Production

Post soybean production numbers for 2013/14 and 2014/15 remain unchanged. Rainfall data shows that central Java received above average rainfall in November, supporting dryland soy planting. East Java rainfall was about 30 percent lower than the five year average for November rainfall in the region. However, industry sources indicate that sufficient rainfalls arrived later in the month, implying that soybean harvest in the region will be offset to late February/early March. Indonesian planting data shows that plantings in the September-December period are approximately 5 percent above the same period in 2013.

The possibility of an El Nino phenomena has been further downgraded by the Indonesian weather service. A late onset, weak El Nino still remains a possibility, albeit a small possibility. If the weather phenomena occurs, soybean ripening, harvest and storage will likely benefit from the additional daylight and dryness.

Trade

Complete marketing year (MY) data for 2013/14 shows final imports to Indonesia at 2.24 million, revised slightly downward from 2.25 million in Post's November update. Post's MY 2014/15 import estimate remains unchanged. As expected, early shipments for MY 2014/15 are ahead of pace. November 2014 shipments from the United States to Indonesia were especially high, approaching 240,000 tons. This pace is expected to continue through December, tapering off in 2015. Industry sources confirm the trend, noting that first quarter marketing year imports are about 30 percent ahead of their regular total. The fast import pace is likely the result of low soybean prices due to abundant supplies and new crop. Post maintains the position that Indonesian advance purchasing will grow 2013/14 ending stocks, which will then be drawn down through 2014/15. As a result, it appears unlikely that 2014/15 imports will exceed 2013/14.

Industry sources stated that port slowdowns in the United States have not led to significant problems with soybean shipments. They note that bulk shipments out of the Gulf are not delayed, but that container shipments from the west coast still face up to three week delays in January.

Indonesian trade policy under the new Jokowi government maintains its aspirations for self-sufficiency in soybean production. The government, however, has yet to take specific action that will significantly increase local production. Industry sources report that the Indonesian government may impose a five percent import tariff in early 2015, although there is no government confirmation of this possibility.

Consumption

Post's 2013/14 and 2014/15 consumption estimates remain unchanged. Post expects that consumption will continue to grow in line with population growth. Recent trade policy actions have banned popular and inexpensive beef offal as well as poultry breeding stock. The expected increase in poultry prices, as well as the unavailability of alternate protein sources supports additional consumption of soybean and fish products. Indonesian soybean consumption is centered on the tofu and tempeh industry, accounting for about 90 percent of Indonesia's soybean consumption.

Stocks

2013/14 ending stocks have been adjusted downward, supporting complete marketing year import data, which is now estimated at 2.24 million metric tons. 2013/14 ending stocks are estimated at 225 thousand metric tons, reflecting high end of year imports due to ample global supplies and low prices. 2014/15 ending stocks are expected to decline as soybean prices firm up and imports decline. The 2014/15 ending stock estimate is revised slightly downward from 75 to 65 thousand metric tons, in line with 2013/14 ending stock revisions

Oilseed, Soybean

Indonesia

2012/2013

2013/2014

2014/2015

Market Year Begin: Oct 2012

Market Year Begin: Oct 2013

Market Year Begin: May 2014

USDA Official

New Post

USDA Official

New Post

USDA Official

New Post

Area Planted

450

550

450

550

450

550

Area Harvested

450

450

450

450

450

450

Beginning Stocks

51

51

15

15

55

225

Production

600

600

620

675

620

620

MY Imports

1,795

1,795

2,050

2,240

2,200

2,000

MY Imp. from U.S.

1,669

1,669

1,725

2,150

1,825

1,825

MY Imp. from EU

0

0

0

0

0

0

Total Supply

2,446

2,446

2,685

2,930

2,875

2,845

MY Exports

2

2

1

1

0

0

MY Exp. to EU

0

0

0

0

0

0

Crush

0

0

0

0

0

0

Food Use Dom. Cons.

2,400

2,400

2,600

2,645

2,750

2,750

Feed Waste Dom. Cons.

29

29

29

59

30

30

Total Dom. Cons.

2,429

2,429

2,629

2,704

2,780

2,780

Ending Stocks

15

15

55

225

95

65

Total Distribution

2,446

2,446

2,685

2,930

2,875

2,845

CY Imports

1,826

1,785

2,150

2,000

2,200

2,000

CY Imp. from U.S.

1,684

1,643

1,750

1,850

1,850

1,850

CY Exports

2

2

1

1

0

0

CY Exp. to U.S.

0

0

0

0

0

0

TS=TD

0

0

0

0

0

0