Production

Post's total corn production estimate for MY 2014/15 (October to September) has been revised slightly upward from the USDA/Official estimate to 23.2 million metric tons (MMT), due to more complete data from the Secretariat of Agriculture, Livestock, Rural Development, Fisheries and Food (SAGARPA). Corn output was increased due to higher than expected harvested area and favorable weather conditions. Official sources stated that the rainy season was regular and timely. These same sources estimated that for the 2014 spring/summer crop cycle, which is almost complete, production could reach 18 MMT. At the same time, the expectation for the current 2013/14 fall/winter season remains optimistic. Official sources expect that production will reach approximately 5.2 MMT, similar to the level reached a year ago. The Post/New total production estimate for the MY 2013/14 has been adjusted slightly downward based on SAGARPA final information.

Consumption

The total corn consumption estimate for MY 2014/15 has been revised slightly upward from the USDA/Official estimate based on information obtained from SAGARPA and industry contacts. These contacts stated that the low domestic corn prices along with lower than expected domestic sorghum production (see Sorghum report) provoked an increase for feed and residual demand.

Stocks

The Post/New ending stocks estimate for MY 2014/15 is slightly higher than the USDA/Official estimate (2.94 MMT) as a result of higher than previously estimated domestic production. Also, the Post/New ending stocks for MY 2013/14 has been revised downward to 2.69 MMT, from USDA/Official estimate, due to lower domestic production than previously forecast.

Mexico, Corn Production, Supply and Demand for MY2012/13 to MY2014/15

Corn Mexico

2012/2013

2013/2014

2014/2015

MY Begin: Oct 2012

MY Begin: Oct 2013

MY Begin: Oct 2014

USDA Official

New Post

USDA Official

New Post

USDA Official

New Post

Area Harvested

6,896

6,896

7,052

7,052

6,95

7,08

Beginning Stocks

1,316

1,316

1,061

1,061

2,774

2,694

Production

21,591

21,591

22,96

22,88

23

23,2

MY Imports

5,676

5,676

10,954

10,954

10,9

10,9

TY Imports

5,676

5,676

10,954

10,954

10,9

10,9

TY Imp. from U.S.

4,875

4,875

10,918

10,918

0

10,79

Total Supply

28,583

28,583

34,975

34,895

36,674

36,794

MY Exports

522

522

501

501

500

500

TY Exports

522

522

501

501

500

500

Feed and Residual

11

11

15,2

15,2

16,5

16,6

FSI Consumption

16

16

16,5

16,5

16,75

16,75

Total Consumption

27

27

31,7

31,7

33,25

33,35

Ending Stocks

1,061

1,061

2,774

2,694

2,924

2,944

Total Distribution

28,583

28,583

34,975

34,895

36,674

36,794

1000 HA, 1000 MT, MT/HA