India. Dairy and Products Annual. Oct 2013 Nov. 10, 2013
Fluid milk production will rise to 140.6 million tons in 2014 on a normal monsoon, increased demand for dairy products and rising consumer income. Strong farmgate prices and rising demand for value-added products are stimulating increased milk production. Growing private investment in dairy processing facilities is providing further impetus. The market for non-dry fat milk picked up in 2013 on strong prices and lift of the export ban in June 2012.
Post forecasts calendar year (CY) 2014 fluid milk production at a record 140.6 million tons, approximately 4.5 percent more than CY 2013 on the assumptions of a normal monsoon, increased demand for milk and dairy products and rising consumer income. CY 2013 fluid milk production has been marginally decreased and estimated at 134.5 million tons.
As a result of strong prices and increased export demand, Post forecasts CY 2014 Non Fat Dry Milk (NFDM) production to increase by 19,000 metric tons to 489,000 metric tons. CY 2013 production estimate for NFDM is revised higher at 470,000 metric tons. While most NFDM producers faced difficulties throughout 2012, market for NFDM has picked up in 2013 due to strong prices and export ban lifted in June 2012. Increased demand for reconstituted milk during the lean season (April-August) and consistent exports of NFDM are also the major drivers supporting increased production. The NFDM market is used as a way to establish a procurement system and maintain cash flow while slowly developing a marketing network for high-value perishable goods.
Following India’s rising production trend, Post forecasts CY 2014 production of combined butter and ghee (clarified butter) to increase approximately by 3 percent over CY 2013 to 4.88 million metric tons as a result of increase in income of an average Indian consumer leading to increased domestic demand. However, CY 2013 production estimates are marginally revised down to 4.74 million metric tons in order to match with the current market situation. (Note: Post Production, supply and demand (PSD) estimates for fluid milk, NFDM and butter have been revised to reflect the calendar year in lieu of the April/March marketing year)
India ranks first in the world in milk production and it has gone up from 53.9 million tons in 1990-91 to 127 million tons in 2011-12. The country accounts for around 17 percent of world’s total dairy production. As per Economic Survey Statistics, 2012-13, the per capita availability of milk has increased from 176 grams per day in 1990-91 to 290 grams per day in 2011-12 and this is comparable with the world per capita availability of milk at 289 grams per day for 2011. Strong farmgate prices supported by growth of the Indian economy and the rising domestic demand for value-added dairy products are factors contributing to increased production. Growing private investment in dairy processing facilities is also expected to provide further impetus to India’s milk production over the coming years. Farmers working directly with formal sector buyers have access to modern extension services, thus improving the herd size, management, feeding, fertility and veterinary care. Many of these extension service providers offer artificial inseminations further improving milk yields with new dairy cattle genetics. Artificial insemination services are expected to grow in the future, as the government of India continues to develop protocols for imported genetics products as well as encourage the growth of genetics services throughout the country.
The Indian Government is promoting milk production through the launch of intensive dairy development programs and strengthening of infrastructure for quality and clean milk production. It has devised a plethora of schemes for assistance to cooperatives and has also instituted a dairy entrepreneurship development scheme among other targeted programs for sustained progress of the dairy sector.
The National Dairy Plan was approved in February 2012 with a financial outlay of 416 million dollars (more than 20 billion rupees), and implementation period of six years from 2011-17 to meet the projected national demand of 150 million tons of milk from domestic production. The first phase of the plan is focused on 14 major milk producing states: Andhra Pradesh, Bihar, Gujarat, Haryana, Karnataka, Kerala, Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra, Odisha, Punjab, Rajasthan, Tamil Nadu, Uttar Pradesh and West Bengal. In India, these states account for over 90 percent of total milk production, 87 percent of the total buffalo population, and 98 percent of total forage production.
Three different entities implement the NDP: (a) The National Steering Committee provides policy and strategic support; (b) The Project Steering Committee approves plans and monitors progress; and (c) The Project Management Unit manages project implementation.
