Oilseeds. World Markets and Trade. September 2016 - USDA Sept. 12, 2016
Record U.S. Peanut Exports on Strong Shipments to China and Vietnam
U.S. peanut exports (August – July) reached a record 700,000 tons (inshell basis) in 2015/16, 43 percent above last year. Shipments to China and Vietnam climbed to new heights, accounting for most of the export gains. Total shipments to other markets declined 4 percent for the year, primarily in response to strong competition from Argentina which impacted U.S. sales to the EU. Sales to China totaled 197,000 tons, an eight-fold increase over the previous year. A majority of these were lower-valued raw peanuts shipped in shell and destined for crush. However, exports of higher quality peanuts for the food market were also significantly higher. Peanut exports to Vietnam reached 81,000 tons, a three-fold increase over 2014/15. Unlike China, a majority of the peanuts exported were shipped as raw shelled peanuts.
Despite the large increase in export volume, the total value of peanut exports rose by a more modest 26 percent to $656 million. Reduced sales of higher valued peanuts to the EU, coupled with the tremendous growth in lower-priced peanuts for crush led to an 11 percent decline in the average unit value.
The strong export performance seen this year is forecast to continue into the 2016/17 marketing year. China is expected to pursue additional imports of low valued peanuts in the coming year, both in the U.S. and other markets such as Senegal and India. Exports for higher valued food peanuts are expected to be brisk as demand remains strong.
Currently, prices for higher quality peanuts remain elevated as the market faces a somewhat tighter supply situation following a 20 percent reduction in this year's peanut harvest in Argentina. However, global stocks remain adequate to meet demand and keep price premiums in check. Average export unit values in the coming year are expected to reflect those seen in 2015/16 as the export of crush quality peanuts continues to represent a significant portion of export sales. However, stronger prices this year for food peanuts, and possibilities for increased sales in light of the reduced harvest in Argentina could lend some support.
2015/16 Soybean Cargoes Rejections Cause Egypt's Soybean Meal and Vegetable Oil Imports to Surge
Between May 2015 and June 2016, Egypt's agricultural quarantine authorities rejected 15 vessels of soybeans: 2 from Ukraine, 3 from Brazil, 4 from Argentina, and 6 from the United States*. Cargoes have been rejected, totaling approximately 645,000 tons, due to higher-than-permitted levels of ambrosia and fungus. As a result, Egypt's total 2015/16 soybean import forecast has been reduced 500,000 tons to only 1.3 million. This is reflected in a lower crush forecast, down 40 percent to 1.2 million tons.
The rejections come at a very inconvenient time as Egypt requires soybeans to satisfy growing domestic protein meal and vegetable oil consumption. Due to inability to crush sufficient quantities of soybeans, Egypt has been forced to increase its soybean meal and vegetable oil imports. Imports of soybean meal between October 2015 and July 2016 reached over 2.0 million tons, with the bulk of shipments arriving from Argentina (1.8 million tons) with less than 200,000 tons shipped from the United States. At the same time Egypt boosted its soybean and sunflowerseed oil imports by approximately 45 percent each. Imports of soybean oil in 2015/16 are forecast at 700,000 tons and sunflowerseed oil at 400,000 tons.
In 2016/17, soybean import volume is forecast to return to previous levels with the added demand resulting from planned expansions in crush activity. Soybean crush it expected at rise to 2.4 million tons in the coming year. However if Egypt's agricultural quarantine authorities continue to block soybean shipments, domestic crush will suffer and Egypt will continue to rely more on imported soybean meal and vegetable oils to meet demand.
U.S. Increasing Foothold on South Asia Soybean Meal Market
With 2015/16 soybean meal production expected to be at the lowest level since 2005, India's exports of soybean meal have nearly evaporated. Once a major regional supplier, India's soybean meal exports to adjacent countries in South Asia (Pakistan, Bangladesh, Nepal, and Sri Lanka) have fallen to unprecedented levels, although protein meal consumption in the region continues to expand.
Major soybean exporters, including the United States, have filled the void through increased sales of both soybeans and soybean meal to the region. In the current marketing year, U.S. exports of soybean meal account for a quarter of total imports to South Asia, more than double last year and a four-fold increase compared to two years earlier. When soybean exports are considered, total U.S. share of trade to the region, measured on a soybean meal basis, is expected to approach 40 percent.
Brazil has also seen a growing presence in the South Asia market, garnering a quarter of imports this year. However, the big winner in the region is Argentina which rapidly expanded its share over the last 4 years and currently accounts for over one third of soybean meal import share, which is down from a near 50% share in 2014/15.
While India soybean meal production and exports are expected to increase with better growing conditions in the coming year, there will not be enough meal available to appreciably gain back lost sales. This bodes well for the United States and other exporters hoping to maintain the strong growth in trade seen over past few years.
