Report Highlights:

The Government of Cote d’Ivoire (GOCI) made remarkable efforts to boost local rice production and expects to reach self-sufficiency of 2.0 million tons milled rice by 2020. Milled rice production increased from 0.9 million tons in MY 2012/13 to 1.2 million in MY 2013/14, up 22 percent. Post estimates milled rice production for MY 2013/14 to reach 4.8 million tons in selected countries representing an 11 percent increase compared to previous year. For MY 2013/14, imports decreased 4 percent due to an increase in local rice production increase and large stocks from the previous year. This trend is expected to continue next year.

List of Acronyms
CFP Cochran Fellowship Program
ECOWAS The Economic Community of West African States
FAO/GWIEWS Food and Agricultural Organization/ the Global Information and Early Warning System
GOBF Government of Burkina Faso
GOCI Government of Cote d’Ivoire
GOM Government of Mali
GOS Government of Senegal
LDC Louis Dreyfus Commodities
MCC The Millennium Challenge Corporation
NERICA The New Rice for Africa
PRACAS Accelerated Program for Agriculture in Senegal
PSE The Plan Senegal Emergent
RFI Radio France International
SAED Societe Nationale d'Amenagement et d'Exploitation des Terres du Delta du Fleuve Senegal et des Vallees du Fleuve Senegal
SNDR Revised National Development Strategy for the Rice Sector in Cote d’Ivoire
USAID U.S. Agency for International Development
USDA U.S. Department of Agriculture

I. Executive Summary 

Despite delayed rains and prolonged dry spells that affected MY 2013/14 (Oct 2013-Sept 2014) cropping season in most selected countries (West African countries included in this report: Burkina Faso, Chad, Cote d’Ivoire, Gambia, Guinea-Bissau, Guinea-Conakry, Mali, Mauritania, Niger, Senegal and Togo ), milled rice production continues to increase. Post and FAO/GVIEWS estimate that production will increase by 11 percent compared to the previous year and reach 4.8 million tons in MY 2013/14 with a growth of 22 percent for Cote d’Ivoire, 4 to 5 percent for Burkina Faso and Mali, while Senegal production declines by 9 percent. 

For the previous marketing year (MY 2012/13), milled rice production was estimated at 4.3 million tons representing a 20 percent increase compared to the previous year with Cote d’Ivoire and Burkina Faso increasing respectively by 79 percent and 34 percent in one year. 

This confirms that Cote d’Ivoire milled rice production has been progressing over the three past years due to the implementation of the Revised National Rice Strategy for the period 2012-2020 which aims to reach 2.0 million tons of milled rice. 

Post forecasts rice production for MY 2014/15 to reach 5 million tons representing a 5 percent increase compared to MY 2013/14. 

Rice imports for MY 2013/14 are forecasted to decrease 4 percent compared to the previous year (3.6 million tons). Government of Cote d’Ivoire anticipates reducing imports by 30 percent due to local production increase while Post believes that imports may decrease 13 percent. 

From September 30 to October 14, 2013, 11 West African fellows from Senegal (8), Burkina Faso (2) and Cote d’Ivoire (1) participated in a USDA Cochran fellowship program in rice production & technology. USDA - Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) provided oversight while the program was designed by the University of California, Davis. Activities took place in South Carolina, Louisiana and California. This training complemented efforts made by USAID‘s Economic Growth Project (PCE) and USDA-FAS to improve the rice sector and increase local rice production in Senegal and the sub region.

II. Production 

MY 2012/13 reached 4.3 million tons which represents a 20 percent increase compared to the previous year, most of which was due to Cote d’Ivoire’s increased milled rice production, a whopping 79 percent. 

Despite the fact that most countries were affected by a bad cropping season with delayed rains and prolonged dry spells, Post and FAO/GVIEWS estimated MY 2013/14 milled rice production at 4.8 million tons representing an 11 percent increase compared to the year before. Rice production could have been much higher with better weather.

A. Burkina Faso

MY 2012/13 milled rice production reached 210,000 tons representing 34 percent increase compared to the previous year.

Post estimates milled rice production for MY 2013/14 to increase 5 percent (220,000 tons) compared to previous year.

B. Cote d’Ivoire

The implementation of the Revised National Rice Strategy covering 2012-2020, with the goal of producing 2.0 million tons of milled rice is making good progress.

MY 2012/13 milled rice production reached 0.9 million tons, a 79 percent increase compared to the previous year. For MY 2013/14, the production is forecasted to reach 1.2 million tons a 22 percent increase compared to MY 2012/13.

