Tree Nuts: World Markets and Trade. Oct 2014 Nov. 11, 2014
Global almond production for 2014/15 is forecast 5 percent higher to a record 1.1 million metric tons shelled basis primarily on gains in the United States and the European Union (EU). With consumption rising at a similar rate, ending stocks are expected to remain elevated. Global exports, which comprise two-thirds of production, are forecast to rise nearly 5 percent.
U.S. production is forecast 5 percent higher to a record 953,000 tons on increased area and yield. California’s water issues are a concern for many growers. Orchards required irrigation in the winter months due to the lack of precipitation, but rain early in the season offered some relief. Exports are forecast to rise 3 percent to a record 625,000 tons largely on additional shipments to China. However, exports to Russia, which totaled nearly 15,000 tons last year, are expected to drop significantly due to the import ban that includes U.S. almonds.
Australia’s production is forecast to rise 7 percent to 75,000 tons as trees planted in new areas reach maturity. Whereas output expanded rapidly over the last decade, only modest gains are expected over the next several years because area expansion has slowed. Exports are forecast up 8 percent to 60,000 tons on continued advances in sales to China and India.
EU production is forecast to climb 20 percent to 75,000 tons as Spain recovers from last year’s frost and heavy rains that occurred during the flowering period. Larger available supplies are expected to temper import demand. Consumption remains strong on continued demand from the food ingredient, snack food, and confectionary industries.
China’s imports are forecast to rebound 15 percent to 70,000 tons on renewed demand from food manufacturers and consumers. Last year, imports plummeted 30 percent due in part to rising prices.
World production is revised up 67,000 tons to 1.1 million.
• United States is revised 73,000 tons higher to 912,000 due to increased area and yield.
World imports are revised 16,000 tons higher to 647,000.
• China is cut 59,000 tons to 61,000 due to updated data.
• EU is raised 41,000 tons to 266,000 on stronger-than-anticipated demand.
World ending stocks are revised up 83,000 tons to 183,000.
• United States is up 79,000 tons to 159,000 on larger available supplies.
Record global walnut production and trade are forecast. Production continues to expand to 1.7 million tons in-shell basis, with China and the United States accounting for 80 percent of total output. World exports, dominated by the United States and Ukraine, are expected to rise 6 percent to 548,000 tons.
China’s production is forecast up 15 percent to 900,000 tons on increased area and yield. With exports forecast at just 17,000 tons, the remainder is consumed domestically. Imports are forecast to gain 7 percent to 100,000 tons as demand from the food ingredient and snack food industries continues to expand.
U.S. production is forecast over 10 percent higher to a record 494,000 tons despite drought conditions. Growers used surface water where available and groundwater when necessary to provide adequate water supply to the trees. Weather conditions during the growing season were mild thus benefitting the crop. Exports are forecast nearly 10 percent higher to a record 340,000 tons primarily on gains to China and the EU.
EU production is forecast up about 5 percent to 105,000 tons mostly on higher yields in Romania. Imports are expected to increase 5 percent to 180,000 tons on stronger demand in Germany, Italy and Spain. Demand is driven by snack foods and cooking ingredients on the retail side and pastries on the industrial side.
Ukraine’s production is forecast to rise 5 percent to 100,000 tons. Exports, once dominated by shipments to Russia, have shifted to other markets such as the EU and China.
Turkey’s production is forecast to plunge nearly 50 percent to 40,000 tons due to the effect of freezing temperatures during the delicate flowering period in March and April followed by drought conditions. In response, imports are forecast to jump 25 percent to 65,000 tons, with consumption slipping.
World production is revised up 18,000 tons to 1.6 million.
• China is revised 20,000 tons higher to 780,000 due to increased area and yield.
• Chile is raised 17,000 tons to 62,000 as bearing area continued to expand.
• Ukraine is reduced 15,000 tons to 95,000 on lower yield.
World exports are nearly unchanged at 517,000 tons.
• Chile is revised up 17,000 tons to 60,000 on larger available supplies.
• Ukraine is reduced 15,000 tons to 75,000 following less available supplies.
World imports are revised 11,000 tons higher to 486,000.
• China is reduced 59,000 tons to 91,000 due to updated data.
• EU is raised 56,000 tons to 171,000 on higher-than-anticipated demand