Cotton: World Markets and Trade. Mar 2014 March 12, 2014
World Stocks Continue to Climb
USDA announced the world, China, and United States cotton outlook for 2014/15 on February 21 at its Agricultural Outlook Forum. The following is a brief summary:
World ending stocks are projected to rise, for the fifth consecutive year, to a record 100.5 million bales despite relatively strong growth in consumption and a marginal increase in production. China, contrary
to the previous three seasons, is forecast to account for only a fraction of the expansion and expected to begin reducing the amount of cotton held by its state reserve. However, nearly half the world’s stocks will remain in China’s state reserve and effectively off the market. Outside of China, stocks are expected to grow at the highest rate in five years due to a fall in net exports.
World trade is projected down 4 percent as China’s imports are forecast lower as policy changes are expected to reduce their state reserve stocks.
U.S. exports are forecast to rise only 5 percent despite sharply higher production. Stronger demand from growth in spinning outside of China is expected to be largely offset by falling demand from China.
The A-index and U.S farm prices are projected to decline.
Global cotton production is virtually unchanged. Ending stocks are slightly higher on marginally lower consumption. U.S. exports are higher, while ending stocks are down. The season average farm price is raised.
The U.S. spot price and the A-Index showed little movement as the markets await more information about changes to China’s reserve policy.
2013/14 TRADE OUTLOOK
• United States is raised 200,000 bales to 10.7 million on recent strong sales and shipments.
• Australia is revised down 100,000 bales to 3.8 million on tight end of local season stocks.
• Uzbekistan is lowered 100,000 bales to 2.7 million due to stronger mid-season competition.
• Pakistan is cut 500,000 bales to 2.0 million on weaker demand.
• Bangladesh is revised up 200,000 bales to 3.9 million on stronger consumption.
• Turkey is raised 150,000 bales to 4.25 million on greater demand.
• Vietnam is up 100,000 bales to 2.9 million on higher mill use.