To boost production, GOCI, through the Revised National Rice Strategy program, encouraged farmers to use more.

- agricultural equipment and improved seeds;

- small and medium size processing units in production sites;

- modern processing companies with a production capacity of 5 to 12 tons per hour; and

- private companies investing in the sector i.e. Louis Dreyfus Commodities (LDC); Export Trading Group, and Novel. LDC forecast that it will produce 50,000 tons of paddy rice in MY 2014/15

C. Mali

Despite less yields in MY 2012/13 because of abundant rains and less use of fertilizer, milled rice production reached 1.2 million tons due to more area planted.

For MY 2013/14, milled rice production is forecasted to reach 1.3 million tons regardless of erratic rains, extended dry spells, and civil war in the northern part of the country which impacted overall cereal production by a decline of 18 percent.

D. Senegal

MY 2012/13 milled rice production reached 320,000 tons, representing a reduction of 38 percent from the Government of Senegal (GOS) initial target of 443,000 tons. 

For MY 2013/14, GOS anticipates producing 9 percent less than the previous year (290,000 tons) due to a late start of the rainy season which hampered replanting seeds and therefore decreased area planting. Most farmers switched to other crops such as peanut and maize.

Post anticipates 350,000 tons of milled rice production for MY 2014/15 if the rainy condition is favorable. With such slow progress, Post believes that it may be difficult to reach GOS’s self-sufficiency goal of 1 million tons milled rice by 2017. 

In the meantime, GOS developed a new program called Plan Senegal Emergent Project (PSE) launched by President Sall in 2013 to boost agriculture and industry and reach 7 percent economic growth for the upcoming decade. In addition, a new program aiming to boost the acceleration of agriculture – Accelerated Program for Agriculture in Senegal (PRACAS)- includes rice as an important component. It plans to both increase rain fed rice production and decrease irrigated rice production by 20 percent. 

The Millennium Challenge Corporation (MCC) is a 5 years MCC project which started in 2010 with a $540 million grant. The project aims to help GOS improve infrastructure in the Delta region (northeast of Saint Louis, extending to Richard Toll/Ross Bethio) by upgrading canals, pumping/water-distribution, and roads. The project will support the development of 39,000 hectares of irrigated land by increasing the volume of irrigation water, and repair and widen 120 kilometers of road, including a new 150 m bridge which will reduce problems of drainage and flooding in the North.

III. Consumption

Post estimates milled rice consumption in selected countries at 7.7 million tons for MY 2012/13, and 8.1 million for MY 2013/14 which represents a 5 percent increase.

Most West African countries have established programs to boost rice production and increase rice consumption. By boosting local production, governments aim to rely less on imports to satisfy demand and therefore increase food security.

For MY 2014/15, post estimates consumption at 8.4 million tons which represents a 4 percent increase compared to MY 2013/14.

A. Burkina Faso

Post estimates MY 2013/14 rice consumption at 520,000 tons. Local milled rice production may only cover 42 percent of the demand. For MY 2013/14, per capita consumption is estimated at 27 kg/person/year. 

Rice consumption is continuing to increase over the years and the New Rice for Africa (NERICA) rice variety is the preferred rice variety.

B. Cote d’Ivoire

With the boom in local rice production, post estimates MY 2012/13 rice consumption at 1.9 million tons representing a 36 percent increase compared to the previous year. Rice is the most popular staple followed by corn and wheat. 

For MY 2013/14, milled rice consumption is forecasted to reach 2.0 million tons with a per capita consumption of 77 kg per habitant per year.

C. Mali

Malians milled rice consumption remains stable in MY 2013/14 compared to MY 2012/13. It could reach 1.4 million tons milled rice, a mere two percent increase. Per capita consumption is estimated at 76 kg per habitant per year.

D. Senegal

Post estimates Senegalese rice consumption at 1.4 million tons for MY 2013/14. The Senegalese government hopes to boost local rice production to reach 1 million tons of milled rice by 2017. Therefore, local rice consumption is increasing especially in the big cities (i.e. Dakar and Thies). However, local production is far from satisfying the demand. The acceptance rate of local rice is increasing slowly, but Post believes that rice processors should continue working on improving the quality besides the efforts that have been made lately.

IV. Trade

Post believes that milled rice imports for MY 2013/14 will decrease 4 percent compared to MY 2012/13 probably due to local rice production decline.

Post estimates Cote d’Ivoire rice imports would decrease 13 percent while GOCI estimated rice imports to decrease 30 percent during MY 2013/14.

