Corn Production: 2014/2015 is estimated at 76 mmt, a four percent decrease from the previous year. The second "safrinha" crop, which constitutes approximately 60 percent of the total crop, needs to be planted by February 20th to ensure that it gets enough moisture by the start of the dry season in May. This year, soybean planting was delayed due to dry conditions in October, and the harvest will be later than normal during the first two weeks of February. The "safrinha" corn crop is planted directly behind the soybean harvest, so if the harvest is further delayed by rains, it could compromise the "safrinha" crop, making planting riskier. Additionally, January has been unusually dry in the Central West region, which could signal an earlier end to the rainy season if the dryness continues into February. Despite the potential for weather concerns, global corn prices have improved somewhat and the strong dollar is incentivizing exports, so a dramatic reduction in production is not expected.

2013/2014 corn production is forecast at 79.5 mmt, a 2 percent decrease from the previous year's record crop.

Corn Trade:MY 2013/2014 corn exports are estimated at 21.5 mmt, a 14 percent decrease from the last year's record crop, which was due to near perfect weather for the "safrinha" corn crop. Typically, the first crop corn is used for domestic consumption, while the "safrinha" crop goes to export. While a decrease from the previous year, it's still a good environment for exports. Over half of the sales have been to Iran, Vietnam, South Korea, and Taiwan. Despite China's recently approval of the Syngenta biotech event MIR 162 in December, and the signing of a corn trade agreement between Brazil and China in 2013, there were only 24 thousand metric tons shipped to China in 2014, constituting less than half a percent of all exports. The weaker Brazilian currency is good for exports, but will make purchasing inputs more expensive, which are primarily imported.

MY 2014/2015 exports are estimated at 21 mmt, a slight decrease from the previous year but in line with yearly trends.

Corn Consumption: 2013/2014 feed use is expected to increase slightly to 46.5 mmt on the growing poultry and swine sectors. There have been media reports of the corn ethanol gaining momentum due to low global prices over the last two years. In fact, DuPont, Dedini Industries Brazil, and the Argentine firm Porta recently set up a partnership to become a reference point for the supply of technology and equipment for corn ethanol production, signaling that corn ethanol production in Brazil will continue to grow

Corn

2012/2013

2013/2014

2014/2015

Market Begin Year

Mar 2012

Mar 2013

Mar 2014

Brazil

USDA Official

New post

USDA Official

New post

USDA Official

New post

Area Harvested

15,800

15,800

15,700

15,800

15,000

15,000

Beginning Stocks

9,212

9,212

14,150

14,150

17,750

17,950

Production

81,500

81,500

79,300

79,500

75,000

76,000

MY Imports

886

886

800

800

800

800

TY Imports

871

871

846

846

800

800

TY Imp. from U.S.

0

0

0

0

0

0

Total Supply

91,598

91,598

94,250

94,450

93,550

94,750

MY Exports

24,948

24,948

21,500

21,500

19,500

21,000

TY Exports

26,044

26,044

22,041

22,041

22,000

22,000

Feed and Residual

44,500

44,500

46,000

46,000

47,500

46,500

FSI Consumption

8,000

8,000

9,000

9,000

9,000

9,000

Total Consumption

52,500

52,500

55,000

55,000

56,500

55,500

Ending Stocks

14,150

14,150

17,750

17,950

17,550

18,250

Total Distribution

91,598

91,598

94,250

94,450

93,550

94,750

1000 HA, 1000 MT, MT/HA