In 2012, the first phase of the NDP began with a set of initiatives that would be implemented over the next six years. These initiatives include:
a. Increasing productivity through scientific breeding and nutrition
b. Strengthening village-based milk procurement systems
c. Project management and learning
In addition to NDP, the Department of Animal Husbandry, Dairying and Fisheries (DAHD), Ministry of Agriculture, approved for the continuation of the following four schemes in financial year 2013-14 (April-March) during the 12th Five Year Plan:
1. Intensive Dairy Development Program (IDDP): This program is being implemented by the state dairy federations/district milk unions and has the following six objectives:
• Development of dairy cattle;
• Increase milk production by providing technical inputs services;
• Procurement, processing and marketing of milk in a cost effective manner;
• Ensure remunerative prices to milk producers;
• Generate additional employment opportunities; and
• Improve the social, nutritional and economic status of residents of comparatively more disadvantaged areas.
2. Strengthening infrastructure for quality & clean milk production : This program is being implemented through the state government by district cooperative milk unions/state level milk federations. The objectives of the program are:
• Build infrastructure to ensure milk quality from producer to consumer;
• Improve milking practices at the farmer level; and
• Build awareness on the importance of clean milk production amongst producers.
3. Assistance to Cooperatives: The GOI seeks to revitalize underperforming dairy cooperative unions at the district level and cooperative federations at the State level. The program is being implemented by the concerned district cooperative milk unions/state dairy federations.
4. Dairy Entrepreneurship Development Scheme: This program is being implemented through the National Bank for Agriculture and Rural Development (NABARD), and has the following objectives:
• Creation of modern dairy farms for the production of clean milk;
• Encourage heifer calf rearing for conservation and development of good breeding stock;
• Create structural changes in the unorganized sector to promote initial milk processing at the village level; and
• Upgrade technology to handle milk on a commercial scale.
From 2000-10, the GOI implemented a major program entitled “National Project for Cattle and Buffalo Breeding” (NPCBB) to improve local genetics. In order to complete spillover activities from this project, the NPCBB was allowed to continue activities under a new scheme called the “National Project on Bovine Breeding and Dairy.” This new scheme will be implemented through IFY 2014, and would supplement NDP activities. The goals include:
a. Improve cattle genetics by servicing 80% of adult females through an organized genetics management program (could utilize artificial insemination (AI) or natural insemination).
b. More privately self-employed AI practitioners.
c. Replace 20 million low producing nondescript cattle and buffaloes with genetically superior animals.
d. Increase rural self-employment opportunities and farm income.
e. Develop a modern AI network and AI delivery services that are easily accessible by farmers.
f. Establish an authority that can certify the authenticity of semen, semen stations, and AI bulls.
g. Conservation and genetic development of several indigenous cattle and buffalo breeds.
While breeding stock development continues to take place through the Ministry of Agriculture’s research programs, the GOI has also taken steps to allow the importation of high quality genetics. Currently, India allows imports of bovine semen subject to strict quality standards.
The GOI is also seeking to improve feeding practices and develop quality feeds and fodders in order to improve livestock productivity in India. Animal feeding in India typically relies on agricultural byproducts rather than grain-based feeds or specialized fodder. Use of capital-intensive feeds is growing in India, but still represents a small share of total feeding.
The National Mission for Protein Supplements was launched by GOI in Indian Financial Year 2011-12 with an allocation of more than USD 65 million. This mission undertakes activities to promote animal based protein production through livestock development, dairy farming, piggeries, goat rearing and fisheries in selected areas of the country. With the announcement of the NDP, the mission was strengthened and continued in Indian Financial Year 2013-14.
The National Dairy Development Board has very recently approved INR 300 million (USD 4.9 million) for rearing of improved sires in the state of Haryana.
The private sector also provides extension services including artificial insemination, veterinary care, and livestock management training. As genetic improvements become more available, it is expected that Indian producers will continue to use higher yielding foreign cattle/local breed hybrid crosses, often provided through their milk procurement company’s own extension services.
REGULATION OF MILK AND MILK PRODUCTS IN INDIA
The Food Safety and Standards Authority of India (FSSAI) regulates food safety in India. Dairy products are regulated under the Food Safety and Standards Regulations (FSSR), which replaced the Milk and Milk Products Order, 1992 on August 5, 2011. The FSSR applies equally to domestic and imported food, and requires that food business operators (including food processors, manufacturers, exporters, or importers) hold a license to carry out business in India. Individuals are not allowed to start or carry out any food business without a license from the FSSAI. The FSSR also prohibits the use of animal-derived rennet in cheeses.