In Senegal, Post estimates MY 2013/14 rice imports to increase 10 percent compared to the previous year.

Post believes that rice imports will continue to decrease even more in MY 2014/15 (4 percent) in MY 2014/2015 as production levels increase.

A. Burkina Faso

MY 2013/14 rice imports are estimated at 280, 000 tons representing 30 percent decrease compared to previous year.

B. Cote d’Ivoire

In MY 2012/13, rice imports reached 1.1 million tons. Post estimates MY 2013/14 rice import to decrease 13 percent (1.0 million tons) due to an increase in local rice production while GOCI indicates that rice imports decrease 30 percent from MY2012/13 to MY 2013/14. GOCI objective’s is to increase rice production in order to decrease rice imports and ensure food security. 

In MY 2012/13, the top rice exporters to GOCI were Vietnam (34 percent), Thailand (230 percent), and India (24 percent). 

At the beginning of the MY 2013/14 (Oct- Dec 2013), Vietnam continues to be the top supplier in rice for Cote d’Ivoire with 61 percent of the market share followed by Thailand (26 percent) and India (11 percent).

C. Mali

Mali rice imports is estimated by Post at 140, 000 tons for MY 2012/13. However, it is estimated to increase by 7 percent in MY 2013/14 due to a small rice production increase compared to previous year.

D. Senegal

Post estimate MY 2012/13 at 1.0 million tons of milled rice representing 17 percent decrease compared to the previous year. Only 40 tons were exported to Mali in MY 2012/13. The top rice suppliers were India with 63 percent of the market share followed by Brazil (10 percent) and Thailand (3 percent). Only 612 tons were imported from the U.S.

For MY 2013/14, Post estimates rice imports to increase by 100,000 tons due to a reduction in local rice production the same year.

For MY 2013/14, India continues to be the top supplier with 61 percent of the market share (134,000 tons) from October 2013 to December 2013 followed by Thailand (11 percent) and Brazil (14 percent)

Indian rice is cheaper than other supplier countries and its quality is ordinary. The retail price for 50 kg bag is $25 compared to $42 for fragrant rice. Senegalese importers continue to buy from India which offers a better price even though the wealthier population prefers fragrant rice. Local rice is 12 percent more expensive than imported Indian rice ($28 for 50 kg bag).

V. Policy

Even though the market is liberalized, respective governments have the mandate to regulate the market. It was the case in Cote d’Ivoire and Senegal in 2012 when rice prices increased, and population could barely afford it. Cote d’Ivoire even removed custom duties for three months.

A. Cote d’Ivoire

GOCI is determined to achieve self-sufficiency in rice by producing 2.0 million tons of milled rice by 2020. A real rice offensive is underway in the country. Many actors including the private sector, local and regional banks, and development partners are investing in the country. In addition, the Radio France International (RFI) reported that The Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) donated $13 million to boost rice production. GOCI plans to ensure food security and start exporting rice by 2016.

Post thinks that GOCI is on the way to reach self-sufficiency based on rice production increase (22 percent) from MY 2012/13 to MY 2013/14.

B. Senegal

GOS has the responsibility to regulate the market for many staple foods such as rice, sugar, cooking oil etc…In April 2012, GOS fixed maximum prices for rice sold in the local market in reaction to the international price increase. Today, prices are lower than maximum prices fixed by the GOS in 2012. 

Government of Senegal has a national policy to increase local rice production to reach self-sufficiency at 1 million tons of paddy rice by 2017. The director of the SAED (Senegal River Delta Development and Exploitation Company has a state mandate for water management and can allocate land for family-run farms and other actors wishing to make investments) newly nominated in October 2013 right after a Cochran training program in rice production and technology has the ambition to increase local rice production in the country. A Senegalese private company specialized in leasing and rural equipment invested more than $14 million to buy 100 tractors and 50 harvesters. SAED signed an agreement with that company which may better assist farmers to increase rice production the delta valley. 

VI Marketing

A. Burkina Faso

GOBF play a strategic role in the distribution and promotion of rice through the SONAGESS which is the National Company that manages stock security. It buys paddy rice from farmers.
B. Senegal

Local rice is well represented in the capital Dakar. It is sold by bag of 50 kg or 25kg by using rice importers and wholesalers distribution channels. 

In the market, fragrant rice is also sold in small package of 1 kg ($1.6) and 5 kg ($8 - $9) in markets and supermarkets. Customers who cannot afford to buy 50 kg bag ($42) of fragrant rice may only buy small packages on special occasions