Production

The Post/New sorghum production estimate for MY 2014/15 (October/September) has been revised downward as harvested area was lower than expected in the 2014 spring/summer crop cycle. According to official sources, states such as Tamaulipas and Sinaloa planted approximately 100,000 ha less sorghum than initially expected during the 2014 spring/summer crop cycle, as growers decided to plant alternative crops, like white corn. As a result, industry sources now estimate that the 2014 spring/summer crop cycle could produce approximately 3.75 MMT of sorghum, compared with 4.3 MMT initially forecasted. This 2014 spring/summer crop cycle will account for approximately 51 percent of total sorghum production whereas the remainder of the crop will come from the 2014/15 fall-winter cycle.

Despite the fact that the official estimate indicates that sorghum production in the current 2014/15 fall-winter crop cycle could be similar to the level reached last year (near 4.3 MMT), most industry sources consider that estimation to be extremely optimistic. In Tamaulipas for example, the main sorghum producing state, production reached 3.1 MMT in the 2013/14 fall/winter crop cycle, which was considered historical by official and private sources. These sources stated that this harvest was the second largest in the state since 1980 and the result of excellent weather conditions. Industry sources consider it highly unlikely that such similar favorable weather conditions would repeat itself again in Tamaulipas in order to achieve another near record back to back sorghum crop in the 2014/15 fall-winter crop cycle.

Trade

In comparison with the USDA/Official estimate, the Post/New import estimate for MY 2014/15 has been revised upward to 250,000 MT. The difference arose from lower domestic production than previously estimated. Despite this adjustment, the estimated import level is substantially lower compared to the historical import average of the few last years (before MY 2013/14).

Consumption

The sorghum consumption estimate for MY 2014/15 has been revised slightly downward from the USDA/Official estimate based on the most recent information from private sources. Traders and buyers indicate that as a result of low corn prices and lower than estimated sorghum domestic production, some hog and poultry producers could opt to purchase more imported yellow corn for their livestock and poultry operations.

Stocks

The Post/New ending stocks estimate for MY 2014/15 has been revised downward to 593,000 MT from USDA/Official estimate, due to lower than previously expected domestic production.

Policy

Responding to demands from various grower organizations about low commodity prices and the need for more assistance at the farm level, on November 28, 2014 SAGARPA announced in Mexico's Federal Register ("Diario Oficial") specific guidelines applicable to the 2014 crop year for two new support programs available in the states of Sinaloa and Tamaulipas for sorghum growers and buyers (as well as rice supports offered in several Mexican states). In addition, on November 27, 2014, SAGARPA's agency of Commercialization and Agriculture Markets Development (ASERCA) announced updated price levels associated with the Income Target Price Program

Mexico, Sorghum Production, Supply and Demand for MY2012/13 to MY2014/15

Sorghum Mexico

2012/2013

2013/2014

2014/2015

MY Begin: Oct 2012

MY Begin: Oct 2013

MY Begin: Oct 2014

USDA Official

New Post

USDA Official

New Post

USDA Official

New Post

Area Harvested

1,644

1,644

2,073

2,073

1,9

1,8

Beginning Stocks

418

418

281

281

643

643

Production

6,174

6,174

8,5

8,5

7,7

7,3

MY Imports

1,789

1,789

162

162

100

250

TY Imports

1,789

1,789

162

162

100

250

TY Imp. from U.S.

1,36

1,36

162

162

0

250

Total Supply

8,381

8,381

8,943

8,943

8,443

8,193

MY Exports

0

0

0

0

0

0

TY Exports

0

0

0

0

0

0

Feed and Residual

8

8

8,2

8,2

7,7

7,5

FSI Consumption

100

100

100

100

100

100

Total Consumption

8,1

8,1

8,3

8,3

7,8

7,6

Ending Stocks

281

281

643

643

643

593

Total Distribution

8,381

8,381

8,943

8,943

8,443

8,193

1000 HA, 1000 MT, MT/HA