While the FSSAI sets standards for the safety of domestically produced and imported milk and milk products into India, the Ministry of Agriculture’s DAHD is responsible for issuing sanitary permits for milk and milk product imports into India.
CY 2014 fluid milk consumption is set to match 2014 fluid milk production. Indian consumption of NFDM for CY 2014 is forecast at 425,000 metric tons, assuming increased exports and little imports from CY 2013. Due to an increased demand for reconstituted milk during the lean season (April-August) and consistent exports of NFDM, CY 2013 consumption estimates are revised lower at 420,000 metric tons. Butter consumption is forecast to match domestic production in 2014.
India is not only a leading milk producer but is also the largest consumer of milk in the world. According to industry estimates, the Indian dairy consumption market has grown at an annual rate of 6.8% over the last decade. The major factors driving growth in milk consumption are increased demand due to population growth, greater affordability due to increased disposable incomes, increasing awareness and availability of dairy through retail and foodservice segments and increased consumer interest in high protein diets. As per the National Sample Survey 66th Round, July 2009-June 2010 on the ‘Nutritional Intake in India’ and ‘Household Consumption of Various Goods and Services in India’, the contribution of milk and milk products to protein intake has risen from 3 percent in the lowest decile class to 15 percent in the highest in the rural sector and from 5 percent to 18 percent in the urban sector. The share of milk and milk products is 7.6 percent of consumer expenditure in rural areas as compared to 6.9 percent for urban areas.
Of the milk produced, 40 percent is used or consumed on-farm, and 60% is sold. Industry sources report that of milk sold 70% goes through the unorganized sector, and only 30% through the organized sector (16 percent by cooperatives and 14 percent by large private processors). According to a Rabobank report, India’s formal dairy market size is USD 10 billion and it is expected to grow at a CAGR of 13-15 percent. The formal market comprises cooperatives and private players who control the supply chain linkages. Little research is carried out on India’s vast informal dairy sector. The informal dairy market is largely fragmented and is a challenging environment due to its high-volume and low-margin business of indigenous products, the supply-constrained value-chain for quality products and insignificant trade opportunities due to ever-changing trade regulations. While market players indicate that the informal sector is slowly being overtaken by the formal sector, there are no hard data to verify in what proportions India’s dairy market is divided between the formal and informal sectors. Within the formal sector, private dairy players are investing in formalizing milk procurement and focusing on marketing value-added products. Some of the private dairy processing players in India have now become strong regional players and are aiming to become national players in the next few years.
Given strong prices, increasing production, growing urban population and consumer preferences and trust for branded milk products, it is possible that the unorganized sector’s market share is slowly decreasing.
The change in work culture (a growing number of women in the workforce) and demographics (smaller families and cosmopolitan culture) in the urban areas are driving the growth of many processed dairy products like milk powder, processed cheese, table butter, yogurts, flavored milk, ice-creams, cottage cheese (paneer), dairy whitener, probiotic drinks, ethnic dairy desserts, etc. According to Rabobank estimates, with the expansion of organized retail acting as a platform for driving value-added sales, the market share of value-added products will increase from 21 percent to 31 percent by 2019-20.
Cheese production in India is estimated to be growing at the rate of 10-12 percent in terms of volume and 16-17 percent in terms of value per year. Given this scenario, the processed dairy sector is poised for growth, although this will depend greatly on the stability of dairy supply as well as expansion of necessary infrastructure and the cold chain system. Cottage cheese (paneer) is considered a delicacy among the majority of Indian consumers. However, this is largely manufactured by the unorganized sector and many households also produce fresh cottage cheese for their own consumption.
The ice-cream industry in India is witnessing a booming growth rate of 12-15 percent annually. Per capita consumption of ice-cream is around 250 ml. Around 60 percent of India’s ice- cream market is accounted for by branded players. This presents a huge opportunity for organized players in the ice-cream industry. Several international players are entering into the market while the domestic players are trying to expand their operations.
Another segment where the country’s dairy sector is likely to witness growth is ultra high temperature (UHT) milk. The demand for UHT milk is growing though it has not been able to break the strong preference for daily consumption of fresh milk. UHT milk is an aspirational category of dairy product for many Indian consumers who do not want to compromise on quality and nutrition, and is likely to grow with the increase in the household income.
