

0

0

Production

157

154

192

221

175

204

MY Imports

0

0

0

0

0

0

MY Imp. from U.S.

0

0

0

0

0

0

MY Imp. from EU

0

0

0

0

0

0

Total Supply

157

154

192

221

175

204

MY Exports

133

133

192

189

150

177

MY Exp. to EU

112

112

110

157

80

150

Industrial Dom. Cons.

0

0

0

0

0

0

Food Use Dom. Cons.

0

0

0

0

0

0

Feed Waste Dom. Cons.

24

21

0

32

25

27

Total Dom. Cons.

24

21

0

32

25

27

Ending Stocks

0

0

0

0

0

0

Total Distribution

157

154

192

221

175

204

(1000 MT) ,(PERCENT)

Palm Oil

Oil, Palm

Market Begin Year

Ukraine

2014/2015

2015/2016

2016/2017

Jan 2015

Jan 2016

Jan 2017

USDA Official

New Post

USDA Official

New Post

USDA Official

New Post

Area Planted

0

0

0

0

0

0

Area Harvested

0

0

0

0

0

0

Trees

0

0

0

0

0

0

Beginning Stocks

31

31

31

24

25

27

Production

0

0

0

0

0

0

MY Imports

136

136

140

230

145

200

MY Imp. from U.S.

0

0

0

0

0

0

MY Imp. from EU

0

0

0

0

0

0

Total Supply

167

167

171

254

170

227

MY Exports

1

1

1

2

1

1

MY Exp. to EU

0

0

0

0

0

0

Industrial Dom. Cons.

5

5

5

5

5

6

Food Use Dom. Cons.

130

137

140

220

145

210

Feed Waste Dom. Cons.

0

0

0

0

0

0

Total Dom. Cons.

135

142

145

225

150

216

Ending Stocks

31

24

25

27

19

10

Total Distribution

167

167

171

254

170

227

(1000 HA) ,(1000 TREES) ,(1000 MT)