Oilseeds. World Markets and Trade. Apr 2014 April 14, 2014
Record New Crop U.S. Soybean Sales Reflect Strong Demand
New crop U.S. soybean plantings will begin soon, but already 7.0 million tons of beans have been sold through the end of March. Forward sales of such volumes are usually not reached until late April or early May. Likewise, sales of soybean meal, processed from the new crop, have totaled a record 1.2 million tons. Forward sales of this magnitude are generally not reached until in late July or August. Whether record forward sales translate to record exports would depend on various factors in the coming months.
This unprecedented pace is indicative of buyers’ interest in securing supplies early in response to current market dynamics in exporting countries. Argentina’s exports of soybeans and meal remain slow, and Brazil has prioritized loading soybeans over meal in order to mitigate shipping delays.
With a larger crop indicated in USDA’s Prospective Plantings report, the United States is poised to have ample supplies to meet strong foreign demand for both soybeans and meal.
Global soybean production is lower with reductions in Brazil and India only partly offset by an increase in Uruguay. Soybean trade is up driven primarily by the United States. U.S. imports are raised reflecting trade to date and prospective large shipments from South America this summer. U.S. exports are boosted on record shipments to date. With stronger exports and tighter stocks, U.S.
season average farm prices are raised.
U.S. export bids, FOB Gulf, in March averaged $561 per ton, up $21 from last month. Continued strong foreign demand and tightening stocks are contributing to higher prices.
As of the week ending March 27, U.S. soybean commitments (outstanding sales plus accumulated exports) to China totaled 27.8 million tons compared to 21.3 million a year ago. Total commitments to the world are 44.2 million tons, compared to 35.0 million for the same period last year.
2013/14 TRADE OUTLOOK
• United States
o Soybean exports are boosted 1.4 million tons to 43.0 million reflecting record shipments to date.
o Soybean imports are up 817,000 tons to a record 1.8 million on trade through February and prospective large shipments from South America.
o Soybean exports are cut 500,000 tons to 44.5 million on a smaller crop.
o Soybean meal exports are cut 220,000 tons to 13.8 million on reduced crush.
• Canada’s rapeseed exports are up 200,000 tons on strong demand from China and the United States.
o Rapeseed imports are up 300,000 tons to a record 3.7 million on demand for crush.
o Palm oil imports are cut 200,000 tons to 6.4 million on slower imports to date.
o Fish meal imports are lowered 200,000 tons to 1.1 million reflecting reduced supplies in Peru.
• European Union
o Soybean meal exports are cut 100,000 tons to 600,000 due to stronger use.
o Sunflower seed oil imports are cut 230,000 reflecting a slower pace to date.
• India’s palm oil imports are cut 250,000 tons to 8.8 million on slower import pace to date.
• Indonesia’s palm oil exports are cut 600,000 tons to 20.7 million on stronger domestic use.
• Japan’s soybean meal imports are cut 230,000 tons to 2.0 million on reduced feed use.
o Palm oil imports are slashed 875,000 to 800,000 tons and exports are lowered 200,000 to 17.3 million on a slower pace to date and sharply lower trade with Indonesia.
o Palm kernel meal exports are up 150,000 tons to 2.4 million on the pace of trade to date.
• Peru’s fish meal exports are down 250,000 tons to 1.1 million on smaller catch.
• Russia’s sunflowerseed oil exports are up 100,000 tons to1.6 million reflecting exports to date.
• Turkey’s soybean imports are lowered 100,000 tons to 1.1 million and soybean meal imports are up the same volume to 1.1 million reflecting trade to date.
• Ukraine’s sunflowerseed oil exports are lowered 300,000 tons to 3.8 million on a slower pace.
• Uruguay’s soybean exports are up 310,000 tons to 3.4 million on larger supplies