Grain. World Markets and Trade. May 2013 May 11, 2013
Exportable Supplies of Corn, Wheat, and Rice Expand With Record Global Production
Record global corn production in 2013/14 is expected to pressure prices substantially.
Consequently, feed use is forecast to climb sharply.
Global corn production is forecast up 109 million tons (13 percent) on the basis of record crops in the United States, Argentina, China, and Ukraine.
Record global corn consumption is driven primarily by the United States and China, where feed demand remains strong. With prospects for a record U.S. crop, global corn stocks are currently expected to be replenished to the highest level in over a decade. For wheat, record production and ample exportable supplies in the EU, Kazakhstan, Russia, and Ukraine are partially offset by a smaller U.S. wheat crop. High early-season prices are expected to stimulate additional plantings in Argentina, Australia, and Canada.
Global consumption is also expected to rise as a result of increased animal feeding and population growth. Global ending stocks are forecast to rise slightly.
Record rice production, coupled with abundant and growing stocks, is expected to pressure prices downward. Consumption is also at a record level, with continued growth in China and India. Government policies, especially in Thailand, will continue to impact global market dynamics.
WHEAT: WORLD MARKETS AND TRADE
HIGHLIGHTS FOR 2013/14
Global wheat production is projected to reach a record 701 million tons, up 47 million from 2012/13.
Production in the Black Sea region is expected to increase in comparison to last year’s drought impacted crop. Production in the Middle East and North Africa is also estimated at higher levels than last year. On the other hand, the U.S. crop is projected nearly 6 million tons lower. Global consumption is forecast 20 million tons higher to 695 million tons as a result of population growth, increased per capita consumption, and higher animal feeding. Global ending stocks are forecast to rise 6 million tons to 186 million; stocks in the United States are expected to drop, whereas most other exporter stocks (except India) are expected to grow slightly. The season-average farm price is down $1.00/bushel from last year’s record to $6.80/bushel.
Global trade is projected down marginally to 143 million tons. Less import demand for wheat used in animal feeding is projected in Japan and South Korea, whereas Saudi Arabia is expected to import more wheat for feeding to supplement barley usage. Abundant crops in the Middle East and North Africa also limit demand. Although the EU has a bigger crop, carryover import licenses for low- and medium quality wheat will facilitate large imports of feed quality wheat from the Black Sea.
Egypt’s demand is expected to recover to some extent, but it depends on its ability to finance future sales. Import demand is projected down in Algeria, Iran, Iraq, Morocco, and Turkey because of excellent production prospects.
• Algeria is cut 200,000 tons to 6.0 million and Morocco is down 1.3 million tons to 2.0 million. Egypt is up 1.0 million tons to 9.0 million.
• China is up 300,000 tons to 3.5 million.
• EU is raised 800,000 tons to 6.5 million.
• Iran is down 4.0 million tons to 1.0 million.
• Japan and South Korea are reduced a combined 1.0 million tons.
• Indonesia and Philippines are each raised 400,000 tons.
• Turkey is down 500,000 tons to 3.0 million tons.
Kazakhstan, Russia, and Ukraine’s exportable supplies are projected significantly higher as a result of larger crops. India will play a significant role again this year as government stocks continue to be burdensome. The EU is expected to drop due to strong competition with Russia and Ukraine and larger crops in North Africa. Argentina is down because supplies are expected to be tight until the new crop is harvested in November. Australia’s export reduction is caused by increased competition with the Black Sea, particularly into the Middle East. The United States is expecting a below-average Hard Red Winter wheat crop, limiting exportable supplies and, as a result, exports are projected down.
• Argentina is cut 1.0 million tons to 6.5 million.
• Australia is lowered 2.0 million tons to 17.0 million.
• Canada is unchanged at 18.5 million tons.
• EU is cut 4.5 million tons to 17.0 million.
• India is down 500,000 tons to 8.0 million.
• Kazakhstan is up 1.0 million tons to 7.5 million.
• Russia jumps 7.3 million tons to 18.0 million.
• Ukraine expands 2.5 million tons to 9.5 million.
• The United States is down 2.5 million tons to 25.5 million.
Domestic: Wheat prices were up for most classes in April. Hard Red Winter (HRW) was up $22 to $338/ton on reports of continued poor crop conditions. Hard Red Spring (HRS) was up $10 to $358/ton and Soft Red Winter (SRW) rose $8 to $289/ton. Soft White wheat (SWW) prices dropped $2 to $310/ton. Farm prices in 2013/14 are expected to remain strong throughout the summer months and drop significantly as the new corn crop is harvested.
Global trade is nearly unchanged.
TRADE CHANGES IN 2012/13
• EU exports are boosted 1.0 million tons to 21.5 million on strong licenses and sales.
• U.S. exports are down 500,000 tons to 28.0 million because of strong competition with the EU for late-season sales.
• Egypt imports are cut 500,000 tons to 8.0 million because the government limited purchases.
