OVERVIEW

For 2016/17, global production is down slightly. U.S. production is lowered fractionally but remains a record. The global trade forecast is raised marginally this month, but is still declining for the third consecutive year. The U.S. season-average farm price for all rice is lowered $0.80/cwt to $10.90/cwt.

For 2015/16, production is up marginally this month as a larger crop in Indonesia more than offsets smaller crops in Vietnam and Afghanistan. Consumption is down, primarily in India where ending stock estimates have been raised. Trade is down slightly. The U.S. seasonaverage farm price remains at $12.30/cwt.

PRICES

Since early 2014, U.S. medium grain prices have been exceptionally high, as reflected in export quotes from California, the largest producing state. The California drought conditions significantly reduced planted area in recent years. However, in late June, USDA National Agricultural Services reported sharply higher planted area in California. Since then, the medium grain quotes have declined significantly. Prices this low have not been observed in more than 2 years. With competitive pricing, a large California crop, and a smaller medium grain crop in Australia, U.S. medium grain exports are forecast at the highest in 5 years.

Selected Exporters

• India's exports are boosted 300,000 tons to 9.3 million for 2016 on a strong pace of shipments to date. Exports are also raised 300,000 tons to 8.8 million for 2017 with more exportable supplies.

• Vietnam's exports are lowered 500,000 tons to 6.4 million for 2016, based on a smaller crop and lower demand from South East Asia. Exports are also lowered 200,000 tons to 6.8 million for 2017, based on reduced competitiveness.

Selected Importers

  • Afghanistan's imports are raised 100,000 tons to 220,000 for 2016 and are up 120,000 tons to 240,000 for 2017 in response to lower production.
  • Bangladesh's imports are down 100,000 tons to 150,000 for 2017 on the application of a higher import tariff.
  • Cote d'Ivoire's imports are lifted by 250,000 tons to 1.3 million for 2016 and by 300,000 tons to 1.2 million for 2017 on strong demand for imports, especially from Thailand and India.
  • EU's imports are raised 150,000 tons to 1.8 million for both 2016 and 2017, as suppliers under the Everything But Arms provisions remain competitive.
  • Indonesia's imports are lowered 350,000 tons to 1.5 million for 2016 as better-than expected production reduces need for imports.
  • Iran's imports are lowered by 100,000 tons to 1.1 million for 2017 on prospects of a larger crop.
  • Iraq's imports are reduced by 100,000 tons to 1.1 million for 2016 on slow government purchases to date.
  • Madagascar's imports are cut 100,000 tons to 250,000 for 2016 on sluggish shipments to date and are also trimmed 100,000 tons to 300,000 for 2017 on reduced consumption.