Fresh Peach/Nectarine: 2014/15 Highlights

Global production in 2014/15 of peaches/nectarines is forecast at a record 19.9 million metric tons, with China accounting for almost all the growth. Consumption is expected to keep pace with production, while processing is forecast to continue its upward trend. Exports are forecast lower at 555,000 tons.

Production in China, the world’s largest producer, is forecast at a record 13.0 million tons, 18 percent higher than last year on continued area expansion, use of greenhouse production, and favorable growing conditions. Consumption is expected to keep pace with production, with more peaches/nectarines going to processing. Exports are projected to climb 35 percent to 50,000 tons on expanded shipments to Kazakhstan and Vietnam.

U.S. production is forecast down for the fourth year to 910,000 tons on declining area and yield in California, which accounts for nearly 75 percent of total production. The drought situation there remains a concern for growers, but they have reportedly utilized wells to offset the impact on their crops. Although overall output is down, freestone variety which is mainly consumed fresh is up while clingstone (for processing) declined. As a result, fresh consumption is slightly higher, while processing is lower. Exports are forecast down 15 percent to 85,000 tons on reduced demand in Canada, Mexico, and Taiwan. Imports, mostly supplied by Chile during the off-cycle months, are expected to decline.

EU production is forecast to climb about 10 percent reaching 4.0 million tons on continued area expansion in Spain and the onset of new, higher yielding varieties. Exports are forecast down nearly 19 percent to 250,000 largely on reduced shipments to Russia. Russia, its major market, announced on August 6 a one-year ban on the imports of some agricultural products, including peaches and nectarines, from the EU and four other countries. Prior to the ban, total exports were up more than 50 percent. Consumption and processing are expected to rise on larger available supplies.

Russia’s imports are forecast to decrease 7 percent to 200,000 tons. Prior to the ban, imports were up 25 percent.

Turkey’s exports are forecast 32 percent higher at 45,000 tons on increased shipments to Russia, Iraq, and Saudi Arabia. Domestic consumption is slightly lowered, while processing is unchanged.

Chile’s output is expected to rebound to 140,000 tons following last year’s frost. Many farmers are replacing older orchards with new, higher yielding varieties, although area is expected to continue its decade-long downward trend due to low profitability. With a larger crop, exports are expected to expand to 80,000 tons, a majority will be shipped to China.

Production in Taiwan is forecast 13 percent higher at 31,000 tons on greater yields despite continued decline in area. With greater available output, imports (mostly from the United States) are slightly lower at 20,000 tons.

Australia’s production is forecast to remain unchanged at 100,000 tons. Imports, all from the United States, are expected higher. However, in the future, the United States may face competition from other suppliers who now have new trade agreements.

Fresh Cherry: 2014/15 Highlights

World cherry production in 2014/15 is forecast to increase 2 percent to 2.4 million tons, as gains in China and Chile offset reductions in the EU and the United States. Consumption is up, driven largely by China, while processing is lower due to reduced supply in the EU and United States. Meanwhile, exports are forecast at a record 304,000 tons.

Production in the EU, the world’s leading producer, is expected down 3 percent to 675,000 tons as frost and severe hailstorm during harvests in Italy and Poland reduced output. Consumption is flat as fewer cherries are diverted to processing. Exports are forecast to fall 30 percent to 30,000 tons largely on lower Russian demand prior to the ban.

China’s production is forecast at a record 220,000 tons on expanded area in the key provinces of Shandong and Liaoning. Consumption is expected to outpace production for the 6th year in a row. Consequently, imports are expected to rise to a record 50,000 tons. While current imports are mostly from California, other states are beginning to ship to China. Chinese consumers prefer U.S. cherries.

U.S. production is forecast down again, falling slightly to 395,000 tons on reduced production of sweet cherries in California and tart cherries in Michigan. With less product going into processing, fresh exports are forecast 33 percent higher to 89,000 tons on expanding demand in Canada, China, and other Asian countries. Imports are unchanged at 10,000 tons.

Production in Chile is forecast 28 percent higher at 110,000 tons as new trees start bearing fruit. Exports are expected to expand 34 percent to a record 90,000 tons largely on increased shipments to China.

Turkey’s exports are forecast slightly lower at 50,000 tons on reduced demand in the EU, its major market destination. Turkey competes with Serbia in the EU market.

Japan’s production is projected slightly higher at 20,000 tons mainly on good growing conditions. Imports are expected to decrease to 5,000 tons.

Taiwan’s imports are forecast up significantly from last year to 15,000 tons. The United States remains the major source, supplying more than half of total imports. The United States competes with Canada.

Russia’s imports are expected to remain flat at 80,000 tons as most of the product was shipped prior to the ban. Russia remains the world’s largest importer