RICE: WORLD MARKETS AND TRADE
HIGHLIGHTS FOR 2013/14
Global production is expected to reach a record 479 million tons. Production is set to outpace consumption, which is estimated at 477 million tons. Stocks, especially those held by exporters, are forecast at record levels. India is still dealing with massive stocks accumulated during a 4-year non-basmati export ban. In Thailand, domestic support policies result in large government stocks, at levels well above annual exports. Global trade is forecast nearly unchanged as several traditional importers focus efforts on boosting production. In contrast, U.S. production, stocks, and trade are all expected to fall as farmers switch to more profitable crops.
• Thailand is forecast at 8.5 million tons, rising 500,000 over the previous year, as the government continues to release stocks.
• India is expected to also export 8.5 million tons, down 500,000 tons.
• Vietnam is forecast at 7.7 million tons on competitive prices, up 300,000 tons.
• Pakistan is steady at 3.2 million tons as lower basmati production and logistical issues constrain exports.
• United States is forecast at 3.2 million, down 200,000 million tons on a smaller crop and stronger competition with South America and Asia for long-grain and Egypt and Australia for medium-grain rice.
• China is expected to be unchanged at a robust 3.0 million tons on account of plentiful lower-priced rice from neighboring suppliers.
• Nigeria is unchanged at 2.9 million tons as demand for imported rice remains strong, despite government efforts to increase local production.
• Indonesia is steady at 1.5 million tons, though final purchase decisions will depend on whether domestic procurement targets are met.
HIGHLIGHTS FOR 2012/13
Global production is estimated higher, largely on an increase in the official government estimate in India. Stock increases in India and Thailand continue to support ample global stocks. Global trade for 2013 is now estimated only marginally below the record set in 2012, as India continues to increase exports.
Long-grain quotes from the top five exporting countries have continued to be relatively stable over the past month. Although Thailand has recently lowered its quote, it is still over $120 more than other Asian quotes. The U.S. and South American quotes remain significantly higher than the Asian exporters.
SELECTED TRADE CHANGES FOR 2013
• India is boosted 1.4 million tons to 9.0 million on the strong pace of shipments.
• Pakistan is cut 100,000 tons to 3.2 million on account of lower basmati sales, especially to Iran.
• United States is down 100,000 tons to 3.4 million on greater competition from other suppliers.
• China is raised 600,000 tons to 3.0 million as lower-priced rice from neighboring countries continues to enter at large volumes.
• Nigeria is up 200,000 tons to 2.9 million as imported rice demand continues.
• Iran is lowered 200,000 tons to 1.5 million as the pace of shipments slows.
• Indonesia is up 700,000 tons to 1.5 million in order to maintain sufficient supplies.
• EU is lowered 200,000 tons to 1.2 million on slower purchases to date.
• Nepal is boosted 100,000 tons to 320,000 on large purchases from India.
• Sierra Leone is raised 120,000 tons to 220,000 on higher-than-expected shipments.
SELECTED TRADE CHANGES FOR 2012
• Pakistan’s exports are finalized down 100,000 tons to 3.4 million.
• China’s imports are finalized up 200,000 tons to 2.9 million.
To better reflect the balance between supply and use, the following series was revised.
• Nigeria’s production, consumption, trade, and stocks back to 2009/2010.
COARSE GRAINS: WORLD MARKETS AND TRADE
OVERVIEW FOR 2013/14
Global coarse grain production is forecast to soar 125 million tons, led by a record U.S. corn crop. South America, although down, is still expected to have near-record production. With global coarse grain consumption forecast to climb by over 80 million tons (about half of this is corn for feed), stocks would grow by over 30 million tons, ending a 3-year slide.
Higher coarse grain exports come principally from Black Sea countries as the United States gains--and South America loses--about 15 million tons of trade. China leads the growth in imports, primarily as lower world prices increase corn trade. United States and EU imports are sharply lower on improved domestic production prospects.
Global corn production is forecast at a record 966 million tons, up nearly 110 million with recovery expected in the United States following last year’s drought-decimated crop. Global consumption is projected to climb almost 75 million tons to a record 937 million. While the boost in global production is largely in the United States, growth in consumption is split between U.S. and foreign markets, particularly China. Corn used for ethanol in the United States is up from last year, although forecast lower than the peak seen 2 years ago.
World corn imports are expected to be stronger with most of the additional demand coming from China; demand in the United States and EU will be sharply lower because of larger crops.
World barley production is forecast to recover to the highest level in 4 years. Trade is forecast slightly lower because of greater availability of other feed grains. Australia is expected to return as the largest barley exporter. Argentine exports are forecast down for the first time in 4 years as farmers reportedly shift back to wheat. EU exports are also lower as competition intensifies with Australia and Russia and as import demand from the Middle East and North Africa declines slightly.
Global sorghum trade is forecast to grow sharply because of a strong recovery in U.S. exportable supplies and robust demand from Mexico.
HIGHLIGHTS FOR 2013/14
• U.S. corn is forecast at 33.0 million tons, up 13.5 million, with prospects for a record crop and substantially lower prices. The season-average farm price is cut by one-third to $4.70.
