Production

The Post/New total rice production estimate for MY 2014/15 (October to September) has been revised upward from USDA/Official estimates to 226,000 MT (rough production) reflecting the most recent data from SAGARPA and industry sources. The increased rough production is equivalent to 155,000 MT of milled rice. Essentially, rice output was increased due to favorable weather conditions leading to favorable yields. In Michoacan for example, it is expected that yields will reach 9 MT/ha, in the 2014 spring/summer crop cycle, compared with the national average yield of 5.6 MT/ha.

Stocks

The Post/New ending stocks estimate for MY 2014/15 is higher than the USDA/Official estimate (195,000 MT) as a result of higher than expected domestic production.

Policy

On December 10, 2014 the Secretariat of Economy (SE) published in the "Diario Oficial" a decree that modifies the Tariff of the General Import and Export Tax Law for imported rice. The decree imposes a 9 percent tariff on imported paddy rice and a 20 percent tariff on husked, long grain and other imported rice. For several months the Mexican Rice Council (MRC) had been lobbying the SE and the SAGARPA, requesting for the re-establishment of rice import tariffs from all countries that Mexico does not have free trade agreements. The United States is exempt from the announced tariffs because of the North America Free Trade (NAFTA) Agreement it has with Mexico

Mexico, Rice Production, Supply and Demand for MY2012/13 to MY2014/15

Rice, Milled, Mexico

2012/2013

2013/2014

2014/2015

MY Begin: Oct 2012

MY Begin: Oct 2013

MY Begin: Oct 2014

USDA Official

New Post

USDA Official

New Post

USDA Official

New Post

Area Harvested

35

35

35

35

39

39

Beginning Stocks

152

152

189

189

158

158

Milled Production

131

131

131

131

147

155

Rough Production

191

191

191

191

214

226

Milling Rate (.9999)

6,87

6,87

6,87

6,87

6,87

6,87

MY Imports

743

743

700

700

775

775

TY Imports

746

746

700

700

775

775

TY Imp. from U.S.

655

655

0

514

0

590

Total Supply

1,026

1,026

1,02

1,02

1,08

1,088

MY Exports

2

2

2

2

3

3

TY Exports

2

2

2

2

5

0

Consumption and Residual

835

835

860

860

890

890

Ending Stocks

189

189

158

158

187

195

Total Distribution

1,026

1,026

1,02

1,02

1,08

1,088

1000 HA, 1000 MT, MT/HA