OVERVIEW

Global production for 2014/15 is up slightly. Global trade is higher due to greater demand in China and stronger exports for Thailand, Burma, and Paraguay. Global consumption is revised higher, while stocks are marginally lower. U.S. production is virtually unchanged, and imports are raised.

Thai Rice Exports Climb to a New High

Thailand rice exports are forecast to reach a new high in 2014/15. The government is actively seeking export opportunities to reduce the massive stocks, accumulated under the discontinued paddy pledging scheme, which pushed down prices. Though a surge in exports in 2013/14 helped draw down stocks, exportable supplies remain large with the harvest of the main crop. Government-led sales are likely to drive Thai exports for the foreseeable future.

SELECTED TRADE CHANGES for 2014

  • Bangladesh's imports are up 150,000 tons to 850,000 on greater imports from India.
  • Burma's exports are up 100,000 tons to 1.6 million on trade to date.
  • India's exports are up 500,000 tons to 10.5 million on larger shipments to neighboring countries and Saudi Arabia.
  • Paraguay's exports are up 100,000 tons to 350,000 on stronger shipments to other South American countries.
  • Saudi Arabia's imports are up 125,000 tons to 1.5 million on larger shipments from India.
  • Sri Lanka's imports are up 130,000 tons to 300,000 on larger purchases from India.
  • U.S. exports are cut 100,000 tons to 3.0 million on trade to date.

SELECTED TRADE CHANGES for 2015

  • Burma's exports are boosted 150,000 tons to 1.6 million on expected strong shipments to the EU and countries in Asia.
  • China's imports are up 300,000 tons to a record 4.3 million to reflect recent agreements with Burma and Thailand.
  • Paraguay's exports are up 140,000 tons to a record 400,000 on a larger crop.
  • Thailand's exports are up 300,000 tons to a record 11.3 million as the government actively seeks market opportunities to reduce stocks