Production:

Post's corn production estimate remains unchanged from the previous report.

Consumption:

MY 2014/15 corn consumption remains unchanged at 10.1 million tons from the previous forecast, which is composed of 8 million tons for feed purpose and 2.1 million tons for food, seed and industrial (FSI) purpose. Greater demand for feed corn will offset the decrease of feed grade wheat, which is less competitive than corn in the global market.

MY 2013/14 corn consumption was about 9.9 million tons as estimated in the previous report, consisting of 7.8 million tons for feed and 2.1 million tons for processing, up 17 percent from the previous marketing year due to greater demand for corn in the livestock sectors driven primarily by poultry.

MY 2013/14 compound feed production was at 18.8 million tons, just 0.3 percent lower than the previous marketing year, due to strong demand from the poultry sector as a result of greater demand for chicken during the summer.

Poultry compound feed production increased by 8.1 percent over the previous marketing year, while compound feed production for cattle declined by 2.8 percent, followed by compound feed production for swine, which decreased by 1.4 percent. Compound feed production for other animals sharply declined by 11.4 percent due to a highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) outbreak that greatly reduced the duck inventory.

Post forecasts MY 2014/15 compound feed production at 18.5 million tons as an initial projection. Ongoing outbreaks of AI and foot and mouth disease (FMD) may adjust the level of compound feed production later.

The corn inclusion rate in total compound feed production grew to 41.2 percent in MY 2013/14, up 6.9 percent from the previous year with feed wheat use declining.

In MY 2013/14, processing corn consumption increased by 7 percent to more than 2 million tons from 1.9 million tons in MY 2012/13. Wet millers consumed 96.5 percent of total processing corn with the remainder for dry millers. Major corn processors have continued using traditional corn imported from Serbia, Ukraine, Russia, Hungary, France, Australia and Brazil, and non-GM corn imported from the United States for food. Many Korean food processing companies are reluctant to use ingredients sourced from biotech corn.

Korea: Total Corn Utilization

(Oct./Sept., 1,000 MT)

Marketing

Year

Feed

Processing

a/

Food

b/

Total

2008/09

6,368

1,418

108

7,894

2009/10

6,362

1,928

92

8,382

2010/11

6,074

2,051

89

8,214

2011/12

5,690

2,036

89

7,815

2012/13

6,483

1,900

98

8,481

2013/14

7,762

2,034

95

9,891

2014/15 c/

8,000

2,000

93

10,100

Source: Korea Feed Association (KFA), Korea Corn Processing Industry Association (KOCPIA)

a/ Used for wet and dry milling process based on imported corn.

b/ For on-farm human consumption (on-the-cob) or snack food consumed on-the-cob, as puffed kernels or as corn tea. Imported white corn for popping has been included since MY 2004.

c/ FAS Seoul forecast

Korea: Monthly Corn Use

(1,000 MT)

Month

Feed Corn

Processing Corn

MY 2012/13

MY 2013/14

MY 2012/13

MY 20133/14

October

508

588

174

175

November

512

596

169

165

December

559

687

160

164

January

580

703

158

161

February

513

632

137

148

March

533

653

140

180

April

572

664

158

171

May

574

669

161

177

June

522

646

153

176

July

553

659

173

184

August

528

626

163

175

September

529

639

156

159

Total

6,483

7,762

1,900

2,034

Source: Korea Feed Association (KFA), Korea Corn Processing Industry Association (KOCPIA)

Korea: Feed Ingredient Use for Compound Feed Production

(October/September, 1,000 MT)

Items

MY 2011/12

MY 2012/13

MY 2013/14

MY 2014/15a/

Sub. Total Grains and Grain Substitutes

11,569

12,115

12,080

12,100

- Wheat

3,065

2,710

1,633

1,400

- Corn

5,690

6,483

7,762

8,000

- Other Grains and Grain Substitute b/

2,814

2,992

2,685

2,700

Others c/

6,431

6,698

6,758

6,400

Grand Total

18,000

18,883

18,838

18,500

Source: Korea Feed Association (KFA)

a/ FAS Seoul forecast

b/ includes Tapioca, bran and gluten feed.

c/ includes vegetable protein meal, animal protein, minerals/additives, tallow, DDGS and molasses.

