Fresh Deciduous Fruit (Apples, Grapes, & Pears). World Markets and Trade. Aug 2014 Aug. 28, 2014
This report includes estimates for the 2013/14 marketing year. Russia’s agricultural import ban, which includes fresh deciduous fruit from certain countries, will be addressed in the December 5th issue when the 2014/15 marketing year is first released.
FRESH APPLES: 2013/14 HIGHLIGHTS
Overview: World production in 2013/14 is estimated at 68.3 million tons, unchanged from the previous year, as gains in the United States and Mexico offset a decline in China. Fresh consumption is estimated to expand slightly faster than production, while processed is expected to ease. Global exports remain nearly flat.
EU production is estimated at 11.5 million tons, nearly unchanged from last year. Fresh consumption is expected to rebound 8 percent on stronger imports and fewer apples going to processing. Although exports are flat at 1.5 million tons, the EU remains the world’s leading exporter. The 2013/14 marketing year for the EU refers to July 2013 through June 2014.
As the world’s largest producer, China’s output is estimated slightly lower at 38.0 million tons as excessive rains destroyed a number of mature trees in top producing province Shandong, while cooler temperatures during flowering reduced the fruit size in other provinces. Domestic consumption is expected to rise at the expense of processing. Exports are estimated to fall 7 percent to 950,000 tons on tightening supplies.
U.S. production is up 12 percent to 4.5 million tons as greater yields in Michigan, New York, and North Carolina more than offset reductions in Washington State. As a result, processing rebounded and fresh consumption continued to expand. Exports are estimated 5 percent lower at 850,000 tons as top markets Canada and Mexico have reduced import demand. Imports are estimated to climb to a record 215,000 tons on expanding domestic demand. The 2013/14 marketing year for the United States refers to August 2013 through July 2014.
Chile production is estimated to contract 8 percent to 1.3 million tons as frost during fruit development reduced yields. With lower available supplies, export growth is limited despite rising demand in top markets EU and the United States.
South Africa production is forecast marginally higher at a record 900,000 tons as additional recently planted trees are now producing fruit. Apples for processing are expected to spike as much of the crop is damaged by hail and excessive rain, resulting in lower supply of export quality apples.
Russia, the world’s leading importer, is expected to decrease imports by 20 percent to 1.1 million tons on falling demand and record production. The 2013/14 marketing year for Russia refers to July 2013 through June 2014.
Production in Argentina is estimated to plunge to its lowest level in 25 years as extreme temperatures lowered output to 700,000 tons. Domestic consumption is boosted at the expense of processed. Meanwhile, exports are expected to tumble 10 percent to 145,000 tons on tightening supplies.
Production in New Zealand is forecast down 10 percent to 480,000 tons on a smaller crop due to the biennial bearing off-year cycle, lowering consumption and processed. Exports are forecast slightly lower on smaller output. New Zealand competes with Chile in the EU.
Global production is raised 629,000 tons to 68.1 million tons from the June 2013 estimate.
• China is 500,000 tons higher to 38.5 million based on revised crop production data.
• EU is up 143,000 tons to 11.4 million on revised crop production data.
World exports are revised up 114,000 tons to 5.6 million.
• Chile is raised 133,000 tons to 833,200 on a larger crop and strong demand in EU and the United States.
• EU is boosted 68,000 tons to 1.6 million on strong shipments to Russia.
• China is cut 74,000 tons due to lower shipments to Russia, Indonesia, and Bangladesh.
World imports are 224,000 tons higher to 5.1 million.
• Brazil is 57,000 tons higher to 94,000 tons based on updated data.
• EU is raised 48,000 tons to 563,000 based on updated data.
• Russia is boosted 38,100 tons to 1.3 million based on updated data.
• The United States is 20,122 tons higher at 195,100 tons based on updated data.
TABLE GRAPES: 2013/14 HIGHLIGHTS
Overview: Global table grape production in 2013/14 is up 5 percent to a record 18.1 million tons, largely on continued expansion in China. Exports remain flat at 2.5 million, with record U.S. exports.
Production in China is a record 8.1 million tons on expanded area, increased greenhouse production, and use of weather-adaptable and better yielding varieties. Although the world’s largest producer, record imports are expected as record consumption outpaced production. Though Chile remains the major supplier, shipments from the United States have been increasing.
Production in the United States is estimated to jump over 15 percent to a record 1.0 million tons on favorable growing conditions. With higher available supplies, exports are expected to climb 17 percent to a record 416,000 tons, fueled by expanding demand in Mexico and Asia. The 2013/14 marketing year for the United States refers to May 2013 through April 2014.
EU production is estimated to rebound to 2.0 million tons on higher yields as area declined. Imports by this top market remain unchanged. Exports are nearly unchanged at 153,000 tons as gains in Belarus are offset by reduced shipments to Russia and Ukraine. The EU is facing competition from Turkey in these markets. The 2013/14 marketing year for the EU refers to June 2013 through May 2014.
