Global Corn and Wheat Stocks Rebuild; Prices Fall

Global corn and wheat stocks in 2014/15 are projected 26 million tons higher than last year and are the highest in 15 years. At the same time, U.S. export prices have tumbled from recent highs to the lowest levels in 4 years.

Record world corn production will contribute to global corn stocks being projected more than 18 million tons higher than last year. However, this is driven almost entirely by larger inventories in the United States.

Outside of China, there has been little foreign stock-building in recent years even as high global prices and strong demand have stimulated production in Argentina, Brazil, China, Ukraine, and elsewhere.

Global wheat production is also projected at a record. Global stocks are continuing an upward trend and are projected more than 9 million tons higher than last year. Both Russia and Ukraine are projected to have large crops and account for over 40 percent of this year’s stock growth. Russia is typically the price leader, particularly during the first part of the season, and this year’s expected surplus is pressuring prices. In addition to Russia, lower global prices are reflecting ample supplies in other major exporting countries, a surplus of feed-quality wheat, and weak corn prices.

In the coming months, planting decisions for Southern Hemisphere corn and Northern Hemisphere winter wheat will be made in the face of rising stocks and falling prices.

WHEAT: WORLD MARKETS AND TRADE

OVERVIEW

Global production for 2014/15 is raised to a record 716 million tons, largely driven by a bumper crop in Russia and a record crop in China. Global trade is nearly unchanged as the drop in EU exports is offset by Russia. U.S. exports are up slightly. The season-average farm price is projected lower.

PRICES:

Domestic: Prices of most wheat classes fell during the month of July, pressured by prospects for large global supplies of both wheat and corn. Hard Red Winter (HRW) plunged $23/ton to $290 due to better-than-expected yields. Soft Red Winter (SRW) dropped $6/ton to $239 and Soft White Wheat (SWW) is $8 lower at $263/ton. Hard Red Spring (HRS), on the other hand, surged $23/ton to $348 based on logistical difficulties in the Northern Plains and the Pacific Northwest.

TRADE CHANGES IN 2014/15

Selected Exporters

• European Union is slashed 3.0 million tons to 25.0 million as untimely rain lowered crop quality, particularly in France, Bulgaria, and Romania.

• India is cut 500,000 tons to 2.0 million based on reduced competitiveness with abundant global supplies of low-quality wheat.

• Russia is boosted 3.0 million tons to a record 22.5 million resulting from a larger crop and higher-than-average milling quality wheat.

• United States is raised 500,000 tons to 25.5 million based on higher-than-expected Hard Red Winter wheat supplies.

Selected Importers

• China is lowered 1.0 million tons to 2.0 million because of reduced demand for imported feed-quality wheat.

• Egypt is cut 500,000 tons to 10.1 million as changes in the bread subsidy program dampen demand for imports.

• European Union is up 500,000 tons to 5.5 million with higher demand for milling-quality wheat.

• Iran is raised 500,000 tons to 4.5 million as the easing of sanctions is facilitating more trade.

• Russia is down 500,000 tons to 700,000 tons based on a larger crop.

TRADE CHANGES IN 2013/14

Selected Exporter - based on trade data

• European Union is raised 1.0 million tons to a record 31.5 million.

Selected Importer - based on trade data

• Iran is up 500,000 tons to 6.5 million.

RICE: WORLD MARKETS AND TRADE

OVERVIEW

Global trade in 2014/15 is down slightly from last month due to fewer exports by India. Production and stocks are lowered primarily based on reduced area in India. U.S. production is projected higher on yield, while trade is unchanged. Global consumption in 2014/15 is forecast to outpace production for the first time since 2006/07, mostly due to a drop in production in India. Additionally, India is projected to account for most of the 4 percent, year-to-year reduction to global stocks. Over the past eight years, India’s stocks have soared to massive levels due to recent bumper crops and a four-year partial export ban that ended in 2011. However, global exportable supplies are ample and trade is still projected at a record.

SELECTED TRADE CHANGES

• India’s exports are lowered 300,000 tons to 8.7 million in 2015 due to a smaller crop.

• Bangladesh’s imports are raised 200,000 tons in 2014 and 300,000 tons in 2015 to 700,000 and 500,000, respectively, to make up for reduced production.

• China’s imports are up 300,000 tons to 3.5 million in 2014 on the pace of shipments.

• Indonesia’s imports are down 100,000 tons in 2014 on the timing of expected purchases.

• South Africa’s imports in 2014 are cut 100,000 tons to 1.0 million on trade data.

COARSE GRAINS: WORLD MARKETS AND TRADE

OVERVIEW

World corn production is a record in 2014/15 with larger production in the United States and EU more than offsetting a reduction for India. Global trade is down slightly. U.S. exports are higher on less competition from Argentina. The season-average farm price is slightly lower due to ample domestic supplies.

For 2013/14, global trade is higher on stronger demand principally from Egypt and the EU. U.S. exports are slightly higher. The season-average farm price is unchanged.

PRICES

Since the release of the July WASDE report, U.S. corn quotes are nearly unchanged at $197/ton; however, the gap between U.S. quotes and other origins has widened. Argentine and Brazilian quotes are now $12/ton and $6/ton below the United States, as South American shipments are expected to pick up. Black Sea quotes have eased $8/ton to $186/ton.

TRADE CHANGES IN 2014/15

Selected Exporters

• U.S. corn is boosted 1.0 million tons to 44.0 million on a slightly larger crop and less competition from Argentina’s 2014 harvest (2013/14 U.S. exports are up 1.0 million tons to 49.0 million).

• Argentine corn is slashed 2.0 million tons to 15.0 million as more shipments are expected prior to October 1 (2013/14 exports are raised 1.5 million tons to 11.0 million).

• Russian barley is boosted 300,000 tons to a record 3.8 million on a larger crop.

Selected Importers

• EU corn is cut 2.0 million tons to 11.0 million due to a larger crop and expectations that more feed-quality wheat will be available domestically.

• Saudi corn is boosted 400,000 tons to 2.9 million because of favorable corn prices (2013/14 corn is boosted 200,000 tons to 2.5 million.)

• Taiwanese corn is up 200,000 tons to 4.4 million for both 2014/15 and 2013/14.

• Turkish corn is up 500,000 tons to a record 2.5 million, and barley is up 250,000 tons to 750,000 because of tight feed grain supplies.

TRADE CHANGES IN 2013/14

Selected Exporters - based on trade data

• Canadian corn is up 300,000 tons to 1.5 million.

• EU barley is raised 700,000 tons to 4.8 million.

• U.S. sorghum is boosted 300,000 tons to 5.3 million.

• Argentine sorghum is cut 200,000 tons to 1.0 million.

Selected Importers - based on trade data

• Egyptian corn is raised 1.0 million tons to a record 8.0 million.

• EU corn is boosted 1.0 million tons to a record 15.5 million.

• Indonesian corn is up 300,000 tons to 3.1 million.

• Israeli corn is raised 200,000 tons to 1.6 million.

• Mexican corn is slashed 800,000 tons to 10.7 million.

• Turkish corn is cut 300,000 tons to 1.2 million.

• Turkish barley is up 700,000 tons to a record 1.0 million.

• Chinese sorghum is up 500,000 tons to a record 3.9 million.

• Japanese sorghum is down 300,000 tons to 1.3 million