Oilseeds. World Markets and Trade. Aug 2014 Aug. 19, 2014
U.S. Soybean Meal Exports Propelled Higher by Strong Global Demand
U.S. soybean meal exports are poised to finish the 2013/14 marketing year (Oct-Sep) in record territory, propelled by the record sales pace through July. With strong global demand, this heightened pace has continued into 2014/15 with early season sales running more than three times above historic norms. Robust demand for U.S. soybean meal is attributed to a growing availability of exportable supplies, lower prices, and renewed competitiveness in international markets.
With a record soybean crop currently forecast for 2014, soybeans and products prices are expected to decline as last season’s tight supply situation improves. Ample soybean supplies will allow meal production to easily meet both domestic and foreign demand. Lower prices are expected to spark buyer interest in purchasing meal. With other major exporters showing limited or no growth in the coming year, buyers will find opportunities in the United States to secure additional meal, especially for Hi-Pro (48 percent protein) soybean meal.
For 2014/15, global soybean production is down slightly as a reduced crop for India more than offsets larger production for the United States. Global trade is up with stronger imports by Bangladesh, Indonesia, Mexico, and Turkey. Global trade for soybean meal is lower, while slightly higher for oil. The season average U.S. farm price is lowered.
For 2013/14, global soybean production is up slightly with a larger crop in South Africa. World trade is boosted with larger imports for Bangladesh, Indonesia, Mexico, and Turkey. Exports by Brazil and the United States are also raised. Global soybean meal trade is lower, while slightly higher for oil. The season average U.S. farm price is unchanged.
U.S. export bids, FOB Gulf, in July averaged $496 per ton, down $66 from last month. The seasonal decline is attributed to the prospect of a bumper crop in the fall.
As of the week-ending July 31, U.S. soybean commitments (outstanding sales plus accumulated exports) to China totaled 28.1 million tons compared to 21.6 million a year ago. Total commitments to the world are 46.1 million tons, compared to 37.2 million for the same period last year.
2014/15 TRADE OUTLOOK
• Argentina’s soybean meal exports are cut 300,000 tons to 29.5 million on expected slower pace.
• Brazil’s soybean meal exports are cut 200,000 tons to 13.8 million on lower production and trade.
• Canada’s rapeseed exports are cut 100,000 tons to 8.0 million on a reduced crop. Rapeseed meal exports are also cut 100,000 tons reflecting lower crush.
o Soybean meal exports are up 300,000 tons to 1.5 million on continued strength against Indian meal in the region.
o Rapeseed imports are cut 300,000 tons to 3.2 million on a larger crop.
o Rapeseed oil imports are cut 100,000 to 1.3 million on larger crush and oil production.
o Peanut exports are cut 100,000 tons to 500,000 on reduced supplies.
• EU’s rapeseed imports are cut 100,000 tons to 2.8 million on a record crop.
o Soybean meal exports are down 400,000 tons to 3.0 million as lower production reduces crush and exportable supplies.
o Sunflowerseed oil imports are up 200,000 tons to 1.6 million on the strong pace to date.
o Palm oil imports are cut 200,000 tons to 8.6 million on weaker than expected purchases.
• Russia’s sunflowerseed exports are cut 100,000 tons to 100,000 on a reduced crop.
• Turkey’s soybean imports are up 100,000 tons to 1.3 million on stronger demand for crush.
• Ukraine’s rapeseed exports are up 200,000 tons to 2.2 million on larger supplies.
2013/14 TRADE OUTLOOK
• United States
o Soybean exports are up 545,000 tons to 44.6 million reflecting both revised data for September through December 2013 from the Department of Commerce and inspection data for July 2014.
o Soybean imports are cut 136,000 tons to 2.2 million on trade trends and on the data revision from the Department of Commerce.
• Belarus’s sunflowerseed meal imports are cut 120,000 tons to 600,000 on a slower pace to date.
o Soybean exports are boosted 550,000 tons to 46.3 million on trade to date.
o Soybean meal exports are cut 200,000 tons to 13.8 million on lower production.
• Canada’s rapeseed exports are boosted 800,000 tons to 8.9 million reflecting strong demand from China.
o Soybean meal exports are up 400,000 tons to 1.9 million on trade trends.
o Rapeseed imports are up 400,000 tons to a record 4.4 million on continued strong demand for crush. With larger crush, oil imports are cut 100,000 tons to 1.1 million.
o Sunflowerseed oil imports are up 100,000 tons to 600,000 on trade to date.
o Soybean meal exports are down 200,000 tons to 2.9 million on lower crush.
o Sunflowerseed oil imports are up 250,000 tons to 1.6 million on trade to date.
o Palm oil imports are trimmed 300,000 tons to 8.0 million on trade trends.
• Turkey’s soybean imports are up 220,000 tons to 1.5 million reflecting trade to date and stronger crush. With larger production from crush, soybean meal imports are cut 100,000 tons to 820,000.
• Ukraine’s sunflowerseed meal exports are cut 150,000 tons to 3.8 million on trade trends