Report Highlights: 

Brazilian orange crop for 2014/15 is projected at 425 million boxes, up almost 6 percent from the previous year. Total frozen concentrate orange juice (FCOJ) production is projected stable at 1.078 million metric tons. FCOJ ending stocks are forecast at 160,000 metric tons, 65 Brix, down 139,000 metric tons from last season due to projected higher exports compared to production.

FRESH ORANGES

Production

General 

Total Brazilian orange crop for MY 2013/14 (July/June) is projected at 425 Millon 40.8-kg boxes (MBx), a 6 percent increase compared to the current crop (MY 2012/13). 

The commercial area of the state of Sao Paulo and the western part of Minas Gerais should produce 310 MBx, down 10 MBx from previous figure. The crop should result mainly from the first blossoming, however a second blossoming in the majority of the growing areas will also partially contribute to the total output. Note that this figure takes into account the four major varieties of citrus used for processing orange juice (Hamlin, Pera Rio, Natal and Valencia) plus a limited volume of other citrus varieties such as Lima, Bahia, Murcorte and others which are used for processing juice. 

Information was collected from a field trip to the Sao Paulo citrus belt in May 2014, government sources, state departments of agriculture, growers’ associations, orange juice processors, consultants, traders, research institutions, and others. 

Production for MY 2013/14 from other states is projected at 115 MBx, according to updated information provided by the Brazilian Geography and Statistics Institute (IBGE). 

The National Supply Company (CONAB) did not release the first orange crop survey for 2014/2015 yet. The Sao Paulo State Institute of Agricultural Economics (IEA) released the February 2014 survey for the 2014/15 orange crop in the State of Sao Paulo at 291 MBx, including both commercial and non-commercial areas based on data collected in February 2014. Note that IEA take into account the entire state of Sao Paulo and all varieties of oranges, while ATO estimates follow the citrus industry methodology which includes the commercial area of the state plus the western part of Minas Gerais and the four major citrus varieties for juice processing. IEA reports that the state of Sao Paulo orange tree inventory is estimated at 191 million trees (168 million bearing trees and 23 million non-bearing trees). 

Last May, the Brazilian Orange Juice Exporters Association (CitrusBr) released the estimate for the 2014/15 orange crop in the Sao Paulo citrus commercial belt which also includes the western part of Minas Gerais at 308.8 MBx., up 18.9 MBx from the previous season. 

Area, Tree Inventory and Yields 

The Brazilian agricultural yield for MY 2013/14 is estimated at 2.07 boxes/tree, an 8 percent increase compared to the current season (1.92 boxes/tree). Total orange area for MY 2013/14 remains unchanged at 715,000 hectares (ha). 

Total Brazilian tree inventory for MY 2013/14 is projected at 234 million trees, down 4 million trees compared to the previous season. Sao Paulo is the only state that compiles data on tree planted and tree inventory. ATO/Sao Paulo estimates stable area and tree population for “Other” states based on uniform production figures provided by IBGE. 

Producers’ Prices

The Orange Index price series is published by the University of Sao Paulo’s College of Agriculture “Luiz de Queiroz” (ESALQ) for both the fresh domestic market and product delivered to orange juice processing plants in the state of Sao Paulo. Both series track orange prices from September 1994. Prices for the fresh market are for fruit on the tree.

Until early June, a significant share of the producers does not have long term contracts with the orange juice processors. The three major processors have been crushing their own fruit and have not gone to the market to buy third party oranges.

Consumption

Total Brazilian orange consumption for MY 2013/14 is forecast at 141.5 MBx, up 9 MBx from MY 2012/13. These figures include actual domestic consumption plus losses from natural drop, harvesting, transportation and packing.

Fruit delivered to processors for “not from concentrated (NFC)” orange production for the domestic market is also included in these figures. Domestic consumption estimates are calculated as the difference between production estimates and the volume of oranges delivered to processors for FCOJ and NFC produced for exports.

Trade

Total fresh orange export estimate for MY 2013/14 remains unchanged at 0.5 MBx, similar to the current season. The majority of exports occur during the harvest of the commercial crop (June-December).

ORANGE JUICE

Production

General

ATO/Sao Paulo estimates total Brazilian FCOJ 65 Brix equivalent production for MY 2013/14 at 1.078 million metric tons (mmt), a 12 percent increase compared to MY 2012/13, due to higher expected fruit availability for crushing. The Sao Paulo industry is expected to process 265 MBx of oranges for orange juice production (213 MBx and 52 MBx for FCOJ and NFC production, respectively), accounting for 988,000 mt of juice (788,000 mt and 200,000 metric tons of FCOJ and NFC, respectively). Other producing states should deliver 24 MBx for processing.

Total Brazilian FCOJ 65 Brix equivalent production for MY 2012/13 is estimated at 960,000 mt, a 24 percent drop relative to the previous crop, due to lower availability of fruit for processing and low industrial yields. The Sao Paulo industry should account for 245 MBx for crushing (195 MBx and 50 MBx for FCOJ and NFC production, respectively), whereas other states should contribute 24 MBx.

Orange juice figures include NFC production for exports converted to FCOJ 65 Brix equivalent. There is no official estimate for NFC supply and demand in Brazil.

Consumption

FCOJ domestic consumption for MY 2013/14 is forecast at 47,000 mt, 65 Brix, up 2,000 mt from MY 2012/13, due to steady growing trend in consumption of ready to go orange juice and nectars.

Trade

Total Brazilian FCOJ 65 Brix equivalent exports for MY 2013/14 are forecast at 1.17 million metric ton (mmt), similar to MY 2012/13 (1.13 mmt). The Sao Paulo industry should contribute 930,000 mt, 65 Brix equivalent.

Stocks

Ending stocks for MY 2013/14 are projected at 160,000 mt, 65 Brix, down 139,000 mt from MY 2012/13), due to projected higher exports relative to production. Ending stocks for MY 2011/12 were revised to 509,000 mt based on updated production, supply and demand figures. Stock figures include only stocks in the storage tanks of orange juice facilities (processing plants, port terminals, etc) in Brazil. They do not include stocks owned by Brazilian companies abroad, e.g., in transit and port terminals in the U.S., Europe and Japan.

According to the Brazilian Association of Citrus Exporters (CitrusBR), global Brazilian orange juice inventories were 765,924 metric tons (66o Brix) in June 30, 2013. CitrusBr projects global orange juice inventories as of June 30, 2014 at 517,109 mt. CitrusBR global inventories include orange juice in storage tanks at processing plants and port terminals in Brazil; and stocks abroad (vessels and port facilities worldwide)