2013/14 Forecast Overview

Global production is forecast at nearly 500,000 metric tons, down 20 percent from the previous year as the United States, Iran and Turkey enter the off-year of the alternate bearing crop cycle. As a result of lower available supplies, world consumption and ending stocks are expected to decline. Global exports are forecast to rise 6 percent to 315,000 tons on continued import demand from China and the European Union (EU).

U.S. production is forecast to decline 15 percent to 213,000 tons due primarily to the offyear. However, exports are forecast to reach a record 175,000 tons on strong shipments to the EU and China. Consumption is expected lower on tightening supplies.

Iran’s production is forecast down 7 percent to 170,000 tons due to the off-year. Exports are forecast up more than 10 percent, reaching 135,000 tons. Iran ships to several regional trading partners, like Iraq and the United Arab Emirate, but also competes with the United States in the EU and China.

Although Turkey’s production is forecast to plunge over 50 percent to 50,000 tons, similar to previous off-years, it will have limited effect on trade as almost the entire harvest is consumed domestically.

China’s imports are forecast 5 percent higher at 80,000 tons and have nearly tripled in five years, surpassing the EU as the largest market. Shanghai and Beijing are key markets for U.S. pistachios, whereas smaller cities prefer more competitively-priced imports from Iran.

EU imports are forecast to continue rebounding from the effects of the financial crisis and are expected to reach 70,000 tons. The United States supplies a majority of the market.

Revised 2012/13

World production is revised down from the February 2013 estimate by 33,000 tons to 614,000.

• Iran is lowered 17,000 tons to 183,000 primarily on lower yields in the top producing regions of Rafsanjan and Anar.

World exports are lowered 37,000 tons to 298,000.

• Iran is reduced 19,000 tons to 121,000 due to lower demand from the Middle East and Russia.

• United States is down 12,000 tons to 167,000 mostly due to lower shipments to China.

World imports are revised 20,000 tons lower to 281,000.

• China is reduced 14,000 tons to 76,000 due to updated data