Coarse Grains. World Markets and Trade. July 2016 – USDA July 12, 2016
For 2016/17, global corn production is marginally lower with reductions for Brazil, Canada, and EU more than offsetting a larger expected crop for the United States. U.S. production is projected higher on larger planted area from the NASS Acreage report. Global trade is lower, driven by reduced imports for the EU and South Korea. These countries are expected to use wheat in feed rations at the expense of imported corn. Forecast exports for Argentina and the United States are higher, but lower for Brazil, Canada, and the EU. The U.S. season-average farm price is projected 10 cents lower to $3.40 per bushel.
For 2015/16, global corn production is lowered again this month driven by a significant cut for Brazil. Nevertheless, global trade is boosted to a new record as higher imports for Brazil, China, Japan, Mexico, and South Korea more than offset a reduction for the EU. Exports for Argentina and the United States are higher, more than offsetting lower Brazilian exports. The U.S. seasonaverage farm price is lowered 5 cents to $3.65 per bushel.
BRAZIL: SUPPLY AND DEMAND CHANGE
Brazilian 2015/16 corn production, forecast at 70.0 million tons, is down 7.5 million from last month and is the smallest crop in 5 years. Marketing Year (MY) 2015/16 (March 2016-February 2017) exports are cut 4.0 million tons to 18.5 million. Consequently, trade year 2016/17 (October-September) exports are slashed 2.5 million tons to 20.5 million and 2015/16 trade year exports are cut 1.5 million tons to 33.0 million. Additionally, 2016/17 imports are raised 100,000 tons and 2015/16 imports are up 200,000 tons. With supplies more limited and prices relatively high, domestic consumption in 2015/16 is forecast lower and ending stocks are projected tighter. Further, Brazil's 2016/17 crop is projected 2.0 million tons smaller at 80.0 million, resulting in lower projected consumption as well as MY 2016/17 exports.
Following the release of the June WASDE report, FOB quotes for all major exporters initially moved up on expectations of drier weather. With the release of the NASS Acreage report, however, prices have plunged in response to prospects for larger supplies in the United States. Ongoing harvests in South America and forecasts for beneficial weather in the United States also contributed to downward pressure. U.S. quotes have fallen $25/ton to $168. Argentine quotes are dropped $32/ton to $173, and Brazilian quotes are down $26/ton to $177.
Even though the harvests are ongoing in Argentina and Brazil, the United States retains a price advantage based on weather-induced damage to the Brazilian crop and harvest delays in Argentina. Black Sea quotes are up $2/ton to $200 on tight nearby supplies. Note: Recent Brazilian quotes are for August, while all other export quotes are for nearby (30-day) shipment.
TRADE CHANGES IN 2016/17
- U.S. corn is boosted 2.5 million tons to 52.0 million reflecting competitive prices on larger projected supplies as well as reduced competition from Brazil.
- Argentine corn is up 500,000 tons to 23.0 million on greater supplies.
- Brazilian corn is slashed 2.5 million tons to 20.5 million based on a reduced crop.
- Canadian corn is down 700,000 tons to 500,000 due to a smaller expected crop.
- EU corn is cut 500,000 tons to 2.5 million on reduced competitiveness compared with other origins.
- Australian barley is boosted 200,000 tons to 6.0 million with a larger projected crop.
- EU corn is reduced 1.0 million tons to 11.0 million as ample supplies of domestic wheat erode the need for imported corn.
- Japanese corn is up 500,000 tons to 15.0 million, as the feed sector is expected to purchase larger amounts of corn with lower prices. Though livestock numbers are generally declining, there has been growth in both poultry and swine populations and an increase in weights for swine.
- South Korean corn is lowered 500,000 tons to 10.0 million due to anticipated larger purchases of competitively-priced feed quality wheat.
- Zimbabwean corn is raised 400,000 tons to 1.4 million on the announced target set by the government. The government has reportedly secured the funding for corn purchases.
- Algerian barley is up 250,000 tons to 900,000 to mostly offset reduced production in support of continued demand for feed.
- Moroccan barley is boosted 200,000 tons to 700,000 to partly offset poor pasture conditions and a reduced crop, which is forecast to be the smallest since 2007/08.
TRADE CHANGES IN 2015/16
- U.S. corn is raised 2.5 million tons to 48.5 million with robust sales and shipments.
- Argentine corn is raised 500,000 tons to 20.5 million on a larger crop and shipments to date.
- Argentine barley is up 400,000 tons to 2.9 million on a larger crop and continued strong demand from Saudi Arabia.
- EU barley is raised 200,000 tons to 9.9 million on trade to date.
- Chinese corn is boosted 1.1 million tons to 3.1 million reflecting larger purchases from Ukraine and trade to date.
- EU corn is down 1.3 million tons to 13.2 million reflecting a greater use of domestic barley and wheat for feed.
- Japanese corn is raised 300,000 tons to 15.0 million on feed demand.
- South Korean corn is up 300,000 tons to 10.3 million on strong feed demand.
- Mexican corn is raised 500,000 tons to 13.0 million on the continued fast pace of purchases from the United States.
- Saudi Arabian barley is boosted 300,000 tons to 9.8 million on trade to date.