India. Grain Update. Mar 2014 March 12, 2014
On February 14, 2014, the Ministry of Agriculture forecast ICY 2013/14 grain production at 263.2 MMT, a record, and revised ICY 2012/13 grain production estimates. MY 2012/13 and MY 2013/14 rice, wheat, and corn production levels were raised on account of this new data.
On February 14, 2014, the Ministry of Agriculture released the Second Advance Estimate for the Indian Crop Year (ICY) 2013/14 (July/June). The report forecasts ICY 2013/14 grain production at 263.2 MMT, a record. Marketing year (MY) 2013/14 rice production is raised to 105 MMT, which includes kharif and rabi rice. MY 2012/13 rice and corn production estimates, as well as the MY 2013/14 wheat production forecast, were revised based on new ICY 2012/13 grain production data.
The Ministry of Agriculture Forecasts Record Food Grain Production
On February 14, 2014, the Ministry of Agriculture (MOA) released the Second Advance Estimate for Production of Food Grains for the Indian Crop Year (ICY) 2013/14 (July/June). The report forecasts ICY 2013/14 grain production at 263.2 MMT, a record. This figure includes rice (106.2 MMT), wheat (95.6 MMT), corn (23.3 MMT), and pulses (19.8 MMT). Good monsoons and overall favorable weather conditions from July 2013 to March 2014 boosted yields and area for major grains.
The MOA ICY 2013/14 grain production forecast includes:
i. Rice, corn, sorghum, millet, and pulses, including kharif (harvested from October to December) and rabi crops (harvested from March to May).
ii. MY 2014/15 wheat and barley crops (harvested from March to May).
The MOA will further revise the ICY 2013/14 estimate in May (third advance estimate) and July (fourth advance estimate) using state government data on acreage and yields for both kharif and rabi crops. The MOA will likely finalize the ICY 2013/14 food grain production estimate in February 2015.
MY 2013/14 Rice Production Raised on Strong Kharif Rice Crop
MY 2013/14 rice production is raised to 105 MMT (kharif and rabi rice production are forecast at 92 MMT and 13 MMT) on strong kharif rice yields due to good weather. Some industry sources believe that the MOA ICY 2013/14 forecast for rabi rice production (14.2 MMT) is too high due to expectations of average yields and competing acreage. Rabi rice planting is under progress and likely to continue from March to April.
MY 2013/14 corn production is unchanged at 23 MMT, slightly below the MOA ICY 2013/14 forecast of 23.3 MMT. Post believes the 2nd advance estimate of rabi corn production (6.4 MMT, a record) is too high based on Post observations and industry sources. The MY 2014/15 wheat production forecast is unchanged.
MY 2012/13 Rice, Corn, and Wheat Production Up on Higher Yields
MOA published the final ICY 2012/13 grain production estimate, up 1.8 MMT to 257.1 MMT on higher state government yield data for rice, wheat, and corn (data encompasses both kharif (fall harvested) and rabi (spring harvested) crops). Post increased MY 2012/13 rice and corn production, as well as MY 2013/14 wheat production, due to new state government figures