Global oilseed production is forecast higher this month, primarily on increased peanut, cottonseed, and sunflowerseed production, offset by reduced rapeseed output. Soybean production is modestly increased with a larger U.S. production forecast offset by reductions in Brazil, India, and Canada. The rapeseed crop is lowered for the European Union and Russia, offsetting a modest increase in Canada. Global sunflowerseed production is raised this month following larger forecasts for Argentina and India, more than offsetting a reduction in the EU. Global peanut production is raised this month on India's improved crop projections and a larger U.S. production forecast. Soybean imports are forecast lower on reduced shipments to China. Exports are reduced on smaller shipments from Brazil, Canada, and India, all due to lower production projections, offset by a larger U.S. export forecast. Global stocks are increased this month. The U.S. season-average farm price is projected at $9.05 per bushel.
Global rapeseed production is adjusted higher this month on revised production in Canada. Soybean production is raised on a larger harvest estimates for Argentina. Imports are slightly up as gains in the EU offset a slower trade pace for Egypt, China, and Turkey. Exports are up slightly on larger shipments from the United States exceeding reductions in Brazil and Argentina. Global stocks are raised this month. The U.S. season-average farm price is estimated at $8.95 per bushel.
U.S. export bids in August, FOB Gulf, averaged $413/ton, down $17 from last month.
As of the week ending August 25, U.S. 2015/16 soybean export commitments (outstanding sales plus accumulated exports) to China totaled 29.9 million tons compared with 29.6 million a year ago. Total commitments to the world are 52.8 million tons, compared with 50.6 million for the same period last year.
2016/17 TRADE OUTLOOK CHANGES
- United States
- Soybean exports are raised 953,000 tons to 54.0 million based on an increased production forecast.
- Soybean imports are raised 100,000 tons to 350,000 on expectations of continued shipments from Paraguay.
- Soybean exports are lowered 1.3 million tons to 58.4 million following a decline in expected production.
- Soybean exports are down 300,000 tons to 3.9 million on smaller production forecast.
- Soybean meal exports are cut 100,000 tons to 210,000 reflecting reduced crush projections.
- Rapeseed exports are up 200,000 tons to 9.6 million on a larger production forecast and expected demand from the European Union.
- China soybean imports are reduced 1.0 million tons to 86.0 million reflecting a slightly larger production forecast, continuing auctions from state reserves, and lower exportable supplies in Brazil.
- European Union
- Rapeseed imports are up 500,000 tons to 3.5 million in response to a lower production forecast and larger exportable global supplies.
- Sunflowerseed imports are raised 100,000 tons to 400,000 on lower crop projections.
- Soybean exports are cut 100,000 tons to 150,000 following a lower production forecast.
- Soybean meal exports are slashed 800,000 tons to 900,000, reflecting reduced soybean crush.
- Iran soybean meal imports are down 200,000 tons to 1.6 million in response to decreased availability from India.
- Pakistan soybean meal imports are lowered 100,000 tons to 700,000 on reduced exportable supplies in India.
2015/16 TRADE CHANGES
- United States
- Soybean exports surge 1.6 million tons to 52.8 million based on strong export sales and a slowing pace of shipments from Brazil.
- Angola palm oil imports are down 100,000 tons to 200,000, reflecting the weaker pace of trade.
- Soybean exports are down 200,000 tons to 10.3 million, on tightening stocks.
- Soybean meal exports are reduced 600,000 tons to 31.6 million in response to lower crush forecasts.
- Bangladesh palm oil imports are raised 100,000 tons to 1.5 million on a stronger trade of pace.
- Brazil soybean exports are down 1.1 million tons to 55.5 million in response to a slowing export pace, while soybean meal exports are also lowered 200,000 tons to 15.6 million on tightening supplies and a slower pace of trade.
- Soybean imports are down 500,000 tons to 82.5 million reflecting the weaker pace of trade in the last quarter.
- Soybean oil imports are reduced 150,000 tons to 670,000 on a slower pace of trade.
- Soybean meal imports are up 460,000 tons to 2.3 million, while soybean imports are reduced 500,000 tons to 1.3 million, reflecting pace of trade to date.
- Sunflowerseed oil is reduced 100,000 tons to 400,000 on a slower pace of trade.
- European Union
- Rapeseed imports are raised 123,000 tons to 3.4 million on final trade data.
- Soybean imports are up 100,000 tons to 13.7 million reflecting the stronger pace of trade towards end of the marketing year.
- Iran soybean meal imports are lowered 200,000 tons to 1.5 million due to a slower pace of trade.
- Malaysia palm oil exports are lowered 200,000 tons to 16.8 million on tightening stocks and slower trade pace.
- Singapore palm oil imports are down 100,000 tons to 400,000, reflecting the weaker pace of trade
- Turkey soybean meal imports are raised 100,000 tons to 700,000 and soybean imports are lowered 100,000 tons to 2.2 million, reflecting pace of trade to date.