Citrus: World Markets and Trade. Jan 2014 April 14, 2014
Global orange production for 2013/14 is forecast to rise 5 percent from the previous year to 51.8 million metric tons as increases in Brazil, China, and the European Union (EU) more than offset the continued drop in the United States. Trade is forecast to reach a record level on stronger demand and increases in available supplies.
United States production is forecast down 11 percent to 6.7 million tons. In Florida, where 95 percent of the oranges are used for processing orange juice, dry weather early in the year and citrus greening has caused severe fruit drop (expected highest droppage in over 50 years). In California, where most of the oranges are used for the fresh market, production is down 5 percent and as a result of the December freeze, damaged fruit will be sent to be juiced. Exports are forecast down 6 percent on reduced exportable supplies.
Brazil’s production is forecast up 8 percent to 17.8 million tons based on higher yields and favorable weather. Nearly all of the increase is being used for processing, keeping fresh consumption flat. Although by far the world’s largest producer, less than one percent is exported.
EU production is forecast up over 10 percent to 6.6 million tons due to favorable weather. Imports are forecast up slightly with South Africa and Egypt the largest suppliers. Last year imports from South Africa were banned from November 28, 2013 to the end of December due to multiple detections of citrus black spot.
China’s production is forecast to grow nearly 10 percent to 7.6 million tons, keeping pace with rising fresh consumption and processing. China is forecast to remain the largest fresh consumer accounting for over 20 percent of global consumption. Aiming to continue to expand production, new varieties are being planted to harvest both earlier and later in the season.
Mexico’s production is forecast at 3.9 million tons, down 100,000 tons. With an increase in fresh consumption, fruit for processing fell as prices for domestic fresh oranges are competitive. Mexico’s trade for fresh oranges is negligible.
Egypt’s production is forecast at a record 2.6 million tons, up 5 percent on favorable weather and an upswing in area harvested as new trees start to bear fruit. Exports are forecast to rise 5 percent as additional fruit is available to meet growing demand from the EU, Saudi Arabia, and Ukraine.
South Africa’s production is forecast to increase slightly to 1.5 million tons. As the world’s largest exporter, South Africa accounts for over 25 percent of world trade and is forecast at a record 1.2 million tons. The EU and Russia represent half its market.
Morocco is forecast to have a significant jump in production, following a drought-impacted crop, to a record 1.0 million tons. Along with favorable weather, area increased as a result of the government citrus policy that includes support payments for new plantations, subsidies for irrigation equipment, and crop insurance for growers. With high demand and a return of exportable supplies exports, are forecast to more than double to 160,000 tons.
Global orange juice production (65 Brix equivalent) for 2013/14 is forecast at 2.0 million metric tons, up 6 percent from the previous year with growth in Brazil more than offsetting declines in the United States and Mexico. Global exports and consumption are relatively flat with stocks dropping again (lowest in 4 years).
Brazil’s production is forecast up 18 percent to 1.2 million tons on higher crushing yields. However, exports from the world’s largest producer are forecast to exceed production to meet demand in the EU and US. Stocks are reduced, accordingly.
United States production is forecast down nearly 12 percent to 550,000 tons as projected orange droppage in Florida (due in part to greening) is expected to be the highest in over 50 years. Consumption and exports are down as a result of the decline, while ending stocks remain around the same level as the last three years.
Mexico’s production is forecast to drop over 25 percent to 100,000 tons as significantly more fresh oranges are forecast to be consumed rather than processed as prices for domestic fruit are competitive. Consequently, exports are forecast to decline more than 25 percent due to reduced available supply. Stocks are forecast to return to trend after dropping to zero 2 years earlier due to high international demand.
EU production is forecast to climb 12 percent to 100,000 tons as more fruit is available for processing. Imports remain flat with Brazil and the United States the primary suppliers.
China’s production is forecast to increase by one third to a record 60,000 tons, with more fruit being used for processing. Higher production will primarily serve the domestic market as orange juice grows in popularity.
Global production for 2013/14 is forecast at a record 26.0 million metric tons, up over 5 percent from last year on increases in China and Morocco. Fresh consumption continues to grow with high demand and increased supplies. Exports are forecast up on rising demand.
United States production is forecast to increase slightly to a record 674,000 tons with imports and fresh consumption flat. This forecast is based on the January USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service Crop Production Report which indicated that the December freeze damaged fruit would be processed into juice.
China’s production is forecast to jump 1.2 million tons, to a record 18.2 million on favorable weather and higher yields. China represents 70 percent of global production and 35 percent of global exports. Rising fresh consumption is forecast to almost keep pace with production. Exports are forecast to grow with the increased available supply and stronger international demand.
The EU’s production, trade, and consumption remain virtually unchanged.
Japan’s production is forecast to grow 10 percent, to 930,000 tons as the crop is considered an “on-year” in the natural production cycle. Fresh consumption is forecast up on increased available supplies, while imports remain at 20,000 tons.
Turkey’s production is forecast at 880,000 tons, up only slightly. Exports are forecast to surge nearly 20 percent to 480,000 tons on stronger demand and less consumption due to increased availability of other citrus.
Production in Morocco is forecast to rebound to a record 850,000 tons on favorable weather and expanded area. Area increased as a result of the government citrus policy that includes support payments for new plantations, subsidies for irrigation equipment, and crop insurance for growers. Exports are reduced due to reportedly lower quality product.
Global production for 2013/14 is forecast to rise over 5 percent to 6.2 million tons as growth in China more than offsets declines in the United States and South Africa. Global exports are forecast to increase slightly as consumption grows 7 percent on high demand in China.
For 2013/14, global production is forecast down 4 percent to 6.0 million tons, as a drastic drop in Argentina caused by frost damage more than offsets increases in the EU and Turkey. However, global exports are forecast to grow nearly 5 percent as Turkey and the EU meet the rising demand