FRESH APPLES

World production in marketing year 2014/15 is forecast to decrease slightly from last year to 70.8 million metric tons (tons), with declines in China and Turkey offsetting gains in the European Union (EU). Global trade is expected to decline more than 5 percent primarily as a result of Russia’s ban on fruit from certain countries.

Russia’s production is forecast to increase nearly 10 percent to 1.6 million tons due in part to higher yields from renovated orchards. On August 7, 2014, Russia issued an order banning for one year certain agricultural imports, including fruit, from the United States, EU, Canada, Australia, and Norway. With the EU being the dominant supplier, imports are forecast to drop 27 percent to 800,000 tons. Imports from other countries are not expected to replace these volumes due in part to the devaluating Ruble, a slumping economy, and rising inflation.

EU’s production is forecast to increase 11 percent to a record 13.3 million tons driven by gains in Poland and to a lesser extent Italy. While production is forecast to increase, it is expected that not all product will be harvested as labor costs exceed prices. Exports are forecast to drop 21 percent to 1.3 million tons due to the Russian ban, its top market. Imports are also expected to decrease, by 12 percent to 550,000 tons, as increased output and the effect of the Russian ban will saturate the domestic market. Domestic consumption is forecast to increase and efforts are being made to find alternate markets, but these two factors combined are not expected to offset lost exports to Russia.

United States production is expected to increase nearly 4 percent to 4.9 million tons driven by Washington, the top growing state, experiencing a favorable growing season with good irrigation supplies. Exports are forecast to increase 4 percent to 875,000 tons primarily on rising shipments to Mexico, with imports decreasing 11 percent to 190,000 tons.

Chile’s production is forecast to increase 8 percent to 1.4 million tons as new and more productive trees bear fruit. The majority of the increased production is expected to go towards the processing sector. Exports are forecast to increase slightly to 834,000 tons.

China’s production is forecast to decrease 5 percent to 37.8 million tons due to low temperatures and heavy rains during the blossom period and a persistent summer drought in key provinces. Processing is expected to decline nearly 20 percent as a result of lower production. Exports are forecast to decrease 6 percent to 880,000 tons as high prices affect shipments to Asia, and limit opportunities in Russia created by the ban. Imports are expected to rebound back to earlier levels, to 40,000 tons, due to higher domestic prices making imports more attractive and the re-opening of the market to Washington state apples.

Mexico’s production is forecast to drop 22 percent to 670,000 tons after last year’s record crop. Imports are forecast to increase 15 percent to 260,000 tons. The Economy Secretariat has initiated an antidumping investigation against U.S. producers and exporters as requested by the Regional Fruit Producers Association from the State of Chihuahua. The Mexican government has established protocols and agreements with China that include imports of apples. Initial test shipments of Fuji apples have begun, however, the industry does not anticipate significant competition since this variety is still not widely accepted by consumers.

New Zealand’s production is forecast to increase 11 percent to 525,000 tons as apple orchards will be on an on-year, bloom is reported to be good, and there is a slight increase in area. To avoid over-supplying the market, growers are expected to conduct a comprehensive thinning program to control fruit size and to channel higher volumes to processing and the domestic market. Exports are forecast to increase 5 percent to 325,000 tons.

South Africa’s production is expected to remain nearly unchanged at 910,000 tons. For exports, a modest increase is forecast at 400,000 tons. Consumption is expected to remain flat.

Turkey’s production is forecast to drop over 20 percent to 2.3 million tons due to a late March frost which damaged the fruit set. As a result, exports are forecast to plummet to 40,000 tons.

Key revisions to 2013/14:

Global production is raised 3.2 million tons to 71.6 million.

• China is raised 1.7 million tons to 39.7 million.

• EU is raised 513,700 tons to 12.0 million.

• India is raised 450,000 tons to 2.2 million due to updated data.

• Mexico is raised 255,000 tons to 860,000 due to improved weather conditions.

TABLE GRAPES

World table grape production is forecast to increase 2 percent to 20.6 million tons as gains in China more than offset losses in Turkey and the EU. Global exports are expected to increase 3 percent to 2.8 million, driven primarily by Chilean exports.

China’s production is forecast to increase 11 percent to 9.0 million tons as area continues to expand. With exports forecast to be up 15 percent to 120,000 tons, the vast majority of grapes are consumed domestically. Imports are expected to jump 20 percent to 280,000 tons on continued strong demand for counter seasonal grapes. Peru is currently China’s second largest supplier, and its import tariff will drop to zero on January 1, 2015.

United States production is forecast to decrease 6 percent to 950,000 tons as drought in California and hail negatively affected some vineyards. Exports are forecast to decrease 4 percent to 400,000 tons on flat demand from then top markets Canada and Mexico. Imports are forecast to increase 9 percent to 565,000 tons due to higher available product from top supplier Chile.

