Comparative table of StatCan data and market expectations

(mln tonnes)

Statscan July 31/2016

Average estimate

Lowest estimate

Highest estimate

All wheat

5.167

4.29

3.31

5.49

Durum

1.092

1.02

0.89

1.15

Canola

2.016

1.27

0.70

1.88

Oats

0.93

0.88

0.83

0.95

Barley

1.443

1.53

1.30

1.70

Flax

0.274

0.29

0.15

0.38

Peas

0.176

0.21

0.09

0.27

Lentils

0.073

0.08

0.05

0.17

As of July 31, Canada's total stock levels for wheat, canola and lentils were down from the same date a year earlier. Meanwhile, barley and oat stocks increased compared with July 31, 2015.

Wheat

Total stocks of wheat fell 26.8% from July 31, 2015, to 5.2 million tonnes as of July 31, 2016. This decline was the result of a 29.2% drop in commercial stocks to 3.0 million tonnes and a 23.1% decrease in stocks held on farms to 2.2 million tonnes. Alberta reported the largest decline of on-farm stocks, down 44.4% to 495 000 tonnes. Saskatchewan also reported a decrease, down 14.7% to 1.5 million tonnes.

Canola

At the national level, canola stocks fell 20.7% to 2.0 million tonnes as of July 31, as a result of decreases in both on-farm stocks and commercial stocks. Meanwhile, canola crushing was at record levels for the crop year ending July 31, 2016. On-farm stocks, which are concentrated in Western Canada, declined 25.9% compared with July 31, 2015, to 915 000 tonnes. Commercial stocks were 15.8% lower compared with the same date in 2015 at 1.1 million tonnes.

Barley

Total barley stocks grew 18.6% to 1.4 million tonnes as of July 31. Stocks held on farm, which accounted for nearly 90% of total stocks, rose 23.3% to 1.3 million tonnes. Meanwhile, commercial stocks fell 9.9% to 155 000 tonnes.

Oats

As of July 31, total stocks of oats were up 38.2% compared with July 31, 2015, to 930 000 tonnes. Increases in both on-farm (+30.5%) and commercial (+59.5%) stock levels led to an overall rise.

Lentils

Overall stocks of lentils fell 80.0% from July 31, 2015, to 73 000 tonnes as of July 31, 2016. Commercial stocks were down 11.6% to 38 000 tonnes. Meanwhile, stocks held on farms fell 89.1% to 35 000 tonnes. These were the lowest on-farm and commercial stock levels since July 2010.

Total stocks of principal field crops at July 31

July 2014

July 2015

July 2016

July 2014 to July 2015

July 2015 to July 2016

thousands of tonnes

% change

Total wheat

10 405

7 054

5 167

-32.2

-26.8

Durum wheat

1 739

956

1 092

-45.0

14.2

Wheat excluding durum

8 665

6 098

4 075

-29.6

-33.2

Barley

1 950

1 217

1 443

-37.6

18.6

Canola

3 008

2 542

2 016

-15.5

-20.7

Dry field peas

329

684

176

107.9

-74.3

Flaxseed

92

97

274

5.4

182.5

Lentils

786

365

73

-53.6

-80.0

Oats

1 054

673

930

-36.1

38.2

Rye

44

42

51

-4.5

21.4