Cotton. World Markets and Trade. Aug 2013 Aug. 13, 2013
U.S. Exports Dominated by China in 2012/13
In 2012/13, U.S. exports to China remained well above historical levels as that country’s domestic price support policy continued to fuel import demand, albeit at a lower level than the previous season. Paradoxically, the support policy continued to make China’s spinning sector less competitive, thereby boosting demand for cotton yarn from other countries. As a result, U.S. exports to other markets rebounded, notably to Turkey, Indonesia, Thailand, Vietnam, and Pakistan, which all saw growth of more than 50 percent.
For 2013/14, China’s policies are expected to lower its import demand, while U.S. exportable supplies are forecast sharply lower. Therefore, it remains to be seen if U.S. exports will continue to grow in other markets.
For 2013/14, the global outlook is largely unchanged. Production is slightly lower, largely due to decreases for China and the United States. Ending stocks are down marginally, primarily in China. U.S. exports are lower. The forecast for the season average price received by U.S. farmers is narrowed to 72-88 cents/pound.
The U.S. spot price and the A-Index continued to be supported by China’s reserve policy.
2013/14 TRADE OUTLOOK
• United States is down 400,000 bales to 10.6 million on a smaller projected crop.
• India is raised 450,000 bales to 6.25 million on strong early season demand.
• Uzbekistan is lowered 150,000 bales to 3.0 million on reduced crop prospects.
• Australia is up 100,000 bales to 4.3 million on weaker competition.
• Pakistan is raised 100,000 bales to 400,000 on greater supplies.
• Zimbabwe is lowered 100,000 bales to 300,000 on a smaller projected crop.
• Indonesia is raised 100,000 bales to 2.55 million on higher projected demand.
Trade Changes 2012/13
• United States is lowered 200,000 bales to 13.1 million on slow end-of-season shipments.
• India is raised 400,000 bales to 7.6 million on strong late season shipments.
• Zimbabwe is lowered 100,000 bales to 325,000 on a smaller crop.
• Indonesia is raised 100,000 bales to 2.5 million on strong late season imports.
• Hong Kong is raised 100,000 bales to 300,000 on larger transshipments.
• China is increased 325,000 bales to 20.3 million based on year-end data.
• Hong Kong is raised 100,000 bales to 400,000 on greater transshipments