Brazil. Poultry and Products Semi-annual. Feb 2014 Feb. 18, 2014
Post forecasts broiler production to rebound by 3 percent in 2014 to 12.7 million metric tons after a small decline in production last year. Higher broiler production reflects current industry optimism. Exports are expected to increase, mostly due to depreciation of the Brazilian currency and increased domestic consumption, driven by higher demand from the food service industry in view of increased tourism related to the World Cup soccer matches in June-July.
Post forecasts broiler production to rebound by 3 percent in 2014. This increase will likely be driven by higher exports stimulated by the depreciation of the Brazilian currency and higher domestic demand, mostly from the food service industry in view of the World Cup Soccer matches during the months of June and July. Producer margins are expected to recover for the second consecutive year. The outlook for turkey production and exports is for moderate growth next year.
Poultry, Meat, Broiler
Broiler production is forecast to grow by 3 percent in 2014, as compared to Post’s revised downward production level in 2013. FAS Brasilia believes that the production estimate at 12.7 million metric tons in 2014 reflects the current expectations of producers to continue with a strategy to adjust supply and demand for boilers, and maintain their profit margins. Producers are likely to benefit from reduced production costs in 2014 assuming estimated record soybean and corn crops combined with higher exports. However, there are some constraints that could affect this year’s broiler production: the uncertainty with the economic outlook and rising inflation which could slow down the growth path of domestic consumption, the continued high level of indebtedness of Brazilian consumers, higher competition from beef and pork, and the on-going major dry spell in the Center-South that could affect the current soybean and corn crops, and provoke power shortages in some producing regions of the country, as well as higher energy costs.
Post revised 2013 broiler production to 12.3 million metric tons, a drop of nearly three percent from our last forecast, reflecting the problems faced by Brazilian producers with high feed costs during the first quarter of the year and their decision to adjust supply and demand combined with a decline in domestic demand and exports.
The cost of broiler production in 2013 dropped by 5.5 percent compared to the previous year, according to the Brazilian Agricultural Research Service of the Ministry of Agriculture, Livestock and Food Supply. Higher availability of soybean meal and corn at lower prices contributed to improved profit margins for broiler producers.
Post revised 2014 domestic consumption of broiler meat upward by three percent, reflecting processors optimism with higher demand from the food service industry in view of the World Soccer Championship games in June-July. However, higher broiler prices and the aforementioned economic uncertainties combined with competition from beef and pork could reduce such optimism.
Post forecasts 2014 broiler exports to increase by 3 percent, two percent lower from Post’s last forecast. The growth in exports is likely to be driven by depreciation of the Brazilian currency and higher sales of whole broilers, and chicken parts to China and Hong Kong, in respectively. Trade sources also expect greater broiler exports to the European Union, Egypt, Nigeria and Iraq. Brazilian exporters are trying to open markets in Myanmar, Pakistan and Nigeria. Market promotions are concentrated in major world fairs such as Gulfood (Dubai) and Sial (Paris). In addition, specific trade missions are concentrated in strategic markets, such as Japan. Higher tariffs in India and South Africa are a major constraint for exports to these countries.
Poultry, Meat, Turkey
Post revised downward the increase in turkey production in 2014, mostly driven by a slowdown in the growth path of domestic demand. This is expected to occur due to higher turkey prices and competition from alternative broiler products that meet the preference of consumers during major holidays, such as Christmas.
Turkey exports are estimated to rebound in 2014, although at a lower rate than Post’s forecast made last year. The increase in exports should be caused by the depreciation of the Brazilian currency. Exports are expected to increase to the European Union, Angola and Chile, among other markets in the Middle East