Report Highlights: 

Drought, floods and frost all had adverse effects on local wheat, barley, corn, and rice crops in market year (MY) 2014. Rice planting was the first affected by the lack of water at the beginning of the season, and with floods in recent weeks. Lower local production will increase imports demand of all grains. Wheat imports are expected to go as high as 5.5 million metric tons (MMT), barley 1.5 MMT, corn 1.5 MMT and rice 300,000 metric tons (MT). Demand for imported wheat will also depend on export conditions of Turkish flour to the primary market in Iraq, where recent turmoil in the region has caused substantial logistical difficulties. A possible increase in rice imports also depends on exports, which in return depend on the government of Turkey’s (GOT) approach to the low level presence of agricultural biotechnology in imported grains.

PRODUCTION: 

Wheat 

The weather conditions, drought, regional floods and frost have all had adverse effects on wheat yields around the country. However, while yields are low, the quality of the crop is said to be very high. The protein content is very good in the Polatlı area, but late rains in Thrace are reported to have lowered protein values. The domestic wheat crop for MY 2014 is estimated at 15 MMT, of which about 1.5 MMT is durum wheat. 

Barley 

Barley yields declined severely due to drought and production is forecast at 4 MMT. Barley production in central Anatolia was most affected by the drought. Additionally, in the southeast Anatolia region the barley crop was damaged from dry weather conditions. 

Corn 

Corn production is expected to be 4.6 MMT. Production is bolstered by the availability of irrigation water in the Çukurova region, where farmers are now less concerned with second crop corn. In the Southeastern Anatolian Project (GAP) region, however, constant electricity cuts are reported to have harmed corn planting and yields. 

Rice 

Domestic rice planting is estimated to be marginally lower than last year due to lack of water in some areas. Additionally, heavy rains in mid-July in the Edirne area of Thrace flooded some fields and are expected to cause yield losses. Total milled rice production in MY 2014 is now estimated at 480,000 MT. 

TRADE: 

Turkey imported about 4.1 MMT of wheat during MY 2013. Russia was the leading supplier with 3 MMT, followed distantly by Kazakhstan (217,000 MT) and Mexico (175,000 MT). Turkish wheat exports during the same period were limited to 26,000 MT to Iraq. Turkish wheat flour and pasta products exports both increased 25 percent in MY 2013, and reached 2.3 MMT and 725,000 MT respectively. Iraq (1 MMT) and Syria (275,000 MT) were the main destination for Turkish flour exports. African countries were the main export destinations for Turkish pasta exports. 

Turkish wheat flour exports to Iraq, the main market for Turkish flour, are expected to fluctuate in the coming months due to political and security problems in the region. Turkish pasta producers are expected to increase exports to Europe and other markets. Turkey’s industry was able to cover their raw material needs at advantageous prices, which will keep them competitive in the international markets. 

Barley imports were about 127,000 MT in MY 2013, down significantly compared to the previous year due to a large local crop. Imports, however, are projected to increase in MY 2014 and reach 1.5 MMT due to drought damage to the local crop. Some local demand for barley is expected to shift to low quality local wheat and to corn. Demand for imported grains will also depend on dried distillers grains and solubles (DDGS) and corn gluten feed (CGF) import prices and conditions where possible detections of agricultural biotechnology in shipments may result in rejected or detained shipments, which is always a concern for importers. 

Corn imports for the first nine months of MY 2013 reached 831,000 MT. Russia is the main supplier with 700,000 MT, followed by Romania with 115,000 MT. Turkey also exported about 223,000 MT of corn during the same period. Spain was the primary destination with 114,000 MT, followed by Egypt with 43,500 MT. While marketing year end imports for 2013 are expected to remain at 1.2 MMT, lower production in MY 2014 will push imports to 1.5 MMT. 

Rice imports during the first nine months of MY 2013 were about 281,000 MT. The U.S. was the leading supplier with 114,000 MT, followed by India with 50,000 MT. MY 2014 imports are projected at 300,000 MT to meet local and export demand