India. Oilseeds and Products Update. Dec 2014 Jan. 12, 2015
India’s current area planted for rabi (winter sown) oilseeds is 5.2 million hectares (MHA), an increase of two percent over 2013, primarily due to higher rapeseed and mustard area. Final area planted is forecast at 12.7 MHA. The rabi oilseed production forecast for marketing year (MY) 2014/15 remains unchanged at 13.3 MMT. Strong demand for edible oils amid tighter supplies in MY 2014/15 will push imports to a record 12.6 million metric tons (MMT). Oil meal exports will reach 4.8 MMT.
Current Rabi Oilseed Area Planted is Two Percent over 2013
To date, planting remains underway for rabi season oilseed crops. The Ministry of Agriculture’s (MinAg) most recent planting report indicates that the combined area planted for sunflower, peanut, rapeseed and mustard is currently 5.2 MHA, a marginal two percent increase over the corresponding period in 2013. Thus far, rabi area planted for rapeseed and mustard has increased by approximately four percent to 4.9 MHA over the same period last year, due to timely planting and good retention of soil moisture from late monsoon rains. Rapeseed and mustard planting in Rajasthan, Haryana, and Madhya Pradesh was delayed somewhat, due to a late harvest of kharif (fall harvested) crops in those states. Conversely, MinAg reports that current rabi area planted for sunflower is 164,000 hectares, a decrease of 84,000 hectares from the corresponding period in 2013. Current area planted for peanuts is 171,000 hectares, a marginal decline of 8,000 hectares from last year.
Total Rabi Oilseed Production Estimates Unchanged at 13.3 MMT
Assuming normal rabi cropping conditions, total oilseed area planted in 2014 will be upwards of 12.65 MHA and total oilseed production is estimated at about 13.3 MMT. Rapeseed and mustard are only grown during the rabi season. Rapeseed and mustard will account for over 54 percent of all oilseed acreage at approximately 7.2 MHA. Production levels for rapeseed and mustard will be 7.5 MMT. Peanut area planted will be 4.8 MHA and peanut production will be 5.2 MMT. Sunflower estimates remain unchanged from previous estimates, with total area planted at 650,000 hectares and production at 600,000 MT. Area and production forecasts for sunflower and peanut include kharif and rabi seasons.
India to Import Record 12.6 MMT Edible Oils in MY 2014/15
India’s population and income growth, coupled with tighter oilseed supplies (3.4 percent less than MY 2013/14) in MY 2014/15 will likely lead to record edible oil imports in MY 2014/15. Post forecast that India will import 12.6 MMT, a 10.3 percent increase over last year. Last marketing year, soybean and sunflower oils grew by eight percent to achieve 30 percent total market share and lifted total edible oil imports from an estimated 11 MMT to 11.4 MMT. Soybean and sunflower oils are also expected to retain upwards of 28 percent share in the current marketing.
Total Oilseeds Crush in MY 2013/14 Drops on Non-competitive Indian Soymeal, End Stocks Revised Up
Soybean production in MY 2014/15 remains unchanged at 10.6 MMT. However, the total oilseed crushes for MY 2013/14 is reduced by 600,000 metric tons (MT) to 29.1 MMT due to lower than anticipated availability of oilseeds for crush-to-meal. Indian millers are discouraged by an inability to compete on the international soybean meal market, due to the high costs of Indian soybean meal. This dynamic has discouraged millers to crush more beans. Consequently, oilseed ending stocks are revised to 1.7 MMT, a 17 percent increase.
Oil Meal Exports in MY 2014/15 Forecast Unchanged at 4.8 MMT, But up 23 Percent over Last Season
Post’s oilmeal export forecast (which excludes rice bran and castor meal) for MY 2014/15 remains unchanged at 4.8 MMT. This export forecast is now 23 percent higher than last year. Weak export sales in MY 2013/14 reduced total oilmeal exports from the previous estimate of 5.3 MMT to 4.4 MMT. As a result, the gap between last year’s sales and MY 2014/15’s forecast has widened, indicating a significant jump. Historically, 60 percent of India’s oil meal is exported which includes shipments to neighboring countries via land transportation and bulk ocean freight shipments to various international destinations. The remaining 40 percent is typically consumed domestically.
Last year saw a 35 percent decline in soymeal exports, which brought down total oilmeal exports by 24 percent to 3.9 MMT. Usually, soymeal accounts for over 70 percent of total oilmeal exports