Report Highlights: 

Dry weather conditions continue to reduce yields for all grain production in Turkey. Post has reduced the March forecast for wheat from 15.8 million metric tons (MMT) to 15 MMT; durum wheat from 1.9 MMT to 1.5 MMT; barley from 5.8 MMT to 4 MMT; and corn from 4.9MMT to 4.5 MMT.

Wheat 

Wheat harvest started in Cukurova region. The region was one of the most drought affected region. The yield is around 180-300 kilograms/decare (kg/da), which is typically 450-700 kg/da in normal years. 

There are also disease problem observed in Central Anatolia. Due to dry and hot weather conditions the rate of suni bug prevalence increased from 1 percent to 5-6 percent in Central Anatolia, especially in Ankara and Eskisehir. Moreover, in the Thrace region, which has one of the best planting conditions at the moment, wheat is experiencing problems with lodging. 

In south east Anatolia, mainly in Diyarbakir, late winter kill damaged the wheat and barley production. 

The largest impact of the drought was to durum wheat. Combined with a planting area decrease, durum wheat production is forecasted at 1.4 million metric tons (MMT), down 400,000 metric tons (MT) from the April Post forecast of 1.9 MMT. Traders have purchased 600,000 MT of durum wheat, mainly from Mexico, for delivery in July. 

Traders are very concerned about the upcoming harvest. Russian traders are telling them that there will be very good harvest in the Southern part of Russia and that prices will decline in June. Most traders are waiting at the moment. 

Turkey increased the inward process regime certificate price from 80 U.S. dollars (USD) to 100 USD/MT. Durum wheat processors and pasta producers have an extensive amount of inward process regime certificates for about 1 MMT. This allows them to import 1 MMT of durum wheat without duty. The price of the durum wheat inward process regime certificate is 20 USD/MT. 

Overall wheat production is forecast at 15 MMT. 

Barley 

Barley production is forecast at 4 MMT. Barley yield will decline severely. Barley in Ankara, Konya, Corum, Yozgat and Sivas region was most affected by the drought. Moreover, barley in Diyarbakir and in some parts of Adiyaman and Sanliurfa was damaged from dry weather conditions. 

Corn 

The Cukurova region planted first crop corn and has given first irrigation. Weather conditions are very suitable for corn production at the moment. However, farmers in the region are very concerned about the availability of water later in the season. The water management office hasn’t promised them availability to water. Corn planting area was increased in the Cukurova region. Corn production is forecast at 4.5 MMT