WHEAT

- Sept 30 - Argentina grants export licenses for 150,000 MT of wheat

- USDA lowered its estimate of 2016 US spring wheat output, excluding durum, to 534 million bushels from 571 million previously and below average expectations of 570 million bu (531-585 – range)

- In its quarterly stocks report, USDA said that US wheat stocks as of Sept 1 stood at 2.527 billion bushels, the biggest since 1987 and topped analysts' average expectations of 2.402 billion bu (2.115-2.558 – range)

- Kazakh Ag Min said Kazakhstan exported 1.461 MMT of grain between July 1-September 30, 2016/17 vs. 1.413 MMT a year ago, incl. flour – 599,000 MT in wheat equivalent vs. 575,000 MT in the same period of 2015/16

- Kazakh farmers harvested 22.51 MMT of all grains as of Oct 3, up from 15.58 MMT a year ago. Yields totalled 1.51 mt/ha up from 1.23 mt/ha a year ago

- Russia may again introduce wheat export duty in the case of sharp rouble weakening or a dramatic decline in harvest

- Russia's Ag Min said Russia exported about 9.436 MMT of grain between July 1-Sept 28, 2016/17, down by 3% from 9.777 MMT a year ago, including:

  • wheat – 7.754 MMT (7.637 MMT a year ago);
  • barley – 1.259 MMT (1.642 MMT);
  • corn – 381 TMT (438 TMT);
  • others – 42 TMT (60 TMT)

- Russia has 3,260,000 MT of grain in its federal intervention fund as of September 30

- European Commission (EC) lifted its estimate for 2016 EU soft wheat crop to 134.2 MMT from 133.26 MMT last month, well below record production of 151.6 MMT last year. EU's executive kept its EU soft wheat exports estimate at 25.0 MMT in 2016/17, unchanged from prior forecast, but well below the 32.7 MMT in 2015/16. Soft wheat inventories in the region are forecasted at 8.87 MMT (8.04 MMT– previous estimate) by the end of June 2017, less than 16.1 MMT (14.27 MMT previously) estimated for 2015/16

CORN

- Sept 30 - Argentina grants export licenses for 34,202 MT of corn

- USDA said US corn inventories as of Sept 1 were the biggest since 2006 at 1.738 billion bushels, but below analysts' average expectations of 1.754 billion bu (1.665-1.862 – range), indicating that livestock producers had fed more corn to their animals than anticipated

- EC cut its 2016 EU corn harvest forecast to 59.66 MMT from 62.5 MMT last month (58.02 MMT in 2015). Projected imports in new season were upped to 14 MMT from 13 MMT previously, while imports in 2015/16 were raised to 13.29 MMT from 13.14 MMT previously. EC increased its estimate for 2015/16 corn ending stocks to 17.51 MMT from 16.31 MMT previously and raised expected stocks at the end of 2016/17 to 14.34 from 10.98 MMT in August

- EC raised its 2016 EU barley harvest estimate to 59.61 MMT from 59.0 MMT last month, down from 60.69 MMT in 2015. Projected exports in new season were left unchanged at 8 MMT, but well below than 14.16 MMT in 2015/16. EC increased its estimate for 2015/16 barley ending stocks to 4.92 MMT from 3.77 MMT previously and raised expected stocks at the end of 2016/17 to 7.14 from 5.2 MMT in August

- EIA estimated US ethanol production for July at 31.251 million barrels versus 30.258 million barrels in June and vs. 30.249 million barrels a year ago

- EIA reported July ethanol inventory at 21.167 million barrels, which is 7.4% higher from last year, but down 0.2% from June

SOYBEAN

- Sept 30 - USDA announced export sales of 316,000 MT of US soybeans for delivery during 2016/17:

  • 118,000 MT to China;
  • 198,000 MT to unknown destinations

- USDA said US soybean stocks as of Sept 1 were at a five-year high of 197 million bushels, but below analysts' average expectations of 201 million bu (180-256 – range), indicating a strong export market and healthy processing pace. Despite the massive drawdown in corn and soybeans, stocks were expected to be replenished quickly in the coming weeks due to forecasts for record harvests of both crops

- EIA said US July biodiesel production at 140 million gallons vs. 135 million gallons in June and vs. 122 million gallons a year ago

- EIA said 536 million lbs. of soybean oil used for biodiesel in July (52% of feedstock used to produce biodiesel) vs. 519 million lbs. in June and vs. 446 million lbs. a year ago

- EC raised its 2016 EU rapeseed harvest estimate to 19.92 MMT from 19.42 MMT in August, down 7.6% from 21.56 MMT in 2015

- EC trimmed its 2016 EU sunflower crop forecast to 8.27 MMT from 8.41 MMT previously, up 5.5% from 7.84 MMT in 2015

- EC lifted its 2016 EU soybean harvest forecast to 2.12 MMT from 2.08 MMT in August, down 6.8% from 2.28 MMT in 2015