Chile’s production is forecast to rebound from last year’s frost, up 14 percent to 1.2 million tons. As a result of increased available supplies, exports are forecast to rise nearly 15 percent to 825,000 tons.

Turkey’s production is forecast to decrease 13 percent, to 1.9 million tons, due to hail and frost in the spring then heavy rains during bloom. Exports are forecast to decrease 17 percent to 170,000 tons based on lower output and resulting higher prices.

EU’s production is forecast to decrease 16 percent to 1.6 million tons as area continues to decline due to reduced profitability. Exports are forecast to decline 15 percent to 130,000 tons due in part to the Russian ban. Imports are forecast to decrease 5 percent to 540,000 tons.

Peru’s production is forecast to increase again, by 8 percent to 540,000 tons as the industry continues to expand its overseas presence. Exports are forecast to increase 9 percent to 290,000 tons as shipments to all markets continue to expand.

Russia’s production is forecast to increase 10 percent to 81,000 tons. Imports are expected to decrease slightly to 385,000 tons as supplies from banned countries are largely off-set by other countries.

Revised 2013/14:

Global production is increased 2.0 million tons to 20.0 million tons.

• India is raised to 2.5 million tons due to updated data.

• South Korea is raised to 260,000 due to updated data.

• Peru production of 500,000 tons is added to the database; data was added back to 2001/02.

World imports are increased 118,000 tons to 2.4 million.

• Turkey was revised from 6,000 tons to 600 based on updated data.

• Russia is raised 81,000 tons to 391,000 primarily as a result of stronger than anticipated shipments from Turkey.

World exports are increased almost 152,000 tons to 2.7 million.

• Brazil is revised down 58,000 tons to 26,000 on sharply reduced exports to the EU.

• Peru exports of 265,000 tons is added to the database; data was added back to 2001/02.

FRESH PEARS

World pear production is forecast to increase a modest 5 percent to over 24.4 million tons boosted by increased production in China. Global trade is forecast down 7 percent, primarily as a result of the Russian ban.

China’s production is forecast to continue expanding, to a record 18.5 million tons as area also expands. Exports are expected to rise slightly to 320,000 tons prompted by a bump in demand from its top market, Indonesia.

United States production is forecast to decrease 9 percent to 724,000 tons, driven by reduced area in Washington and the other western states. Exports are forecast to plummet 26 percent to 150,000 tons as a result of reduced available supplies and, to a lesser extent, the Russian ban. Imports are also forecast to decline 9 percent to 75,000 tons.

EU’s production is forecast flat at 2.4 million tons as higher yields offset less area. Exports are forecast to drop 31 percent to 325,000 tons due to the Russian ban. With more available supplies and lower domestic prices, imports are expected to decrease by 14 percent to 220,000 tons. Domestic consumption is forecast to increase and efforts are being made to find alternate markets, but these two factors combined are not expected to offset lost exports to Russia, their top market.

Argentina’s production is expected to rebound 20 percent to 820,000 tons as a result of favorable weather. A majority of the increase is expected to go towards processing. Exports are forecast to increase 13 percent to 430,000 tons, as higher available supplies and the Russian ban enable Argentina to expand market share to Russia, one of their top markets.

Russia’s production is forecast to increase 6 percent to 153,000 tons due to favorable weather. Imports are expected to drop 30 percent to 275,000 tons due to the ban, which primarily affects the EU, and to a lesser extent the United States. Imports from other countries, such as Argentina and South Africa, are expected to only partially offset these losses.

Chile’s production is forecast to increase 9 percent to 290,000 tons on favorable weather. As a result of larger production and stronger demand, exports are also expected to expand to 135,000 tons.

Revised 2013/14:

Global production is raised slightly by 109,000 tons to 23.2 million.

• China is revised down 200,000 tons to 17.3 million due to a spring freeze.

• India production of 340,000 tons is added to the database; data was added back to 2001/02.

World imports are lowered almost 83,000 tons to 1.6 million.

• Brazil is revised down 22,100 tons to 207,900 on reduced shipments from Argentina.

• Indonesia is revised down 44,500 tons to 95,500 on less shipments from China.

Marketing Years:

Apples - The United States and Mexico are on an Aug-July marketing year. All other Northern Hemisphere countries are on a July-June marketing year. Southern Hemisphere countries are on a calendar year indicated as the second year of the split year.

Table Grapes - The United States and Mexico are on a May-April marketing year. All other Northern Hemisphere countries are on a June-May marketing year. Southern Hemisphere countries are on a calendar year indicated as the second year of the split year.

Pears - Northern Hemisphere countries are on a July-June marketing year. Southern Hemisphere countries are on a calendar year indicated as the second year of the split year