Korea: Compound Feed Production by Species

(October/September, 1,000 MT)

Species

MY 2011/12

MY 2012/13

MY 2013/14a/

MY 2014/15b/

Poultry

4,821

4,726

5,107

5,000

Swine

5,322

6,100

6,015

6,000

Cattle

6,321

6,572

6,388

6,100

Othersd/

1,477

1,483

1,314

1,400

Total

17,940

18,881

18,824

18,500

Source: Ministry for Agriculture, Food, and Rural Affairs (MAFRA)

a/ Preliminary

b/ FAS/Seoul forecast based on the first eleven months data

d/ include ducks, rabbit, horse, sheep, deer, quail etc

Korea: Feed Ingredients Use for MY2011-MY2012

(1,000 MT, October/September)

INGREDIENT

MY2012/2013

MY2013/2014

TOTAL

DOM 1/

%

TOTAL

DOM 1/

%

GRAINS:

CORN

6,483

-

34.3

7,762

-

41.2

SORGHUM

-

-

-

-

-

-

WHEAT

2,710

-

14.4

1,633

-

8.7

BARLEY

31

3

0.2

28

2

0.1

RYE

1

1

-

0

0

-

OATS

2

1

-

3

1

-

GSP/BROKEN GRAIN

88

85

0.5

88

88

0.5

TAPIOCA

383

-

2.0

284

-

1.5

LUPIN SEED

143

13

0.8

131

6

0.7

OTHERS

182

177

1.0

173

167

0.9

SUB TOTAL

10,023

280

53.1

10,102

264

53.6

GRAIN BY-PRODUCTS:

WHEAT BRAN

611

392

3.2

599

393

3.2

RICE BRAN

205

205

1.1

187

187

1.0

BARLEY BRAN

-

-

-

-

-

-

CORN BRAN

1

1

-

2

2

-

GLUTEN FEED

972

428

5.1

848

374

4.5

OTHERS

373

277

2.0

342

266

1.8

SUB TOTAL

2,162

1,303

11.4

1,978

1,222

10.5

ANIMAL PROTEIN:

FISH MEAL

22

16

0.1

18

12

0.1

MEAT & BONE MEAL

20

20

0.1

22

21

0.1

OTHERS

140

137

0.7

146

143

0.8

SUB TOTAL

182

173

1.0

186

176

1.0

VEGETABLE PROTEIN:

SOYBEAN MEAL

1,986

445

10.5

2,079

411

11.0

RAPESEED MEAL

412

7

2.2

530

6

2.8

SESAMESEED MEAL

23

23

0.1

23

23

0.1

PERILLA SEED MEAL

3

3

-

3

3

-

CORN GLUTEN MEAL

83

78

0.4

81

73

0.4

DDGS

457

135

2.4

536

158

2.8

COTTONSEED MEAL

7

1

-

1

0

-

PARM KERNEL MEAL

782

18

4.1

760

8

4.0

COPRA MEAL

602

5

3.2

399

2

2.1

OTHERS

268

191

1.4

262

216

1.4

SUB TOTAL

4,623

906

24.5

4,674

900

24.8

ADDITIVES/MINERALS:

CALCIUM PHOSPHATE

69

53

0.4

67

54

0.4

LIMESTONE

471

471

2.5

480

480

2.5

SALT

69

68

0.4

67

67

0.4

OTHER

282

281

1.5

291

289

1.5

SUB TOTAL

891

873

4.7

905

890

4.8

OTHER INGREDIENTS:

TALLOW

320

305

1.7

316

312

1.7

MOLASSES

476

390

2.5

461

383

2.4

UREA

1

1

-

2

2

-

OTHER

205

181

1.1

214

192

1.1

SUB TOTAL

1,002

877

5.3

993

889

5.3

GRAND TOTAL

18,883

4,412

100.0

18,838

4,341

100.0

Source: Korea Feed Association (KFA)

1/ Domestic Products

Trade:

MY 2014/15 total corn imports remain unchanged from 9.6 million tons forecast in the previous report due to limited feed grade wheat supply in tandem with high level of animal inventories despite outbreaks of AI and FMD affecting poultry and swine. Processing corn imports should remain stagnant at 2 million tons.

As of early January 2015, importers contracted 4.8 million tons of corn for October 2014 through April 2015 deliveries, continuing to make contracts for May 2015 arrival onward. Most feed corn contracts are optional origin at seller's option from South American countries, Eastern Europe, or the United States with a price range of USD 211-269 per metric ton CNF, while corn processors have contracted for No. 2 GM/non-GM yellow corn from South America or the United States, and conventional corn from Eastern Europe with a price range of USD 215-276 per metric ton CNF. Most recent buying contracts were stabilized in the range of USD 211-217 per ton CNF for feed corn and USD 224-227 for processing corn.

In MY 2014/15, U.S. corn exports to Korea are revised to decrease to 4.8 million tons, down 1.2 million tons from post's previous forecast due to greater supply of competitively priced Eastern European corn in recent corn contracts in tandem with expected competitively priced South American corn for the later part of the marketing year. For the first three months of the marketing year, U.S. corn market share was at 35 percent.

Korea: Corn Imports

(1,000MT, Customs Cleared Basis)

Marketing Year

From World

From the U. S.

