Robust Demand Outside China for U.S. Cotton

The dramatic drop in U.S. cotton exports to China for the first six months of the marketing year is partially offset by stronger demand from other countries. For example, in Southeast Asia import demand has shifted to the United States due to tightening exportable supplies from Southern Hemisphere countries, primarily Brazil and Australia. U.S. exports to Vietnam and Indonesia have jumped 43 and 82 percent, respectively. A smaller crop in Turkey has supported demand for additional U.S. supplies to meet rising consumption. Mexico has remained a steady export destination. Given that a large percentage of U.S. production is exported, and with such strong demand in these and other markets, ending stocks are forecast to tighten significantly.

Overview

For 2013/14, the global outlook is largely unchanged with production and ending stocks down slightly, primarily in China.

The forecast for the average price received by U.S. farmers is raised 1.5 cents per pound to 76 cents.

Prices

The U.S. spot price and the A-Index have continued to recover from the decline seen in October and
November due to tightening supplies outside China.

2013/14 TRADE OUTLOOK

Major Exporters:

• Australia is down 100,000 bales to 3.9 million on a smaller crop.

• Brazil is lowered 100,000 bales to 2.4 million on tighter supply.

• Greece is raised 100,000 bales to 1.15 million on a larger crop.

Major Importers:

• No changes