Oilseeds. World Markets and Trade. May 2013 May 11, 2013
Larger Soybean Supplies and Lower Prices Forecast for 2013/14
Record 2013 South American production, coupled with slower than expected exports and crush, will lead to record soybean supplies at the height of the US harvest in October. When combined with a forecast record U.S. crop, global soybean supplies could be 30 million tons greater than last year, far exceeding expected demand.
These supplies would lead to significant stock rebuilding in exporting countries. However, abundant global supplies would also be expected to exert downward pressure on prices. November Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) contract prices are currently down sharply from year-ago levels. With 5 months to go until harvest, the soybean price will ultimately depend on the size of the U.S. crop, China’s demand for beans, and global demand for soybean meal.
For 2013/14, prevailing competitive prices are expected to boost global soybean production to a record level. Global import demand is forecast to rise driven by China, the EU, and Indonesia.
Global trade for soybean meal and oil expands. U.S. soybean production is forecast at a record, and exports are expected to rise. U.S. season average farm price is projected at $10.50/bushel.
For 2012/13, global soybean production is down with smaller crops in Argentina and the EU. Global trade is lower as China’s imports are impacted by delays from South America. Global soybean meal imports are up led by stronger demand in several Asian countries. Global imports for soybean oil are also up slightly. The season-average U.S. farm price remains at a record $14.30/bushel.
U.S. export bids, FOB Gulf, in April averaged $560/ton, down slightly from the previous month. Prices have been supported by tight supplies and a slow recovery in Brazil’s exports. As of the week-ending May 2, U.S. soybean commitments (outstanding sales plus accumulated exports) to China totaled 21.8 million tons compared to 22.0 million a year ago. Total commitments to the world are 36.5 million tons, compared to 34.5 million for the same period last year.
2013/14 TRADE OUTLOOK
• Global soybean exports are forecast at a record 105.9 million tons, up 9.6 million driven by large exportable supplies and strong foreign demand led by China.
o Argentina’s exports are forecast at 12.0 million, up 2.9 million.
o Brazil’s exports are forecast at 41.5 million, up 5.2 million.
o U.S. exports are forecast at 39.5 million tons, up 2.8 million.
• China’s soybean imports are forecast at a record 69.0 million tons, up 10.0 million, replenishing lower carryin stocks and production as well as supporting a rise in demand for crush.
• EU soybean imports are forecast at 12.1 million tons, up 100,000 on expectations of improved crush and meal use.
• Global soybean meal trade is forecast to expand driven by demand in the EU and several Asian countries.
o EU imports are forecast at 20.8 million tons, up 800,000 tons; Indonesia at 3.6 million, up 100,000 tons; Thailand at 3.2 million, up 200,000 tons; Japan at 2.3 million, up 100,000 tons; and the Philippine at 2.1 million, up 100,000 tons.
• Global soybean oil trade grows slightly due to rising demand in China and India.
• Global rapeseed trade is up supported primarily by increased demand in China, the EU, and Japan as crush in these countries remain strong. Larger exportable supplies by Canada and Ukraine more than offset a decline in Australia.
• Global sunflowerseed trade is only slightly higher as much of the increases in production are processed into meal and oil in the producing countries, namely the EU, Ukraine and Russia.
• Global palm oil trade expands on abundant supplies and competitive prices.
o Indonesia’s exports are forecast at 21.0 million tons, up 900,000 tons. Malaysia’s exports remain at the same level of 17.2 million.
o India’s imports are forecast at 9.0 million tons, up 500,000 tons; Pakistan at 2.5 million tons, up 190,000 tons. Imports by China and the EU are also forecast to rise.
2012/13 TRADE OUTLOOK
• U.S. soybean meal exports are up 499,000 tons to 9.0 million reflecting the strong shipment pace to date. Soybean oil exports are down 45,000 tons to 998,000 tons on slowing sales.
• Argentina’s soybean exports are cut 1.3 million tons to 9.1 million on reduced supplies and a slow start in exports.
• Brazil’s soybean exports are lowered 400,000 tons to 36.4 million, and exports of meal are down 200,000 tons to 13.6 million as crush and shipments remain slower than expected.
• China’s soybean imports are reduced 2.0 million tons to 59.0 million reflecting continued slow shipments out of South America. Rapeseed meal imports are halved to 150,000 tons on weak purchases for October-March.
• EU soybean imports are boosted 200,000 tons to 12.0 million on expectations of stronger demand following price declines. Sunflowerseed meal imports are up 300,000 tons to 3.8 million on strong October-February shipments from Ukraine and Russia.
• Egypt’s palm oil imports are cut 400,000 tons to 1.1 million on a slower pace to date