Production in Chile is forecast to decline 10 percent to 1.1 million tons as significant temperature fluctuations during the fruit development stage caused yields to drop. As a result, exports are expected to fall with fewer shipments to the EU and United States. Chile is the world’s leading exporter, accounting for one-third of total exports.
Mexico’s production tumbled 7 percent to 260,000 primarily due to cooler temperatures delaying berry development in the key region of Sonora, which lowered yield. Imports, exclusively from the United States, surged as fresh consumption continued to rise. With lower domestic supplies, exports have fallen.
Production inSouth Africa is unchanged at 300,000 tons as rising costs of establishing new vineyards restrict expansion. Exports are expected down 7 percent to 260,000 tons on increased competition from Chile and Peru in the EU, its major destination.
Argentina’s production is forecast 50 percent lower to 70,000 tons as a late frost and heavy rains damaged output in the key province of San Juan. As a result, both consumption and exports are expected to plunge. Exports to Brazil, its major destination, are further constrained by the May 2012 suspension of the automatic import license under which trade flows were expedited.
Global production is boosted 48,700 tons to 17.2 million from the June 2013 estimate.
• China is raised 200,000 tons to 7.4 million based on revised production data
• Mexico is revised 65,000 tons up to 280,000 based on revised production data.
• EU is slashed 180,000 tons to 1.8 million based on revised production data
• The United States is cut 34,000 tons to 873,967 based on the recent NASS July crop report.
World exports are raised 21,000 tons to 2.5 million.
• Chile is boosted 46,400 tons to 856,400 based on updated data.
• EU is lowered 10,000 tons to 150,000 based on updated data.
FRESH PEARS: 2013/14 HIGHLIGHTS
Overview: World pear production for 2013/14 is forecast to continue climbing to a record 23.1 million tons, with China accounting for nearly all of the growth. Exports are nearly unchanged at 1.8 million tons as record shipments by the EU and United States are offset by lower exports from China.
China, the dominant producer, is forecast to continue expanding to a record 17.5 million tons. Exports are expected to plummet nearly 25 percent to 310,000 tons, primarily due to increased competition in Indonesia, its top market.
EU production is expected to rebound more than 15 percent to 2.4 million tons due to favorable weather. With higher available supplies, exports are similarly expected to rebound to 470,000 tons on the strength of shipments to Russia and Belarus. Imports are estimated to drop 8 percent to 260,000 tons on higher domestic supplies. The 2013/14 marketing year for the EU refers to July 2013 through June 2014.
U.S. production is estimated 3 percent higher to 795,000 tons mostly on a largerthan-expected harvest in Washington State, the major producer. Exports are up 11 percent to 204,000 tons, the highest record since 2000, primarily on strong demand in Mexico. Shipments to China, though still small, have been increasing since market access opened in 2013. U.S. pears compete with the cheaper, locally preferred sand-pear varieties. The 2013/14 marketing year for the United States refers to July 2013 through June 2014.
Production in Argentina is estimated to decline 14 percent to 670,000 tons due to extreme temperatures which reduced fruit size, constraining consumption and processing. As a result of tight domestic supplies, exports are down 9 percent to 400,000 tons. Argentina continues to face import constraints in Brazil, its primary destination.
Russia’s production is estimated 3 percent higher at 133,000 on slightly greater yields. Imports by this top market are forecast to expand to 395,000 tons. Although the EU is the major supplier, Argentina’s pears enter the Russian market during the off season when domestic supply is short. The 2013/14 marketing year for Russia refers to July 2013 through June 2014.
Production in South Africa is expected up slightly to a record 400,000 tons due to area expansion and more trees reaching full bearing age. However, the rising cost of establishing new orchards is limiting further expansion. Exports are expected to slightly fall on weakened demand in the EU.
Production in Chile is expected down 7 percent to 270,000 tons on reduced output due to the worst recorded frost since 1929. With rising consumption constraining domestic supplies, exports, mainly to the EU, are projected to fall 17 percent to 120,000 tons.
Global production is raised 500,000 tons to 22.4 million from the June 2013 estimate.
• China is 500,000 tons higher to 17.0 million based on updated crop production data.
World exports are cut 74,400 tons to 1.7 million tons.
• Argentina is lowered 31,300 tons to 438,700 due to weakened demand in Brazil, EU and Russia.
• EU is cut 21,500 tons to 318,500 on reduced crop.
• Chile is revised 13,600 tons higher to 143,600 on larger shipments to EU and the United States.
World imports are up 32,300 tons to 1.7 million.
• EU is boosted 26,900 tons to 282,000 based on updated data.
• Russia is raised 8,000 tons to 368,000 based on updated data