• Argentine corn is cut 6.0 million tons to 16.0 million, despite a forecast record crop, because of continued robust growth in domestic use and the likely strong pace of shipments expected to occur before October 1, 2013.
• Brazilian corn is slashed 8.5 million tons to 18.0 million, despite a forecast for another bumper crop, based on strong competition from the United States and others.
• South African corn is 100,000 tons higher at 1.8 million on a larger expected crop.
• Ukrainian corn is up 3.0 million tons to a record 16.5 million based on an expected record crop.
• Argentine barley is down 1.7 million tons to 2.3 million on lower crop prospects.
• Australia is forecast to be the world’s largest barley exporter, expanding shipments by 300,000 tons to 4.1 million on greater exportable supplies.
• Canadian barley is unchanged year-to-year at 1.5 million tons.
• EU barley is cut 200,000 tons to 3.8 million due to strong competition from Russia for reduced demand in the Middle East and North Africa.
• Kazakh barley is doubled to 400,000 due to larger production.
• Russian barley is boosted sharply by 1.5 million tons to 3.8 million on a bumper crop.
• Ukrainian barley is reduced 200,000 tons to 2.0 million on tight exportable supplies.
Argentine sorghum is down by 400,000 tons to 3.0 million because of stronger competition from the United States.
• Australian sorghum is cut 100,000 tons to 900,000 on greater competition from the United States and strong feed demand.
• U.S. sorghum is forecast sharply higher, up 1.7 million tons to 3.8 million, on prospects for the largest crop in 5 years.
• U.S. corn is forecast at 650,000 tons, 2.4 million lower than last year’s record, based on a projected record crop.
• Chinese corn is boosted 4.0 million tons to a new record 7.0 million (roughly filling the tariff rate quota, TRQ) based on continuing large price differences between domestic and imported corn, firm demand for feed grains, but despite a forecast record crop.
• Egyptian corn is raised 900,000 tons to 4.9 million because of tight domestic supplies.
• EU corn is cut 3.5 million tons to 7.0 million based on a rebound in domestic production and larger available supplies of feed-quality wheat.
• Japanese corn is forecast up 500,000 tons to 15.5 million based on less usage of feed quality wheat.
• Mexican corn is down 1.0 million tons to 6.5 million on a larger crop and higher sorghum imports.
• South Korean corn is boosted 200,000 tons to 8.2 million although total feed demand for grains is lower.
• Chinese barley is cut 200,000 tons to 2.2 million as more adjuncts are expected to be used in brewing.
• Japanese barley is expected to remain steady at 1.3 million tons.
• Saudi barley is forecast to remain unchanged year-to-year at 7.5 million tons with greater usage of feed-quality wheat.
• EU sorghum is cut 200,000 tons to 150,000 on larger domestic production of wheat and corn.
• Japanese sorghum is steady at 1.6 million tons.
• Mexican sorghum is up 1.3 million tons to 3.5 million, the highest in 12 years, on greater exportable supplies from the United States.
OVERVIEW FOR 2012/13
Global corn production and consumption are up slightly. Trade is also slightly higher, as stronger demand from EU, South Korea, and Venezuela more than offsets weaker demand from Mexico. U.S. exports are cut substantially and replaced by higher exports from Argentina and Brazil. The season-average farm price is unchanged.
U.S. corn quotes have moved up $15 to $297/ton since the release of the April WASDE report as weather has delayed plantings throughout much of the U.S. Corn Belt. Argentine prices are also up, but continue at a substantial ($45/ton) discount to U.S. corn. Ukrainian prices have risen $10 to $275/ton.
TRADE CHANGES IN 2012/13
• U.S. corn is cut 2.5 million tons to 19.5 million on continued sluggish sales and shipments.
• Argentine corn is raised 2.0 million tons to 22.0 million on a strong pace of shipments.
• Brazilian corn is boosted 1.5 million tons to 26.5 million on larger production.
• Canadian corn is lowered 500,000 tons to 1.0 million tons due to the slow pace of shipments.
• Indian corn is raised 1.0 million tons to 4.0 million on strong early-season shipments and a larger crop.
• South African corn is cut 300,000 tons to 1.7 million on tighter exportable supplies.
• Ukrainian barley is slashed 300,000 tons to 2.2 million as competition from Russian new-crop supplies will likely limit late-season exports.
• Ukrainian sorghum is added as a new series with exports at 150,000 tons.
• EU corn is boosted 500,000 tons to 10.5 million based on the continued strong pace of import licenses.
• South Korean corn is boosted 500,000 tons to 8.0 million on stronger near-term feed demand.
• Mexican corn is lowered 500,000 tons to 7.5 million because of slack feed demand and slow purchases from the United States.
• Saudi corn is raised 200,000 tons to 2.1 million on higher demand.
• Venezuelan corn is boosted 500,000 tons to 2.5 million on a smaller crop.
• Russian barley is halved to 250,000 tons due to the sluggish pace of imports.
• U.S. sorghum is raised 200,000 tons to 300,000 on indications of shipments from Argentina