Jordan. Grain and Feed Annual. Oct 2014 Nov. 11, 2014
The Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan is among the poorest water resources countries on earth. Water scarcity is a real threat to the country’s ability to grow crops. As a result, Jordan’s domestic production of cereals is negligible. Jordan’s total wheat imports for MY 2015/2016 are forecast to reach 915,000 MT, none of which is expected to be imported from the US. The major wheat suppliers are Black Sea sources. For the same period, Jordan's barley imports are expected to reach 850,000 MT, corn imports 550,000 MT, and rice imports at 185,000 MT of which 50 percent is of U.S. origin.
Production of wheat is negligible in Jordan and would cover about three weeks of the country's annual consumption.
Wheat for human consumption is steady with a slight increase due to the ongoing presence of hundreds of thousands of Syrian refugees. Total consumption also includes wheat that is diverted for use as animal feed. Jordan’s total wheat consumption is approximately 915,000 MT per year. However, the influx of Syrian refugees, which began in early 2012, has increased the annual wheat consumption by approximately 200,000 MT (27%).
In MY 2014/15 wheat imports were 850 TMT, the figure would likely to slightly increase by the natural growth of population and the abnormal increase by the influx of refugees.
Syrian refugees, estimated to be nearly10 percent of the population (or slightly above 600,000 registered refugees) according to the UNHCR. Jordan’s total population is approximately 6 million people. However, Government of Jordan (GOJ) officials believe the Syrian presence could now represent as much as 20 percent of the actual number of consumers Economic pressures coupled with high C&F prices for U.S. wheat kept Black Sea wheat more competitive and the only source of wheat to Jordan in MY 2014/15and now MY2015/16.
Stocks:GOJ continues its policy of maintaining strategic stocks at 10 months of consumption to avoid any shortages. These are equivalent to 500,000 MT in storage silos and 200,000 on sea and at port
Jordan’s wheat bread, known as “unified bread” (in Arabic as mowahad), is fully subsidized by the government and all citizens are entitled to it. GOJ fixes the price of subsidized wheat so that bakeries sell subsidized bread at US$ 0.22 per kg. To do so, the GOJ provides the bakeries with wheat flour extracted at a milling rate of 80 percent at US$50 per MT, while the market cost for the wheat flour can rise to US$535 per MT. Whenever there is an increase in the cost of an input used for making bread, such as fuel, the GOJ lowers the flour price to compensate for that increase, maintaining the subsidized price. There are no indications that the GOJ has plans to change its bread subsidy policy, despite media reports to the contrary.
The Ministry of Industry and Trade (MIT) is the predominant wheat importer in Jordan
Production, Supply and Demand Data Statistics:
The already minimal level of production is expected to decline further due to persistent drought, land desertification, and losses of land to other uses.
For now, an increase in demand is expected due to continued economic hardship, the continued and likely expanded presence of Syrian refugees, and also the use of some flour in the market by some humanitarian relief agencies to feed Syrians on the border areas.
Production of barley is negligible. Most barley is used for animal feed at early growth stages.
Barley is mainly used for sheep feed and to a lesser extent for dairy cattle and poultry. Barley use has dropped significantly after the GOJ adopted the animal tag system. Each sheep herder now receives subsidized barley according to the actual number of tagged animals. As a result, corruption has decreased substantially.
MY 2015/16, total imports are expected to increase 6 percent to 850,000 MT a year . Barley suppliers are mainly Black Sea countries. No barley imports from the U.S. have been recorded for a decade. The GOJ has been the main importer of barley and sets the selling price.
The ending stocks in MY 2014/2015 were 400,000 MT in inland and port silos. This amount, in addition to the purchased and contracted amounts, exceeds the 10 months of Jordan’s consumption needs.
Only sheep and goat owners receive subsidized barley. This program excludes cattle and poultry farmers from receiving subsidized barley as these two agricultural subsectors are considered industries. The GOJ animal tagging project has created a reliable database on all ruminant animals in Jordan, replacing the questionable animal census.
The Ministry of Industry and Trade (MIT) is the predominant barley importer in Jordan.
Jordan’s corn production is negligible, with annual production totaling less than 10,000 MT. Any corn that is domestically produced is for human consumption as corn on the cob.
Corn consumption is forecast to be 545,000 MT MY15
The decrease in U.S. corn prices has driven up the demand for U.S. origin corn slightly but the market is still dominated by Argentine, Brazilian, and Black Sea corn. MY 2015 would not expect different in a market that is a very price sensitive.
Jordan’s imports of corn have increased, corresponding to the growth in the poultry, dairy and table egg sectors . Jordan’s poultry industry is considered the biggest agri-business sector in Jordan, with an investment value of around USD 2.5 billion. The Jordan-U.S. Free Trade Agreement no longer provides an advantage for U.S. corn, as all imported corn is exempt from tariffs.
Only a nominal amount of corn is stored on-farm by poultry farmers.
There are no restrictions on corn trade in Jordan, and specifications for corn are similar to U.S. standards.
Corn in Jordan is imported and distributed through private sector traders in a market based system.
Being the fourth driest country in the world, Jordan does not produce rice at all.
Rice is a staple of the Jordanian diet. Average annual consumption is about 27 kg per person. The preferred variety is medium grain (Camolino), which constitutes 90 percent of imports.
U.S. market share for rice is expected to remain steady in MY 2014/15 at nearly 60 percent of Jordan’s market share for medium grain rice. Other major rice suppliers include Thailand, India and Turkey.
No stocks are maintained for this commodity.
There are no restrictions on rice trade in Jordan, and specifications are similar to U.S. standards.
Rice in Jordan is imported and distributed through private sector traders in a market based system