U.S. Commitments on Pace to Reach Current Export Forecast

Despite a lower U.S. export forecast, due to tighter supplies, shipments and sales at this point of the year are in a very similar position compared to last season. In 2012/13 and 2013/14, outstanding sales compared to marketing year total exports remain well below previous years when there were significant forward purchases due to concerns over tight global stocks and rising prices. In 2012/13 and 2013/14, China’s high stocks and a possible change in their reserve policy (to begin disposing of surpluses) have diminished concerns of rising prices. These factors have resulted in fewer forward purchases.


For 2013/14, the global outlook has beginning and ending stocks up slightly, primarily for India. The U.S. supply and demand forecast is virtually unchanged. The forecast for the average price received by U.S. farmers is unchanged this month.


The U.S. spot price and the A-Index continue to drift sideways awaiting developments in China’s reserve policy.


Major Exporters:

• India is up 500,000 bales to 7.5 million on larger exportable supplies.

• Brazil is cut 300,000 bales to 2.5 million on slower than expected shipments.

• Australia is lowered 200,000 bales to 4.0 million on greater competition from India.

• Uzbekistan is reduced 200,000 bales to 2.8 million on greater competition from India.

• Turkmenistan is lowered 100,000 bales to 850,000 on greater competition from India.

• Benin is down 100,000 bales to 450,000 on a smaller crop.

Major Importers:

• India is lowered 400,000 bales to 1.1 million on larger supply.

• Pakistan is cut 200,000 bales to 2.5 million on a larger crop.

• Vietnam is up 100,000 bales to 2.8 million on expected higher consumption