India consumes almost all of its domestic dairy production. India exports milk powders (casein), and occasionally ships smaller volumes of butter and other products to neighboring countries if favorable prices and demand occur. As the export bans have been lifted since June 2012, NFDM exports have increased and cleared the stocks out of 2012. A confidence has been built up in the minds of producers that the market will be well placed in the near future. The NFDM exports are mainly to the milk-deficient countries such as Bangladesh, Egypt, Algeria, Sri Lanka and Pakistan.
Given the above factors, Post forecasts CY 2014 NFDM exports at 60,000 metric tons and revises CY 2013 export estimates at 90,000 metric tons, reflecting increased demand and strong prices. Based on trade data, CY 2012 NFDM figures are revised to 37,000 metric tons. CY 2014 exports of butter are forecast at 5000 metric tons reflecting sustained domestic production. CY 2013 export figures are revised to 5000 metric tons to match the current visible trend in the market. CY 2012 export figures are revised to match the trade data.
Post forecasts zero imports of NFDM and butter in CY 2014 due to strong domestic production. Based on the current stocks available in CY 2013, the butter import figure is brought down to zero. CY 2012 import figures for NFDM and butter are revised to 14,000 and 8,000 metric tons respectively to match the trade data.
Historically, India has only imported milk powder and butter in limited quantities when it was believed that domestic production was insufficient or to help control inflation. As incomes and population grow, and consequently consumption, India may require additional supplies and imports of butter and NFDM, absent significant domestic production growth.
India allows imports of milk and milk products without quantitative limitations, although tariff rate quotas apply and an import permit is required. NFDM imported above the TRQ attracts a 60 percent basic duty and above quota butter oil imports are charged a 30 percent basic duty.
Although India allows milk and milk product imports, in most cases both import permits and sanitary certificates are required. For the import of livestock products (including milk and milk products), an applicant has to apply at least 30 days in advance with form A/B (Department of Animal Husbandry and Dairying). Exports of U.S. dairy products to India are effectively prohibited under India’s current dairy sanitary import protocol. Imported dairy products, like domestic dairy products, must adhere to all relevant food safety laws and quality standards. These include the quality standards set by the Bureau of Indian Standards (BIS) as well as the food safety standards covered in the Food Safety and Standards Regulation, 2011.
On November 21, 2012, India revised its tariff rate quota (TRQ) on dairy products falling under harmonized system (HS) code 040210 and 04022100 (SMP). Under the notified TRQ, India will permit imports up to 10,000 metric tons (MT) of SMP per fiscal year at a tariff rate of 15 percent. Quantities above 10,000 MT will incur a 60 percent tariff.
On November 22, 2012, the Government of India (GOI) lifted its ban on the export of dairy products falling under HS code 0402. This includes milk and cream, concentrated and/or sweetened milk and cream, whole milk powder, dairy whitener and infant milk foods. Industry sources state that this action will have little consequence on trade, as the majority of India’s dairy product exports are skim milk powder (SMP) and casein, both of which were permitted for export on June 8, 2012.
In March, 2013, the Department of Animal Husbandry, Dairying and Fisheries (DADF) of the Ministry of Agriculture, Government of India (GOI) posted revised guidelines on its website for the import and export of bovine genetics to India.
On June 11, 2013, the Food Safety and Standards Authority of India extended the import prohibition on milk and milk products from China for an additional year until June 22, 2014. The ban includes milk, milk products, chocolates and chocolate products, candies, confectionary, and food preparations made with milk or milk solids originating in China.
On June 11, the Government of India, Ministry of Commerce and Industry amended the Directorate General of Foreign Trade’s (DGFT) Import Policy 2012 and broadened the number of HTS chapters for which a certificate complying with the Ministry of Agriculture’s livestock import requirements will be required. The chapters now include dairy and other livestock products covered in chapters 2, 3, 4, 5, 16, and 21. The new policy condition specified in the amended notification requires that import of all livestock products shall be subject to a sanitary import permit issued by the Department of Animal Husbandry, Dairying and Fisheries, Government of India. The chapters including lactose (chapter 17) and some proteins (chapter 35) are however, not included in the amendment