Post estimates corn production for crop 2014/15 at 22.5 million tons, 500,000 tons higher than our last estimate and the official USDA estimate. Very good weather since the planting corn season began in September is making almost everyone expect very good yields. Good weekly rains, plenty of subsoil humidity, and the lack of long periods of extreme high temperature (especially during mid-December/mid-January) benefitted early planted corn which is roughly estimated to account for 45-50 percent of the country's total area. This weather pattern is also helping the late corn (planted between late November/December) develop extremely well. There are some doubts on the impact of continued rainfall, as most weather forecasts predict lots of rain at least through February. However, generally robust rain during the corn season leads to increased production. Also we need to remember that due to very tight returns, many producers have applied lower technology than in past season when planting corn was profitable. Post continues to estimate 2013/14 corn production at 26 million tons with most in the market ranging between 25.5-27.0 million tons. Some sources have increased harvested area and others yields.

Exports for 2014/15 are projected at 13.5 million tons, 1.5 million tons higher than USDA. This would be as a result of higher production and to smaller ending stocks projected by USDA. As in wheat, corn exports are limited by the government and most of the time producers do not receive the price they believe they should get. Therefore, it is difficult to predict how farmer selling will evolve throughout the year with strong political and economic expectations. Corn will be harvested between March and July, presidential primaries will be in August, elections in October and the effective change of Administration in early December. Many producers (that can financially wait) will probably delay some sales in hopes of better market signals that may accompany policy changes. Overall, local traders expect a shipping pattern similar to 2013/14. So far the government has authorized exports of eight million tons. With China's recent approval of imports of corn event MIR 162, local traders expect an increase in exports. In 2013 Argentina exported 66,000 tons of corn to China, but nothing was shipped in 2014. There are two trading houses partly owned by Chinese interests which operate in the local grain market. Most traders believe that China will need to pay a premium price to buy large volumes of corn in Argentina, because if not, exporters will prefer to export to less risky markets, which they are used to deal with. Corn exports for 2013/14 continue to be estimated at 16.5 million tons, although they could finish anywhere between 16.3 and 16.5 million tons.

Corn domestic consumption for 2014/15 is increased to 9.4 million tons, the highest ever. Feeding cattle is very profitable and all the new local ethanol plants will be processing at full capacity all year around (processing approximately one million tons of corn). There is a general consensus that the different sectors (feed lot, poultry, dairy, pork, ethanol, dry and wet milling) utilize between 9-10 million tons of corn (not including corn silage). Ending stocks for 2014/15 are forecast at 1.6 million tons, 800,000 tons lower than official USDA estimates. With envisioned policy changes, the market projects that rolling stocks will trend smaller

Corn Argentina

2012/2013

2013/2014

2014/2015

Market Year Begin: Mar 2013

Market Year Begin: Mar 2014

Market Year Begin: Mar 2015

USDA Official

New Post

USDA Official

New Post

USDA Official

New Post

Area Harvested

4,000

4,000

3,400

3,400

3,000

3,000

Beginning Stocks

899

899

1,315

1,315

1,620

2,020

Production

27,000

27,000

25,000

26,000

22,000

22,500

MY Imports

3

3

5

5

10

10

TY Imports

4

4

1

1

10

10

TY Imp. from U.S.

0

0

1

1

0

0

Total Supply

27,902

27,902

26,320

27,320

23,630

24,530

MY Exports

18,687

18,687

16,000

16,500

12,000

13,500

TY Exports

22,789

22,789

12,846

12,846

12,000

13,500

Feed and Residual

5,300

5,300

5,800

5,800

6,100

6,100

FSI Consumption

2,600

2,600

2,900

3,000

3,100

3,300

Total Consumption

7,900

7,900

8,700

8,800

9,200

9,400

Ending Stocks

1,315

1,315

1,620

2,020

2,430

1,630

Total Distribution

27,902

27,902

26,320

27,320

23,630

24,530

1000 HA, 1000 MT, MT/HA