U. S. Share

Feed

Processing

Total

Feed

Processing

Total

%

07/08

7,680

1,629

9,309

7,259

1,077

8,336

90

08/09

5,781

1,431

7,212

4,883

921

5,804

80

09/10

6,457

2,003

8,460

6,097

1,407

7,504

89

10/11

6,060

2,047

8,107

5,183

1,133

6,316

78

11/12

5,600

2,035

7,635

3,450

307

3,757

49

12/13

6,230

1,944

8,174

341

115

456

6

13/14

8,319

2,086

10,405

3,769

842

4,611

44

14/15a/

7,600

2,000

9,600

4,000

800

4,800

50

Source: Korea Customs Service

a/ FAS/Seoul forecast

Korea: Monthly Corn Import

(1,000 MT, Customs Cleared Basis)

Month

Feed Corn

Processing Corn

MY 2013/14

MY 2014/15

MY 2013/14

MY 2014/15

October

620

846

131

181

November

631

465

178

183

December

975

750

222

137

Sub Total

2,226

2,061

531

501

January

885

na

118

na

February

829

na

170

na

March

488

na

158

na

April

664

na

234

na

May

698

na

166

na

June

540

na

300

na

July

591

na

85

na

August

658

na

112

na

September

740

na

212

na

Total

8,319

na

2,086

na

Source: Korea Customs Service

Korea: MY 2014/15 Corn Contracts 1/ by Estimated Time of Arrival (ETA)

(Unit: 1,000 MT, as of early January 2015)

ETA

U.S.

Europe

SOAM

Others 2/

Total

Price3/

Oct. 2014

0

0

0

639

639

265

Nov.

0

0

0

805

805

255

Dec.

110

55

0

497

662

247

Jan. 2015

0

0

0

586

586

222

Feb

62

55

0

532

649

215

Mar

123

0

0

464

587

216

Apr

115

0

0

637

752

215

May

0

0

0

55

55

224

Aug

0

0

0

53

53

227

Total

410

110

0

4,268

4,788

Source: Local Grain Traders

1/ reflecting 90-95 percent of actual contracts due to some omitted contracts data

2/ optional origins at seller's option out of USA, SOAM or Europe

3/ USD/MT, CNF on Weighted Average

Production, Supply and Demand Data Statistics:

Corn PS&D

Corn

2012/2013

2013/2014

2014/2015

Market Begin Year

Oct 2012

Oct 2013

Oct 2014

Korea, South

USDA Official

New post

USDA Official

New post

USDA Official

New post

Area Harvested

17

17

16

0

16

0

Beginning Stocks

1,484

1,484

1,260

1,260

1,846

1,854

Production

83

83

80

80

78

78

MY Imports

8,174

8,174

10,406

10,405

9,600

9,600

TY Imports

8,174

8,174

10,406

10,405

9,600

9,600

TY Imp. from U.S.

296

456

5,324

4,611

0

4,800

Total Supply

9,741

8,257

11,746

11,745

11,524

11,532

MY Exports

0

0

0

0

0

0

TY Exports

0

0

0

0

0

0

Feed and Residual

6,483

6,483

7,800

7,762

8,000

8,000

FSI Consumption

1,998

1,998

2,100

2,129

2,100

2,100

Total Consumption

8,481

8,481

9,900

9,891

10,100

10,100

Ending Stocks

1,260

1,260

1,846

1,854

1,424

1,432

Total Distribution

9,741

9,741

11,746

11,745

11,524

11,532

1000 HA, 1000 MT, MT/HA


Korea: Animal Inventory

(1,000 Head, 1,000 Birds, as of Dec. 2014)

Animal

Year

March

June

September

December

Beef Cattle

2011

2,881

3,053

3,044

2,950

2012

2,940

3,109

3,143

3,059

2013

2,966

3,064

3,043

2,918

2014

2,811

2,879

2,820

2759

2015

2,681c/

na

na

na

Dairy Cattle

2011

396

403

404

404

2012

404

410

417

420

2013

420

419

422

424

2014

428

424

429

431

2015

430-432c/

na

na

na

Swine

2011

7,036

7,330

7,783

8,171

2012

8,852

9,432

9,937

9,916

2013

10,107

10,181

10,188

9,912

2014

9,698

9,680

9,966

10,090

2015

9,800-10,000c/

9,900-10100c/

na

na

Layer a/

2010

62,524

61,586

60,095

61,700

2011

61,025

60,723

61,212

62,425

2012

63,200

61,953

61,326

61,344

2013

62,340

60,610

62,674

64,824

2014

64,572

62,851

65,263

67,674

Broiler b/

2010

72,692

101,690

71,271

77,871

2011

69,932

110,122

71,038

76,435

2012

69,387

97,750

68,540

76,130

2013

71,938

95,898

64,505

76,487

2014

77,879

103,593

75,846

77,746

Source: Korea Statistics (KOSTAT) and Korea Rural Economic Institute (KREI)

a/ Excluding breeders.

b/ Excluding multi-use broilers

c/ KREI forecast