OVERVIEW

Barely remaining a record, world corn production is lowered as smaller U.S. production more than offsets larger crops in India and the EU. Imports are slightly higher on a larger forecast for Canada (adjustments in Turkey and the EU are offsetting). The U.S. season-average farm prices for both corn and sorghum are raised this month with sorghum now above corn for the first time since 2006/07.

PRICES

Since the release of the December WASDE report, U.S. corn quotes rose, peaking at $191/ton and then fell to $180/ton by early January as prices continued to be pressured by large supplies and a strong dollar. As old-crop exportable supplies tighten, Argentine quotes remain $10 above U.S. Meanwhile, Black Sea rose to end about $9 above U.S. prices. Brazilian quotes were no longer available as of mid-December, notably earlier than in the previous few years when they ceased in February or as late as April.

TRADE CHANGES IN 2014/15

Selected Exporters

  • Australian barley is raised 200,000 tons to 4.5 million on larger-than-expected carryin and strong global demand.
  • U.S. sorghum is raised 1.0 million tons to 6.8 million, the highest level in more than 2 decades, on steady purchases by China.

Selected Importers

  • EU corn is boosted 1.0 million tons to 7.0 million on the pace of import licenses and greater wheat exports.
  • Turkish corn is slashed 1.0 million tons to 1.5 million due to the lower-than-expected pace of early-season shipments and imports of non-grain feed ingredients.
  • Canadian corn is boosted 300,000 tons to 1.0 million on strong early-season shipments from the United States.
  • Iranian and Tunisian barley are raised 200,000 tons each to 1.2 million and 300,000, respectively, on recent purchases.
  • Chinese sorghum is raised 1.2 million tons to 6.2 million on a continued strong pace of purchases and shipments.
  • Japanese sorghum is cut 200,000 tons to 1.0 million due to weak early-season shipments and purchases